Another forum member says JB thinks an El Nino is underway

[boca]

They were saying that 17 storms in the Atlantic is way too high because of this developing situation. I thought conditions were neutral, can someone shed some light on the potential EL Nino or not.

[NDG]

Good old JB creating controversy once again.
If you look at last year's same time SST anomaly in the equatorial Pacific area:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.7.19.2005.gif
They almost seemed to be warmer than what they are now:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.7.18.2006.gif
And last year was a neutral year.

[gatorcane]

Based on Mike Watkins discussions tonight El Nino is not likely to happen since we would have started seeing something already

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Big hurricanes are developing over the eastern pacific. In they don't normally happen with out a el nino.

[deltadog03]

the ukmet office was the first to point this out. I think an el nino is starting somewhat.

[NDG]

From the Australian Gov't:

CURRENT STATUS as at 12th July 2006
Next update expected by 26th July 2006 (two weeks after this update).

| Summary | In Brief | Details |

Summary: A persistence of neutral ENSO conditions

The overall ENSO status remains neutral. Generally weak trends have been observed in the main Pacific climate indicators during the past few weeks, and the potential for an El Niño event to develop this year is still relatively low.

The main concern remains the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which is hovering around the −10 mark, indicating a general weakness in the Pacific Walker Circulation. There has also been some weakening in the Trade Winds in the last week, so this situation will be monitored closely for any sustained trends. However, ocean temperatures are only marginally above average, both on and below the surface, so there is only a slight risk that the Pacific will warm to levels high enough for an El Niño event to develop.

Most of the ENSO prediction models surveyed at the end of June showed a continuation of neutral conditions, although on the warm side of normal. Some updated model runs since then, indicate an increased likelihood of the Pacific warming to El Niño levels. However, a sustained warming beginning in July or August would be unusual, given that ENSO events typically begin to evolve between March and June.

[benny]

Links? Any excerpts?

[NDG]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[HurricaneBill]

Big hurricanes are developing over the eastern pacific. In they don't normally happen with out a el nino.

What?! Major hurricanes happen practically EVERY year in the EPAC.

2005 had 2 majors. (Jova and Kenneth)

2004 had 3 majors. (Darby, Howard, and Javier)

Yes, 2004 had an El Nino, but that was toward the end of the season and the EPAC wasn't really affected.

[Cyclenall]

In my opinion, I doubt we will see a El Nino in the next 6 months. Next year, I don't know. Mike Watkins discussed some reasons for this and talked about it.

The Epac is very busy, but how do we know this has to do with a El Nino event? That isn't enough to call a El Nino.

http://www.hurricanetrack.com

Mark talks about a possible El Nino in his discussion today.

[Jim Hughes]

Good old JB creating controversy once again.
If you look at last year's same time SST anomaly in the equatorial Pacific area:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.7.19.2005.gif
They almost seemed to be warmer than what they are now:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.7.18.2006.gif
And last year was a neutral year.

Big difference. Last year the pendulum was swinging the exact opposite. Away from a warm trend and towards a cool trend. This past winter we had a weak La Nina.