SE Florida/Bahamas Development?

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SouthFloridawx
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SE Florida/Bahamas Development?

#1 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:12 pm

The GFS/Nam/CMC/ is hinting at some vorticity off the coast of Florida within the next 72 Hours. In fact the NAM develops a closed low and moves out into the open Atlantic.

00Z NAM
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

18Z GFS 850mb Vorticity
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

12Z CMC 850mb Vorticity
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Let's see what happens in the 00Z model runs.

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#2 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:14 pm

Yep good catch - I was looking out there tonight....looks like it is getting somewhat interesting although now it is just the northern edge of a tropical wave interacting with a ULL off Cape Canaveral...

A strong trough for this time of year will dig down into the EC of the US this weekened and turn whatever is there NE out to sea - at least it looks like that now
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#3 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:18 pm

Boca pointed this out to me tonight on the phone.

000
FXUS62 KKEY 210217
AFDKEY

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1015 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS:
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS NOW PROBABLY JUST WEST OF THE KEYS...AS
SUGGESTED BY LOCAL WINDS WHICH ARE BLOWING FROM THE ESE TO SE AROUND
10 KT. THE KEY WEST EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR IN
PLACE OVER THE KEYS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 2.09 INCHES. THE
WIND PROFILE AT OBSERVATION TIME SHOWED LIGHT WINDS FROM THE S TO SW
JUST ABOVE THE GROUND...TURNING TO LIGHT NE AT 14 THSD FT AND ABOVE.
CONVECTION WANED LATED THIS AFTERNOON OVER KEYS ISLAND LOCATIONS BUT
HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER GULF WATERS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
LOWER KEYS. MEANWHILE...STRONG AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FORMED
OVER CUBA DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WERE ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT BLEW NORTH FROM OTHER CARIBBEAN CONVECTION. SINCE
SUNSET...A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED NORTH OVER THE STRAITS
AND AT THIS TIME IS SHOWING SOME 30 KT GUSTS AS IT MOVES INTO WATERS
20 NM SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. THE OUTFLOW CURRENTLY IS
JUST WIND...NO SHOWERS ON IT...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO
FOLLOW A WAYS BEHIND THE OUTFLOW.

FORECAST:
NO UPDATE TO PUBLIC ZONES IS PLANNED. THE CUBAN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE KEYS FROM THE SOUTH MAY EVENTUALLY SPARK ADDITIONAL
NEW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE KEYS TONIGHT.
ALSO...THE GFS MODEL INDICATES FORMATION OF A MID LEVEL (500 MB) LOW
CENTER OVERNIGHT NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
LOBE SWINGING SE OVER THE KEYS. THE GFS INDICATES A REGION OF UVV
FIELDS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY OVER THE
KEYS.
&&
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#4 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:20 pm

interesting......looks like an area to watch.
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#5 Postby abryant.ma » Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:28 pm

hmmm. definately an area to keep an eye on.
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#6 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:28 pm

Christ Chirist wahooo!!!
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#7 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:29 pm

Let's just keep an eye on it and see what happens tomorrow

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#8 Postby boca » Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:30 pm

According to Melbourne NWS they have the trough moving into the EGOM.

FRI-SUN...
INVERTED H85-H50 TROF AXIS OVER THE FL PENINSULA WILL PUSH INTO THE
ERN GOMEX THRU 00Z SAT...ALLOWING THE LCL STEERING FLOW TO SHIFT
FROM S TO SW. DLM MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA ON FRI...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
A WET WX SCENARIO THIS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

MEANWHILE...AN H85-H50 SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES WILL DIG ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
80-90KT H25 JET MAX. THIS TROF WILL GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A BROADER
H85-H50 TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE COMBINED TROF
DIGGING ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION ON FRI. AS IT DOES...IT WILL
PASS OVER A BROAD/WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
EVENTUALLY INDUCING A NEW SFC LOW OVER THE APPALACHIAN REGION AROUND
12Z SAT.

http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/global/ ... llite.html
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#9 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:47 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Christ Chirist wahooo!!!



Okay if you say so.
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#10 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:50 pm

First, this needs a LLC. Second, this needs some organization. And third, this needs TD force winds. So far this is far away from any possible development.
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#11 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:51 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:First, this needs a LLC. Second, this needs some organization. And third, this needs TD force winds. So far this is far away from any possible development.

I was talking about the models hinting at development... never said any one of those things and I never said it was going to.
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#12 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:51 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Christ Chirist wahooo!!!


OK then... :roll:
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#13 Postby boca » Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:57 pm

If something going to develop let it develop away from our coastline and be a fish.
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#14 Postby Downdraft » Fri Jul 21, 2006 12:19 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Christ Chirist wahooo!!!


Is that necessary? Some people in here find it offensive.
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#15 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Jul 21, 2006 1:31 am

Very interesting. I will need to watch this closely as I am currently on the east coast of Fl until Aug. 1st.
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#16 Postby mobilebay » Fri Jul 21, 2006 1:35 am

Downdraft wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Christ Chirist wahooo!!!


Is that necessary? Some people in here find it offensive.

I think what Matt was trying to say was Chris, the name of the next storm. I noticed he mispelled it last night.
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Rainband

#17 Postby Rainband » Fri Jul 21, 2006 2:01 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Very interesting. I will need to watch this closely as I am currently on the east coast of Fl until Aug. 1st.
Welcome to Florida :D
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#18 Postby krisj » Fri Jul 21, 2006 6:02 am

This is not good. We are leaving out on a cruise to the Bahamas on Sat. We can't have anything going on there now!
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caneman

#19 Postby caneman » Fri Jul 21, 2006 6:05 am

krisj wrote:This is not good. We are leaving out on a cruise to the Bahamas on Sat. We can't have anything going on there now!


there isn't anything going on there now. Tomorrow you should be fine
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#20 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri Jul 21, 2006 6:08 am

Actually a weak trough is there right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg
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