98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Stratosphere747]

Looks like recon is confirmed...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 231230
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0830 AM EDT SUN 23 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-054

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 24/1530Z
D. 23.0N 97.0W
E. 24/1730Z TO 25/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[tailgater]

Matt do you mean Chris?

Thank you, I know it's Sunday but really.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The Mobile AFD this morning also mentions the GFS moving a weak low towards the north central gulf by the middle of the week. Why are the New Orleans and Mobile offices stating whatever may come of this move north and everyone else says NNW into south Texas or Mexico?

[KatDaddy]

The Houston-Galveston AFD does not even mention it however the Corpus Christi AFD does. Its up the air as to what is really going to happen. The disturbance looks to have some outflow but its also very close to the Mexican Coast.

[canegrl04]

We are parched dry and sweltering in North Texas.I wouldn't mind(possible) Chris landing on the Texas/LA border .Hopefully as no more than a cat 1

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The Lake Charles AFD does not make much of it either. Just says increasing mid/upper level moisture will work north from the s. GOM by Wed.

[wxman57]

Currently, looks like outflow from Emilia is causing shear across 98L. Low to mid-level steering should take 98L inland into Mexico around 23-24N tomorrow night. If it does spin up, it may do so only briefly before it moves ashore, like Bret and Gert of 2005. Doesn't look like it'll affect Texas. I sure hope this doesn't become "Chris". Chris is always a sheared TS.

[perk]

Iwould imagine that some of the NWS offices are waiting to see what the TPC says at their next update before they show some real interest.

[wxman57]

One thing I notice is that convection continues to pop up here and there. For an LLC to develop, convection must persist in a single area for 24 hours or so. That's not happening yet.

[southerngale]

Ok I was slightly wrong earlier on this system. But any ways lets see if we can get christ to form!!!

He formed over 2000 years ago, but perhaps we oughta continue this conversation in the Off Topic forum.

The Mobile AFD this morning also mentions the GFS moving a weak low towards the north central gulf by the middle of the week. Why are the New Orleans and Mobile offices stating whatever may come of this move north and everyone else says NNW into south Texas or Mexico?

Hopefully one of the mets will answer you as I was wondering the same thing. I saw early this morning that whatever it is/will be, should likely move into NE Mexico or Deep South Texas, so I wondered why some offices mentioned the north central Gulf. Perhaps just following different models?


And to canegrl04...I really hope you get your much-needed rain, but I'd prefer not to take another hurricane hit, even a cat. 1, for you to get it.
I'll try to send some rain your way, though.

[ammmyjjjj]

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

Current model plots

[SouthFloridawx]

I am not a Pro-Met but, looking at the GFS 850mb Vorticity I see an weak area of low pressure moving from the BOC into Northern Mexico and the Southern Texas coast likely being affected by the rainfall on the northern fringes of this suspect area.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation



NAM shows this same area as moving northward into the texas coast.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[SouthFloridawx]

Ok I was slightly wrong earlier on this system. But any ways lets see if we can get christ to form!!!

He formed over 2000 years ago, but perhaps we oughta continue this conversation in the Off Topic forum.

The Mobile AFD this morning also mentions the GFS moving a weak low towards the north central gulf by the middle of the week. Why are the New Orleans and Mobile offices stating whatever may come of this move north and everyone else says NNW into south Texas or Mexico?

Hopefully one of the mets will answer you as I was wondering the same thing. I saw early this morning that whatever it is/will be, should likely move into NE Mexico or Deep South Texas, so I wondered why some offices mentioned the north central Gulf. Perhaps just following different models?


And to canegrl04...I really hope you get your much-needed rain, but I'd prefer not to take another hurricane hit, even a cat. 1, for you to get it.
I'll try to send some rain your way, though.

Looking at the run from the 6Z it seems like these are two seperate events. This area seems likely to be in the Central GOM and slowly moving northward towards the Central Gulf Coast. Nothing to raise brows at yet but, if it is indicating something it... should be monitored.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Stratosphere747]

BOC buoy shows some decent winds over the last hour, but the pressure remains steady.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

[KFDM Meteorologist]

New 12Z models showing upper level winds weakening during the next 24 Hours. System could develop and move north. Bottom line is alot of rain for Texas this week.

[perk]

KFDM we appreciate the info you provide. Please keep us posted.

[Frank P]

This IR loop shows the activity on a slow NNW to N drift as best I can tell, at least the tops of em are moving in that general direction.... convection also appears to be on the down side the past couple of hours...

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... &type=mbir

[Starburst]

What exactly does this mean? Are we not seeing the whole picture because of this?

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY OVER S MEXICO AND THE E PACIFIC REGION AS WELL AS BEING
BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS MASKING THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N FROM 90W-97W.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 231525
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NORTHWESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR... IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER
WATER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

[HURAKAN]

At least something to keep an eye. If it moves toward Texas it will at least bring a relief from the exausting heat.