Tropical Storm Beryl
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- SouthFloridawx
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- abryant.ma
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is it me or does she looks really like big and ominous on the radar out of Upton, NY?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=OKX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=OKX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
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abryant.ma wrote:is it me or does she looks really like big and ominous on the radar out of Upton, NY?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=OKX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
I know what you mean...It just shows that there doesnt have to be massively deep convection to get pretty heavy pretty heavy rain...look at all the oranges and yellows...also I think I see an eyewall
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Yes, it does look ominou but I don't believe it's a hurricane. I've been a getting a few sprinkles and showers this morning here along Far Rockaway, Queens. I see some heavier showers or thunderstorms heading this directon from a feeder band.
Last edited by Thunder44 on Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- abryant.ma
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- wxman57
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I"m measuring a current heading of 025 degrees. If the heading doesn't change, 025 degrees puts Beryl into southern Rhode Island. But I do think it'll be gradually turning. NHC may have it too far east, though. It would have to average an 050 deg heading from the current position to hit the NHC 24 hour position, or an 059 deg heading from the 12-hr forecast position.
I'm not sure why the NHC is so insitent that it's going to make the turn. Their track near the right of all guidance. However, the CONU (consensus model) isn't far from the NHC track, and that model isn't too bad, generally. In any case, some of the squalls will be impacting southeast MA tonight. Could see a few pockets of 40-45 mph sustained wind there and higher gusts. Even eastern Long Island and southern Rhode Island may see a few outer squalls.
Here are the latest model plots:
I'm not sure why the NHC is so insitent that it's going to make the turn. Their track near the right of all guidance. However, the CONU (consensus model) isn't far from the NHC track, and that model isn't too bad, generally. In any case, some of the squalls will be impacting southeast MA tonight. Could see a few pockets of 40-45 mph sustained wind there and higher gusts. Even eastern Long Island and southern Rhode Island may see a few outer squalls.
Here are the latest model plots:
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fact789 wrote:looks like the south part is falling apart
Good observation. Watch where the convection concentrates today. Remember the old rule of thumb -- a storm will "follow the convection". That means look at what side of the storm has the strongest thunderstorms. It's an indication that upper winds are blowing in that direction, and the storm will possibly track in that direction. Not always, though.
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wxman57 wrote:fact789 wrote:looks like the south part is falling apart
Good observation. Watch where the convection concentrates today. Remember the old rule of thumb -- a storm will "follow the convection". That means look at what side of the storm has the strongest thunderstorms. It's an indication that upper winds are blowing in that direction, and the storm will possibly track in that direction. Not always, though.
As of the 11am advisory they have the storm moving at the NNE at 13 mph... I think this thing has no choice but to make landfall in western mass. I know they are expecting a turn to the NE but, I don't think it's turning fast enough.
I also noticed the erosion of convection on the southern side of the storm..
Usually in an extra-tropical storm the majority of the convection is on the north and northeast side correct?
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Looks like a Mass. Landfall is now obvious, but the question is: Will she make landfall as a Tropical or Extratropical system?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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