Flare up at remmanants of TD#2

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 12, 2003 6:45 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

The strong wave remmanants of TD#2 has flared up this morning but no well defined low level circulation is there.But shear is in the vicinity of the wave and no regeneration is expected because of that but if this wave continues alive as it enters the caribbean when it gets to the western caribbean it well may regenerate so keep an eye on it as I am doing.

#2 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Jun 12, 2003 7:46 am

If there is any kind of circulation left in the remnants of TD #2 it is around 12N, 51W ahead of the convection. This will present another roadblock in any attempts to regenerate ATT. With the N edges still being eroded by shear and very strong shear immediately to the West there appears to be no chance at regeneration ATT. With strong shear all across the Caribbean I would say chances are very slim that we will see anything other than heavy rain and gusty winds as the wave passes the Southern islands and skirts the N coast of S America.

Stormsfury · #3 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Jun 12, 2003 8:41 am

Another bit of climatology information ... no tropical storm development has occurred in the Eastern Caribbean in June ... The furthest east where a system became a tropical storm was 16ºN, 78.0ºW and that occurred 6-24-1907...

JCT777 · #4 Postby **JCT777** » Thu Jun 12, 2003 9:06 am

Keep watching it Luis, because you never know.

Anonymous · #5 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Jun 12, 2003 10:35 am

I'm ruling out redevelopment. The entire Caribbean Sea (including the western Carib) is dominated by strong 40 to 50 knot westerly shear due to both the TUTT and the anticyclone over Mexico. There won't be any drastic changes in these shear values over the next several days either. If we do, by chance, see any tropical formation from the tropical wave (ex-TD2), it will be in the eastern Pacific.

PTrackerLA · #6 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Thu Jun 12, 2003 12:46 pm

I don't think redevelopment will occur, conditions are far too hostile out there.

ColdFront77 · #7 Postby **ColdFront77** » Thu Jun 12, 2003 1:33 pm

There are areas to the west of this strong tropical wave that is less hostile and even the area around there could decrease. It has happened before.

I have said it before and we have said a lot of things more than once, that is what brings up discussion, the new and the old....

If wind shear can increase, it can decrease... which can lead to surface low pressure systems to develop and/or redevelop.

Flare up at remmanants of TD#2

Flare up at remmanants of TD#2

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