98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Brent
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#121 Postby Brent » Sun Jul 23, 2006 10:36 am

Looks like an interesting couple of days. :)
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#122 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jul 23, 2006 10:39 am

I'm going to have to watch this to see if I should come home for it or not. Wouldn't want to stay in FL for another week if there is going to be any kind of damage to my area in Houston. Hopefully if it develops it stays weak and is only a rain-maker for TX.
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#123 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:00 am

looking at the sat pics this morning, I think there is a decent shot of a depression forming in this area within the next 2 days or so.
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#124 Postby southerngale » Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:02 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I'm going to have to watch this to see if I should come home for it or not. Wouldn't want to stay in FL for another week if there is going to be any kind of damage to my area in Houston. Hopefully if it develops it stays weak and is only a rain-maker for TX.


I believe the general consensus is whatever it is goes in well south of Houston. I realize that could change, but I think that's what is expected.
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#125 Postby skysummit » Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:03 am

Geez...I'm on the road right now to Orlando and just my luck, the gulf is lighting up. That figures! At least I'll have something to do in the hotel at night though! :D
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#126 Postby storms in NC » Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:08 am

skysummit wrote:Geez...I'm on the road right now to Orlando and just my luck, the gulf is lighting up. That figures! At least I'll have something to do in the hotel at night though! :D
that is a long ride. I went from ft Myers to NOLA one time took 2 days. Be safe
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#127 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:09 am

I think we might get Chris out of this. I'd give it a 40% chance of development this week.
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#128 Postby Portastorm » Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:09 am

This figures ... I'm in northeastern Ohio for this week with family ... I'm going to miss all the fun down there! Krikey! :x
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#129 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:10 am

wxman57 wrote:Currently, looks like outflow from Emilia is causing shear across 98L. Low to mid-level steering should take 98L inland into Mexico around 23-24N tomorrow night. If it does spin up, it may do so only briefly before it moves ashore, like Bret and Gert of 2005. Doesn't look like it'll affect Texas. I sure hope this doesn't become "Chris". Chris is always a sheared TS. :-(


That is what I am thinking. It will become Chris but instantly make landfall in Mexico.
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#130 Postby chadtm80 » Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:16 am

98L now on our homepage... http://www.storm2k.org/wx/
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#131 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:25 am

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

The pressure is still steady, but the winds have been as well....
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#132 Postby shaggy » Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:27 am

to me it looks very disorganized at the moment it appears to have an outflow blowing out from the north side and thats not good for development. It might take a few days and i am not sure it has that kind of time due to land interaction!
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#133 Postby Starburst » Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:28 am

Houston is now mentioning it:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1059 AM CDT SUN JUL 23 2006

.UPDATE...
PROBABLY SHOULD HAVE MENTIONED IN THE 1038 AM DISCUSSION THAT SOME
MODELS ARE INDICATING POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS (THE 12Z NAM IS ACTUALLY BRINGING
THIS SYSTEM NORTHWARD ALONG THE MEXICO AND TEXAS COASTS THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH A LANDFALL AROUND THE ROCKPORT AREA). THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK SAYS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. IF NECESSARY...A PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW. WHETHER THIS DEVELOPS TROPICALLY OR
NOT...WE EXPECT TO SEE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FROM AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THIS IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION. 42
&&
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#134 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:29 am

New 12Z GFS shows no development, just alot of rain! It has the shear relaxing late Monday.
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#135 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:29 am

wow...
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#136 Postby skysummit » Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:31 am

Of course the GFS shows no development. When has it ever this season before one of the two were born?
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#137 Postby NDG » Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:32 am

Looking at the latest 12z GFS run mid & upper level forecast, I think this system will have a more northerly track than indicated by the NAM model.
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#138 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:33 am

NDG wrote:Looking at the latest 12z GFS run mid & upper level forecast, I think this system will have a more northerly track than indicated by the NAM model.
Well the NAM is showing a pretty notherly track too. It has it making landfall near (or just west of) the TX/LA border.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#139 Postby Yankeegirl » Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:34 am

It doesnt matter where it goes, just send us some rain!!!
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#140 Postby NDG » Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:35 am

skysummit wrote:Of course the GFS shows no development. When has it ever this season before one of the two were born?


For some reason the GFS does not have a good record for forecasting tropical development in the BOC.
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