spin around 33W and 8N

boca · #1 Postby **boca** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 7:31 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Looks like thunderstorm cluster around the center with a definite spin.

perk · #2 Postby **perk** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 7:41 am

Boca you're right. Lets see if it can gain some lattitude over the next day or so.

HurricaneHunter914 · #3 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 7:42 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

The GFS model forecasted some low pressure systems forming in that area. This might be our first CV storm.

boca · #4 Postby **boca** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 7:47 am

HurricaneHunter914 we have to see if this system down there can stick around. Remember 2 days ago that blob on the African coast that everyone was amazed at including myself,it went to 35W and went poof. I think this one has a shot since its already at 33W and surface temps are warm enough.

perk · #5 Postby **perk** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 7:49 am

I checked the wv loop and there is some dry air ahead of it, but it has it's own moisture around it to work with for now.

HurricaneHunter914 · #6 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 7:58 am

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Shear will be VERY, VERY favorable for development too.

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 8:07 am

Dust

boca,look at how much dust is in the tropical atlantic now.If this is going to develop,it has to battle witth the dust.

perk · #8 Postby **perk** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 8:11 am

I noticed that this wave was not mentioned in the 2:05am discussion, curios to see if it will be mentioned in the 8:05am discussion. It surely is a more impressive feature than anything discussed in the 2:05am (IMHO).

boca · #9 Postby **boca** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 8:15 am

Wow look at that dust no wonder nothing can get going out there.

HurricaneMaster_PR · #10 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 8:37 am

Anybody here has been able to see the 8:05am TWD?

mempho · #11 Postby **mempho** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 9:04 am

This could be the start of the CV.

cheezyWXguy · #12 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 9:07 am

cycloneye wrote:Dust

boca,look at how much dust is in the tropical atlantic now.If this is going to develop,it has to battle witth the dust.

Look at the key at the bottom...thats light to moderate at best..I think it has a chance to get my name(chris)

#13 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 9:18 am

Well here is a round up of what the models are doing with this area...

What are we seeing here? Eventhough there is a lot of saharan dust and dry air it's looking like there is some consistency within the models showing broad areas of vorticity in the 850mb levels. Also I noticed lower pressure in those areas too. I didn't pick out anything really closed but, there is currently and surface low associated with this wave but, as we have seen with the other waves that have looked really good is that the dry air in the mid levels caused by the Saharan Dust significantly decreased convection but, as this moves westward and gets closer to the islands is where it will move out of the thicker levels of dust.

GFS - Wants to develope and area of low pressure and take it into the Islands.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

CMC - Shows some pretty good vorticity but, takes northwestward eventually before it makes to to the islands
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

FSUMM5 - Showing a pretty broad area of Vorticity then moving into the Islands
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation

NOGAPS - Starts with a pretty broad are of vorticity but, then it's very small by the time it reaches the Islands.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

UKMET - Also showing a very broad area of vorticity moving into the islands.
06Z - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

00Z - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

#14 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 9:20 am

cheezywxman wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Dust

boca,look at how much dust is in the tropical atlantic now.If this is going to develop,it has to battle witth the dust.

Look at the key at the bottom...thats light to moderate at best..I think it has a chance to get my name(chris)

On the contrary in front of this area that looks to be a pretty healthy strong area of Saharan Dust. I don't see how you get moderate to light out of it.

Luis thanks for posting that, sometimes I forget to look there for the dust. I usually try to make it out on visible imagry but, it only comes out every 3 hours.

If you look at the mid level water vapor http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wvmid.html - you can see this dust very well there. But, it is in front of this wave and not behind it. I guess it would depend on if this wave is moving faster than the dust it would move into it but, if it is moving the same or slower it may have a small chance.

#15 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 9:32 am

HurricaneHunter914 · #16 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 9:39 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

Looks like we have 2 potential CV waves now. :eek:

ThunderMate · #17 Postby **ThunderMate** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 11:54 am

That is the best Quikscat i have seen all year!

#18 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 12:00 pm

it's embedded in the western edge of the monsoon trough, it better develop quick or it is a gonner. It looks to be headed into a death trap like every single wave this year has done before it.

#19 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 12:40 pm

If condiciones becomes more favorable things could get very interesting close to Africa.

#20 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 1:09 pm

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS ADJUSTED ALONG 31W/32W S OF 18N BASED ON SATELLITE
ANALYSIS AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASSAGE. A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 7N. THE WAVE/LOW IS MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED BETWEEN 33/35W AND 5/8N. SHIP OBS
THIS MORNING DEPICTED 20 TO 30 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST OF THE
WAVE.

Discussion 2:05 PM.

boca,good eye seeing this in the morning.

spin around 33W and 8N

spin around 33W and 8N

Who is online