Atlantic Basin Images From the Past

[gatorcane]

Here is the current visible of the central Atlantic with partly cloudy skies everywhere and no major systems for for thousands of miles - is it really almost August???

Remember this image come September or maybe even as early as August:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/vis-l.jpg

Western Atlantic visible is also nearly as quiet. You can sail a boat from Texas to the Leeward islands and beyond for thousands of miles and not hit ANY rain or storms:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/vis-l.jpg

Who here thinks this is just the calm before the storm (I'll raise may hand)???

[Stormcenter]

Here is the current visible of the central Atlantic with partly cloudy skies everywhere and no major systems for for thousands of miles - is it really almost August???

Remember this image come September or maybe even as early as August:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/vis-l.jpg

Western Atlantic visible is also nearly as quiet. You can sail a boat from Texas to the Leeward islands and beyond for thousands of miles and not hit ANY rain or storms:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/vis-l.jpg

Who here thinks this is just the calm before the storm (I'll raise may hand)???

Who knows it may stay that way for a good while. I guess that's wishful thinking.

[gatorcane]

I doubt it, all conditions are in place for an active season. Here are some:

- warm SSTs although not as warm as last year
- neutral or even La Nina conditions (el nino is not likely)
- slow early start sometimes means active finish
- ITCZ is behaving as expected, some strong waves have emerged in July

Also, since the active year started in 1995 we have avg about 15 named storms and right now we only have 2....the last slow year was 1994 with only 7 named storms...

[gatorcane]

Does anybody care to post a few images showing the Atlantic just the opposite of now in August/September - very active?

There is nothing going on right now but at least we can see what COULD be coming in the next couple of months.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Seems like we'll be seeing a close repeat of 2004, but without Florida getting slammed by four hurricanes. Even a Cat-1 Hurricane could cause my house to lose a roof.

[Frank2]

...slow early start sometimes means active finish

But, slow starts also can mean slow seasons - there's enough trouble in the world right now, so, a slow season, at least so far, is a real blessing at this time...

Right now, the level of activity is where it should be for an "average" season (2-0-0) - as that Chef on Food Network says, "I'm likin' it".

Of course it's too early to tell, and, as others said, we can only look at 2004 to see that a very slow and late start, does not mean that the season will stay that way, but, we'll see, and, of course, for each week that passes without any significant development, we're that much the better (though I know some here would disagree).

Frank

[gatorcane]

Courtesy of NHC:

Subject: G8) Does an active June and July mean the rest of the season will be busy too?
Contributed by Stan Goldenberg


Yes and No. The vast majority of Atlantic activity takes place during August-September-October, the climatological peak months of the hurricane season. The overall number of named storms (hurricanes) occurring in June and July (JJ) correlates at an insignificant r = +0.13 (+0.02) versus the whole season activity. In fact, there is a slight negative relationship between early season storms (hurricanes) versus late season - August through November - r = -0.28 (-0.35). Thus, the overall early season activity, be it very active or quite calm, has little bearing on the season as a whole. These correlations are based on the years 1944-1994.

However, as shown in (Goldenberg 2000), if one looks only at the June-July Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes occurring south of 22°N and east of 77°W (the eastern portion of the Main Development Region [MDR] for Atlantic hurricanes), there is a strong association with activity for the remainder of the year. According to the data from 1944-1999, total overall Atlantic activity for years that had a tropical storm or hurricane form in this region during JJ have been at least average and often times above average. So it could be said that a JJ storm in this region is pretty much a "sufficient" (though not "necessary") condition for a year to produce at least average activity. (I.e., Not all years with average to above-average total overall activity have had a JJ storm in that region, but almost all years with that type of JJ storm produce average to above-average activity.) The formation of a storm in this region during June-July is taken into account when the August updates for the Bill Gray and NOAA seasonal forecasts are issued.

Source:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G8.html

[Frank2]

Since there hasn't been any development this season south of 22N, or east of 77W, that's something to consider...

Frank

[gatorcane]

Since there hasn't been any development this season south of 22N, or east of 77W, that's something to consider...

Frank

so that would mean possibly below normal activity for the CV season later in this region?

[Eyewall]

ftp://eclipse.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/isccp/b ... -12-IR.jpg

last year at this time.. quite a difference

[gatorcane]

thanks for this image, anybody have any more images showing alot of activity brewing in the Atlantic in Aug-Oct?

How about any images for the CV storm train?

[HomesteadHoney]

Remember that Hurricane AAAAndrew hit on August 24. 2 or 3 intense, land-falling hurricanes hitting the CONUS would make for a memorable season.

[Frank2]

Re: eyewall's post

ftp://eclipse.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/isccp/b1/.D2790P/images/2005/201/Img-2005-07-20-09-GOE-12-IR.jpg

last year at this time.. quite a difference

Yes, that really brings it home, and, while some here might be correct in making the connection between 2004 and this year's possible August - October totals, the reality is that this season, so far, is much, much quieter than last year at this time - even moreso than the NHC or CSU had forecast...

Frank

[Frank2]

Re: eyewall's post

Since there hasn't been any development this season south of 22N, or east of 77W, that's something to consider...

Frank


so that would mean possibly below normal activity for the CV season later in this region?

According to Stan Goldenberg of the NHC, there might be a connection...

Frank

[gatorcane]

that certainly would be great news.....if the CV season was once again not active...

[Eyewall]

ftp://eclipse.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/isccp/b ... -12-IR.jpg

image from 2004
it is quite similar
we see the trough along the east coast that has been there much of this season
and there is even an ULL north of PR like today...
also large waves moving off Africa

all of these are close to what we have seen this year

I looked into it and found that the Epac had 4 named storms before august
they are on their 4th now

[gatorcane]

ftp://eclipse.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/isccp/b1/.D2790P/images/2004/202/Img-2004-07-20-12-GOE-12-IR.jpg

image from 2004
it is quite similar
we see the trough along the east coast that has been there much of this season
and there is even an ULL north of PR like today...
also large waves moving off Africa

all of these are close to what we have seen this year

that's very interesting...I wonder what other years have looked like at this time.....anybody have some pics from previous years at this time (or as I said in an earlier post from Aug-October)???

[Eyewall]

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/rsad/gibbs/gibbs.html

You can find images from any date, on any year back to 1983..
this should help with the research

[mtm4319]

I just picked a random date: September 5, 2003.

ftp://eclipse.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/isccp/b ... -12-IR.jpg

On that day, you had Tropical Storm Henri about to make landfall on the western Florida coast, major Hurricane Fabian near landfall at Bermuda, and the developing system that would become Hurricane Isabel. Not much else besides that though.

[gatorcane]

Sept 4, 2004 - Frances is on Florida's doorstep and other other systems are brewing in the Atlantic:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/rsad/gibbs/ ... 12-vs.html