Long Range GFS Model Discussion

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

18z GFS at 384 hours going to August 5.Nothing stronger than a wave yet in this run,although a few weak low pressures appear and something trys to form near the Bahamas.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

00z GFS at 384 hours loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

6z GFS at 384 loop.

Above are the loops of the 00z and 6z runs of the GFS that go to August 6,which show some low pressures especially in the Eastern Atlantic but anything stronger to the point it may be a TD.But is the best thing that GFS has shown this year that may develop down the road.Now let's see a trend for this in the next runs.

[HurricaneHunter914]

So far the GFS has shown countless low pressure systems in the Atlantic and only Alberto and Beryl have been correct.

[boca]

I wonder if the GFS will pick up on the spin at 33W and 8N.

[cycloneye]

I wonder if the GFS will pick up on the spin at 33W and 8N.

Let's see if the 12z shows something later today.

[SouthFloridawx]

I wonder if the GFS will pick up on the spin at 33W and 8N.

Let's see if the 12z shows something later today.

Boca, I posted the models in your spin thread around 33W.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

12z GFS loop at 384 hours.This run shows several weak lows with strong waves emerging Africa thru August 6.But nothing that appears to be a TD.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

18z GFS loop at 384 hours going to August 6.This run shows potential for development in two areas,one east of the Carolinas and the other in the Tropical Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands.

[gatorcane]

What is interesting about these long range GFS runs is that each frame shows

1) A strong Azores High
2) A persistent Bermuda High

It's a good thing nothing is developing because right now, any CV storm will likely take a path right through the islands and into the SE US...likely through FL.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Above is the 12z GFS loop at 384 hours going thru August 7.This run shows a low pressure developing South of the Cape Verde Islands but it moves WNW away from the islands.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Above is the 18z GFS at 384 hours going thru August 7.This run shows Tropical Waves moving thru the Atlantic with one low pressure appearing south of the Cape Verde Islands.But so far since I started this thread nothing that appears to be stronger than a Tropical Wave shows up.I suspect that as the runs go deeper into August things will show up more stronger than a wave.What I see is a Bermuda High present in the majority of the runs so far.However that high sometimes appear weak and displaced eastward.

[gatorcane]

Here is the GFS 144 hours showing a very weak low pressure area of Africa in the MDR. It also shows a monster Atlantic ridge that will push this very weak area westward.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

Here is the MM5FSU showing a huge ridge. We'll need to watch this ridge as it seems very persistent this summer:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... hour=120hr

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

0z GFS loop at 384 hours going to August 8.Still shows the low pressure in the eastern atlantic moving west and then turn more north at the end of run.

[Nimbus]

The strong Bermuda high seems quite persistant throughout this run. The odds of an east coast trough coming along at just the right time to pull a system north of the islands seems a little low.

Wonder if later runs will have the trough dig or move the blocking ridge back west again? Any bets?

[weatherwindow]

based on the persistent longwave ridge-trough pattern over CONUS...my bets would be on recurvature of any longtrack system approaching 60-70deg W, north of about 14degN...IMHO.....rich

[southerngale]

You can continue to post in this thread if you'd like, but we've decided not to have an "official" thread for all long range GFS discussions. Although some may like it this way, many members don't want to read an entire thread about all long range GFS discussions and would rather see a thread title about GFS showing development somewhere specific because that would most likely catch people's attention. Also, we'd really like to get away from everyone thinking they have to post in this "official" thread, etc. If you think it is significant enough for a new thread, it probably is. Everyone doesn't read every post in every thread, so let's also not jump on people who happen to repeat something that someone else already said. Obvious duplicate threads may still be locked though.