98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[tailgater]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/SCA ... 0_-100.gif
7-23 0600 Quikscat.

[Starburst]

Yes I would say convection has fired up I actually think it is a larger area than before it went poof last night

[Thunder44]

Veracruz is reporting has been reporting light W to NW winds the last few hours.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMVR.html

Bouy 42055 in the BOC has been reporting E to SE winds the last couple hours. Higest winds one-min avergage wind speed 18.5 kts.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

Surface pressures are around 1011mb to 1012mbs. I also see some anticylcone outlfow and turning aloft on the infrared imagery. I believe a broad area of low pressure is there.

[P.K.]

This is now 98L on the NRL page.

[cycloneye]

[tailgater]

AFD from New Orleans

THE GFS SHOWS A
DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE WESTERN GULF TOWARD LOUISIANA
MIDWEEK...GIVING ANOTHER BUMP IN PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA.
AFTER THIS POPS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA

AFD from Houston doesn't mention it at all.

[tailgater]

This is now 98L on the NRL page.

Wow I just checked that site 20 mins. ago and found nothing, you gotta be on your toes around here.

[rockyman]

I wonder if we'll get tropical models for this run...we still have about 30 minutes...

[Stratosphere747]

The building High in the Gulf should push whatever this is towards Mexico or southern Texas. As we know things could change.

Houston has not mentioned it, but Corpus did....

[cycloneye]

I wonder if we'll get tropical models for this run...we still have about 30 minutes...

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982006) ON 20060723 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060723 0600 060723 1800 060724 0600 060724 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.1N 94.4W 20.8N 95.1W 21.8N 96.0W 23.3N 97.0W
BAMM 20.1N 94.4W 21.1N 95.6W 22.2N 96.8W 23.7N 98.1W
A98E 20.1N 94.4W 21.1N 95.0W 22.1N 95.3W 23.9N 95.4W
LBAR 20.1N 94.4W 21.1N 95.0W 22.6N 95.7W 24.6N 96.5W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060725 0600 060726 0600 060727 0600 060728 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.8N 98.0W 26.7N 99.2W 27.6N 100.6W 28.9N 103.7W
BAMM 25.2N 99.2W 27.1N 100.8W 28.1N 102.3W 29.0N 105.4W
A98E 24.9N 95.8W 25.3N 96.1W 25.6N 96.8W 28.6N 98.3W
LBAR 26.9N 96.7W 31.0N 94.7W 33.3N 91.4W 35.2N 87.3W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 46KTS 47KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.1N LONCUR = 94.4W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 19.1N LONM12 = 93.6W DIRM12 = 326DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 18.0N LONM24 = 92.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


rockyman here they are.

[Nimbus]

The anticyclone can be seen in the water vapor imagery creeping northeast to where it will meet the trough. Once the trough moves out it looks like a big upper level high will move east from the western states. Unless this high bridges with the anticyclone that is developing over the gulf there will not be much steering in a few days.

[Starburst]

Accuweathers real time shows these tracks

[HURAKAN]

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982006) ON 20060723 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060723 1200 060724 0000 060724 1200 060725 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.9N 95.0W 21.6N 95.6W 22.8N 96.3W 24.3N 97.1W
BAMM 20.9N 95.0W 21.8N 96.2W 22.8N 97.6W 24.2N 99.0W
A98E 20.9N 95.0W 22.2N 95.8W 23.4N 96.2W 25.2N 96.4W
LBAR 20.9N 95.0W 21.9N 95.9W 23.7N 96.8W 25.9N 97.3W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060725 1200 060726 1200 060727 1200 060728 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.6N 98.0W 27.6N 98.9W 29.2N 101.5W 30.6N 105.2W
BAMM 25.4N 100.4W 26.9N 102.2W 27.6N 104.6W 28.8N 108.0W
A98E 26.4N 97.0W 27.6N 97.6W 29.0N 99.4W 31.3N 101.6W
LBAR 28.2N 97.2W 31.7N 94.8W 33.7N 91.8W 35.7N 87.6W
SHIP 39KTS 44KTS 47KTS 49KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.9N LONCUR = 95.0W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 19.7N LONM12 = 94.0W DIRM12 = 325DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 18.5N LONM24 = 93.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Winds increased to 25 knots.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ok I was slightly wrong earlier on this system. But any ways lets see if we can get christ to form!!!

[Eyewall]

I have a feeling this is gonna be a large storm and i think it may become a hurricane

[Stratosphere747]

I have a feeling this is gonna be a large storm and i think it may become a hurricane

Might want to give some reasoning before making a blanket statement like this...

[HURAKAN]

I have a feeling this is gonna be a large storm and i think it may become a hurricane

We only have a disturbance which future is still not completely understood. So, as always in the tropics, it's time to wait and see how the disturbance evolves. It's not the time to make statements or give development or strenghtening percentages.

[Ivan14]

Matt do you mean Chris?

[HURAKAN]

Matt do you mean Chris?

I think so!!!

[KatDaddy]

Your right on HURAKAN. Its a long way from being any real tropical threat at this point. Persistence will be the key.