GOM system is getting the look

caneman · #1 Postby **caneman** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:12 pm

Albeit small, it has been holding together since it rolled off the N.GOm. Looks like it is starting to get the classic S look on Water Vapor. I believe it is pulling in moisture from across the state. Lets get some thoughts rolling on this.

HurricaneHunter914 · #2 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:14 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

If this GOM wace does become a TD I sugest we should watch out for some Rapid Intensification because conditions are favorable and the water is HOT!!

Extremeweatherguy · #3 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:16 pm

I wonder where it would head? I am planning on driving from here (Houston) to the east coast of Fl over the next two days. I wonder if this will interfere.

White Cap · #4 Postby **White Cap** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:21 pm

I wonder if it will latch onto the "cold" front which is supposed to sweep out into the GOM?

HouTXmetro · #5 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:25 pm

caneman wrote:Albeit small, it has been holding together since it rolled off the N.GOm. Looks like it is starting to get the classic S look on Water Vapor. I believe it is pulling in moisture from across the state. Lets get some thoughts rolling on this.

What is the classic S look?

#6 Postby **deltadog03** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:32 pm

that would more than likely head towards texas!

wxwatcher91 · #7 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:34 pm

Im thinking it has more of the classic W look... maybe the classic Q look :wink:

the classic S look is exactly what it is... an S showing up on the imagery (e.i. the hurricane symbol that is used with the bands going out in different directions like an S). basically it is showing convergence on the spot and that is where development is possible

HouTXmetro · #8 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:37 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:Im thinking it has more of the classic W look... maybe the classic Q look

the classic S look is exactly what it is... an S showing up on the imagery (e.i. the hurricane symbol that is used with the bands going out in different directions like an S). basically it is showing convergence on the spot and that is where development is possible

Thanks, I don't quite see the S look on imagery.

#9 Postby **fwbbreeze** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:37 pm

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

Closest buoy/station I could find to the convection. Station is reporting a pressure fall, however this appears to be a daily occurance. Need to watch and see if it continues at such a rapid decline

fwbbreeze

hicksta · #10 Postby **hicksta** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:38 pm

If you wana know where she is heading look at the lower mb wind levels.

#11 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:38 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:
wxwatcher91 wrote:Im thinking it has more of the classic W look... maybe the classic Q look

the classic S look is exactly what it is... an S showing up on the imagery (e.i. the hurricane symbol that is used with the bands going out in different directions like an S). basically it is showing convergence on the spot and that is where development is possible

Thanks, I don't quite see the S look on imagery.

There is just a hint of a little twist around the area of thunderstorms due south of the mouth of MS.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

HouTXmetro · #12 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:38 pm

deltadog03 wrote:that would more than likely head towards texas!

IT BETTER NOT!!!! I will be in Dallas this weekend and will be D@mned to miss this if it headed toward Houston.

hicksta · #13 Postby **hicksta** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:39 pm

None of the models are picking up on it as of now. But shear is low and the water is hot. Might need to watch this.

#14 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:45 pm

hicksta wrote:None of the models are picking up on it as of now. But shear is low and the water is hot. Might need to watch this.

They don't always do just like sometimes they predict something will develop and it doesn't.

HouTXmetro · #15 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:50 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
hicksta wrote:None of the models are picking up on it as of now. But shear is low and the water is hot. Might need to watch this.

They don't always do just like sometimes they predict something will develop and it doesn't.

good point, but I will wait to see if convection can persist overnight before I get excited. Too many systems have teased me already this year.

hicksta · #16 Postby **hicksta** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:51 pm

Get excited about a storm in the gulf................ :roll:

HouTXmetro wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:
hicksta wrote:None of the models are picking up on it as of now. But shear is low and the water is hot. Might need to watch this.

They don't always do just like sometimes they predict something will develop and it doesn't.

good point, but I will wait to see if convection can persist overnight before I get excited. Too many systems have teased me already this year.

White Cap · #17 Postby **White Cap** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:52 pm

Odd to see a cool front make it all the way into the GOM this time of year. This is usually a September pattern, when storms form in the GOM off of a stalled front. It will be interesting to see if this scenario happens with this one.

southerngale · #18 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:54 pm

deltadog03 wrote:that would more than likely head towards texas!

Just curious....what is the reasoning behind this?

HouTXmetro · #19 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:55 pm

White Cap wrote:Odd to see a cool front make it all the way into the GOM this time of year. This is usually a September pattern, when storms form in the GOM off of a stalled front. It will be interesting to see if this scenario happens with this one.

Well this is the same pattern from 2004. If that is the case look out Florida.

#20 Postby **deltadog03** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 3:03 pm

southerngale wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:that would more than likely head towards texas!

Just curious....what is the reasoning behind this?

Well, as much as the nam/wrf likes to overdue systems, they have the right idea on path wise. There is gonna be another trof split it looks like coming down from the ohio valley this weekend. Also, if this stays weaker then the low level flow would push this towards our area. I will try and post some maps of this in a bit.

GOM system is getting the look

GOM system is getting the look

Re: GOM system is getting the look

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