TS Beryl Recon Discussion Thread

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 192019
AF309 0302A BERYL HDOB 38 KNHC
2010 3546N 07357W 01525 0056 321 042 144 142 043 01624 0000000000
2010. 3547N 07356W 01522 0053 321 044 144 134 044 01618 0000000000
2011 3548N 07354W 01524 0051 322 045 142 142 045 01619 0000000000
2011. 3549N 07353W 01523 0049 324 043 146 146 044 01615 0000000000
2012 3550N 07352W 01524 0047 327 045 150 136 046 01614 0000000000
2012. 3551N 07350W 01523 0045 328 047 156 126 047 01610 0000000000
2013 3552N 07349W 01523 0043 330 048 158 118 049 01609 0000000000
2013. 3553N 07348W 01525 0040 331 051 154 116 053 01607 0000000000
2014 3554N 07346W 01523 0036 329 053 156 112 054 01601 0000000000
2014. 3555N 07345W 01524 0033 327 056 160 110 056 01600 0000000000
2015 3556N 07343W 01524 0031 322 056 166 110 057 01597 0000000000
2015. 3557N 07342W 01522 0026 319 055 170 110 057 01590 0000000000
2016 3558N 07340W 01523 0022 315 052 174 112 054 01588 0000000000
2016. 3559N 07338W 01524 0019 312 044 162 144 046 01585 0000000000
2017 3600N 07337W 01523 0014 313 040 158 158 045 01580 0000000000
2017. 3601N 07335W 01524 0011 319 032 162 162 035 01577 0000000000
2018 3602N 07334W 01523 0008 323 031 166 166 032 01573 0000000000
2018. 3603N 07332W 01523 0004 329 030 168 168 031 01570 0000000000
2019 3604N 07331W 01524 0001 330 027 168 168 028 01568 0000000000
2019. 3605N 07330W 01522 5001 328 025 168 168 026 01564 0000000000

57kt wind.

[bkdelong]

57knts at 35.57N, 73.42W

[Thunder44]

57kts still in the SW Quad.

[WindRunner]

And this map should update each time I post a new map in the main thread . . . at this point, they should be moving through the center as we speak.

[JonathanBelles]

57kts still in the SW Quad.

thats stil 45 mph with the .8 conversion

[StormsAhead]

57knts at 35.57N, 73.42W

Those are degrees and minutes, so it would be near 36.0N 73.7W

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 192029
AF309 0302A BERYL HDOB 39 KNHC
2020 3606N 07328W 01525 5003 323 022 174 174 022 01565 0000000000
2020. 3607N 07327W 01523 5005 318 020 176 174 022 01561 0000000000
2021 3608N 07325W 01523 5006 321 017 180 160 018 01559 0000000000
2021. 3609N 07324W 01524 5008 327 014 186 158 015 01558 0000000000
2022 3611N 07323W 01523 5009 324 012 190 158 013 01557 0000000000
2022. 3612N 07321W 01521 5010 313 006 188 160 009 01553 0000000000
2023 3613N 07320W 01525 5011 294 003 188 162 005 01557 0000000000
2023. 3614N 07318W 01524 5011 201 006 186 166 008 01556 0000000000
2024 3615N 07317W 01523 5010 201 010 186 152 011 01556 0000000000
2024. 3616N 07315W 01521 5011 193 009 188 152 010 01553 0000000000
2025 3618N 07314W 01525 5011 174 010 188 156 010 01557 0000000000
2025. 3619N 07312W 01522 5010 156 015 192 158 017 01554 0000000000
2026 3620N 07311W 01524 5010 155 019 184 166 019 01557 0000000000
2026. 3621N 07309W 01523 5007 146 021 180 168 022 01558 0000000000
2027 3622N 07308W 01523 5006 145 026 180 168 027 01560 0000000000
2027. 3623N 07306W 01524 5003 142 029 176 176 030 01563 0000000000
2028 3625N 07305W 01524 5001 142 032 174 164 033 01566 0000000000
2028. 3626N 07304W 01521 0002 141 033 176 164 033 01566 0000000000
2029 3627N 07302W 01525 0004 138 036 172 170 038 01572 0000000000
2029. 3628N 07301W 01522 0006 138 041 170 170 042 01571 0000000000


They just crossed the center.Fact,look at the winds line that is the third from right to left,how they die down and pick up as plane moves thru.Now the vortex message will come.u

[Derek Ortt]

its 45KT using a .8 conversion

plus, we have surface data indictaing a 50KT storm

[cheezyWXguy]

thats 46 knots, not mph...i just wrote it out

[JonathanBelles]

SXXX50 KNHC 192029
AF309 0302A BERYL HDOB 39 KNHC
2020 3606N 07328W 01525 5003 323 022 174 174 022 01565 0000000000
2020. 3607N 07327W 01523 5005 318 020 176 174 022 01561 0000000000
2021 3608N 07325W 01523 5006 321 017 180 160 018 01559 0000000000
2021. 3609N 07324W 01524 5008 327 014 186 158 015 01558 0000000000
2022 3611N 07323W 01523 5009 324 012 190 158 013 01557 0000000000
2022. 3612N 07321W 01521 5010 313 006 188 160 009 01553 0000000000
2023 3613N 07320W 01525 5011 294 003 188 162 005 01557 0000000000
2023. 3614N 07318W 01524 5011 201 006 186 166 008 01556 0000000000
2024 3615N 07317W 01523 5010 201 010 186 152 011 01556 0000000000
2024. 3616N 07315W 01521 5011 193 009 188 152 010 01553 0000000000
2025 3618N 07314W 01525 5011 174 010 188 156 010 01557 0000000000
2025. 3619N 07312W 01522 5010 156 015 192 158 017 01554 0000000000
2026 3620N 07311W 01524 5010 155 019 184 166 019 01557 0000000000
2026. 3621N 07309W 01523 5007 146 021 180 168 022 01558 0000000000
2027 3622N 07308W 01523 5006 145 026 180 168 027 01560 0000000000
2027. 3623N 07306W 01524 5003 142 029 176 176 030 01563 0000000000
2028 3625N 07305W 01524 5001 142 032 174 164 033 01566 0000000000
2028. 3626N 07304W 01521 0002 141 033 176 164 033 01566 0000000000
2029 3627N 07302W 01525 0004 138 036 172 170 038 01572 0000000000
2029. 3628N 07301W 01522 0006 138 041 170 170 042 01571 0000000000


They just crossed the center.Fact,look at the winds line that is the third from right to left,how they die down and pick up as plane moves thru.Now the vortex message will come.u

thanks luis

[WindRunner]

URNT12 KNHC 192032
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/20:22:50Z
B. 36 deg 13 min N
073 deg 19 min W
C. 850 mb 1442 m
D. 55 kt
E. 235 deg 028 nm
F. 318 deg 057 kt
G. 234 deg 024 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. 15 C/ 1522 m
J. 20 C/ 1520 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 0302A BERYL OB 15
MAX FL WIND 57 KT SW QUAD 20:15:10 Z
SFC CNTR WITHIN 5NM OF FL CNTR

Down to 1002mb, and visual estimate is up, for what it's worth.

[StormsAhead]

57 knots in the NE quadrant as well

[curtadams]

57kts still in the SW Quad.

thats stil 45 mph with the .8 conversion

Yes, but remember .8 is an average conversion. The actual conversion for a given storm at a given time can be substantially higher or lower (as much as .15, IIRC). Part of the point of a eyewall dropsonde is to better estimate the actual conversion. The dropsonde indicated 49/56 = .875 is probably a better conversion for Beryl at the moment. Not much of a surprise, as strengthening storms often have higher conversions.

[SouthFloridawx]

Someone posted the most recent dropsonde right?

[cycloneye]

A new vortex message will be up in minutes as the plane is crossing the center.

[WindRunner]

2 new drops and a vortex are posted. Drop in the center measured 1002mb in 9mph of wind, so a 1001mb reading might be more accurate, but since they didn't go with it at 5pm (when we had a 1002mb reading with 14mph wind), I doubt they would use it at 8pm.

[WindRunner]

I'm leaving shortly, so if anyone can take over posting of data, I'm sure everyone on the board would appreciate it.

If anyone wants to carry on with the Google Earth maps, open this file (click on it) and plot away!

[cycloneye]

I am posting the raw data.

[cycloneye]

They are going to center again this time from the NW.

[cycloneye]

277
URNT12 KNHC 192358
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/23:49:30Z
B. 36 deg 38 min N
073 deg 07 min W
C. 850 mb 1435 m
D. 50 kt
E. 46 deg 038 nm
F. 132 deg 049 kt
G. 49 deg 071 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. 15 C/ 1522 m
J. 18 C/ 1529 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 0302A BERYL OB 25
MAX FL WIND 57 KT SW QUAD 20:15:10 Z
SFC CNTR WITHIN 5NM OF FL CNTR




No big news to report from message as nothing new is there from the last message.