Thunder44 wrote:If there no watches or warnings in effect, how come we are still getting intermediate advisories?
I asked the same thing to myself!!!
Beryl=Local and NHC Advisories
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cycloneye
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Good question.Maybe they will make a correction about that later.
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cycloneye
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HURAKAN wrote:Thunder44 wrote:If there no watches or warnings in effect, how come we are still getting intermediate advisories?
I asked the same thing to myself!!!
WTNT32 KNHC 191502
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006
CORRECTED MESSAGE TO REMOVE MENTION OF NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
...BERYL GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED...
They corrected it now.
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cheezyWXguy
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cycloneye
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cheezywxman wrote:so the next advisory is at 5pm instead of 2?
Yes at 5 PM EDT the next Advisory.
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cycloneye
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Advisory should be up at any moment.
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HurricaneHunter914
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They'l probably continue the watches and/or warnings.
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WindRunner
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Andrew92
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...Beryl getting stronger as it moves northward and parallels the
East Coast of the United States...
...Tropical storm watch issued for southeastern Massachusetts...
at 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...a tropical storm watch has been issued for
southeastern Massachusetts from Plymouth southward and westward to
Woods Hole...including Cape Cod...Nantucket Island and Martha's
Vineyard.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 36.3 north...longitude 73.5 west or about 135
miles...220 km...northeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina and about
390 miles...630 km...south-southwest of Nantucket Massachusetts.
Beryl is moving toward the north near 8 mph...13 km/hr. This general
motion is forecast to continue tonight... with a gradual turn
toward the north-northeast expected on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 12 to
24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 100 miles...160 km
...Mainly northeast through southeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb...29.59 inches.
Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...36.3 N...73.5 W. Movement
toward...north near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...60 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1002 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
East Coast of the United States...
...Tropical storm watch issued for southeastern Massachusetts...
at 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...a tropical storm watch has been issued for
southeastern Massachusetts from Plymouth southward and westward to
Woods Hole...including Cape Cod...Nantucket Island and Martha's
Vineyard.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 36.3 north...longitude 73.5 west or about 135
miles...220 km...northeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina and about
390 miles...630 km...south-southwest of Nantucket Massachusetts.
Beryl is moving toward the north near 8 mph...13 km/hr. This general
motion is forecast to continue tonight... with a gradual turn
toward the north-northeast expected on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 12 to
24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 100 miles...160 km
...Mainly northeast through southeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb...29.59 inches.
Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...36.3 N...73.5 W. Movement
toward...north near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...60 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1002 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Brent
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TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
500 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006
LATEST RECON PASS AROUND 2030Z INDICATED A 57 KT 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002
MB. ALSO...A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT REPORTED A
SURFACE WIND OF 49 KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE IMPROVING
STRUCTURE IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 50 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/07 KT. RADAR AND SATELLITE POSITION
ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN COMING IN 12-18 NMI WEST AND NORTHWEST OF RECON
POSITIONS...INDICATING SOME NORTHWESTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX
COLUMN. BUT OVERALL...BERYL HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE
NORTH FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS BERYL MOVES NORTHWARD
THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS INFLUENCED MAINLY
BY DEEP SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR-DERIVED
WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS. MOST OF THE MODELS TAKE A WEAK AND VERTICALLY
SHALLOW BERYL INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST ANYWHERE FROM NEW
JERSEY EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE
CANADIAN MODEL AND ESPECIALLY THE UKMET MODEL. HOWEVER... ALL OF
THE MODELS KEEP THE 500 MB CIRCULATION CENTER WELL OFFSHORE LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. MY FEELING IS THAT BERYL
WILL REMAIN A MORE VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM AND...THEREFORE... BE
STEERED MORE NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TWO FORECAST TRACKS AND THE UKMET AND CANADIAN MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUNA MODEL. SHOULD BERYL
MOVE TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... IT IS LIKELY TO
DO SO AS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM.
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND AROUND THE
CIRCULATION AND SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE CENTER REMAINS
OVER WARM WATER. BY 24-36 HOURS...BERYL WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C
SSTS RESULTING IN A WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE STORM TO THE WARM GULFSTREAM AND THE EXPECTED
CONTINUED INFLUX OF WARM UNSTABLE AIR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED...WHICH
SHOULD ACT TO BOTH KEEP THE INTENSITY HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND
MAINTAIN A DEEP VERTICAL STRUCTURE THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH.
DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED CLOSE APPROACH OF BERYL TO EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/2100Z 36.3N 73.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 37.4N 73.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 38.7N 72.6W 55 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 40.3N 70.4W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 21/1800Z 42.1N 67.1W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 22/1800Z 45.4N 59.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 23/1800Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
500 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006
LATEST RECON PASS AROUND 2030Z INDICATED A 57 KT 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002
MB. ALSO...A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT REPORTED A
SURFACE WIND OF 49 KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE IMPROVING
STRUCTURE IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 50 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/07 KT. RADAR AND SATELLITE POSITION
ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN COMING IN 12-18 NMI WEST AND NORTHWEST OF RECON
POSITIONS...INDICATING SOME NORTHWESTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX
COLUMN. BUT OVERALL...BERYL HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE
NORTH FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS BERYL MOVES NORTHWARD
THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS INFLUENCED MAINLY
BY DEEP SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR-DERIVED
WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS. MOST OF THE MODELS TAKE A WEAK AND VERTICALLY
SHALLOW BERYL INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST ANYWHERE FROM NEW
JERSEY EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE
CANADIAN MODEL AND ESPECIALLY THE UKMET MODEL. HOWEVER... ALL OF
THE MODELS KEEP THE 500 MB CIRCULATION CENTER WELL OFFSHORE LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. MY FEELING IS THAT BERYL
WILL REMAIN A MORE VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM AND...THEREFORE... BE
STEERED MORE NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TWO FORECAST TRACKS AND THE UKMET AND CANADIAN MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUNA MODEL. SHOULD BERYL
MOVE TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... IT IS LIKELY TO
DO SO AS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM.
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND AROUND THE
CIRCULATION AND SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE CENTER REMAINS
OVER WARM WATER. BY 24-36 HOURS...BERYL WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C
SSTS RESULTING IN A WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE STORM TO THE WARM GULFSTREAM AND THE EXPECTED
CONTINUED INFLUX OF WARM UNSTABLE AIR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED...WHICH
SHOULD ACT TO BOTH KEEP THE INTENSITY HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND
MAINTAIN A DEEP VERTICAL STRUCTURE THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH.
DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED CLOSE APPROACH OF BERYL TO EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/2100Z 36.3N 73.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 37.4N 73.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 38.7N 72.6W 55 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 40.3N 70.4W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 21/1800Z 42.1N 67.1W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 22/1800Z 45.4N 59.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 23/1800Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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#neversummer
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Brent
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- Contact:
TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
2100 UTC WED JUL 19 2006
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH SOUTH AND WESTWARD TO
WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S
VINEYARD.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 73.5W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 85NE 85SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 73.5W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 73.5W
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 37.4N 73.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 38.7N 72.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 40.3N 70.4W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 75SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 42.1N 67.1W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 45.4N 59.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 40NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 73.5W
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
2100 UTC WED JUL 19 2006
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH SOUTH AND WESTWARD TO
WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S
VINEYARD.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 73.5W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 85NE 85SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 73.5W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 73.5W
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 37.4N 73.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 38.7N 72.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 40.3N 70.4W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 75SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 42.1N 67.1W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 45.4N 59.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 40NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 73.5W
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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#neversummer
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HurricaneHunter914
- Category 5
- Posts: 4439
- Age: 31
- Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
- Location: College Station, TX
That was some pretty rapid strengthening if you ask me. 45 to 60 mph is a big jump.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146191
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
760
WTNT42 KNHC 192048
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
500 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006
LATEST RECON PASS AROUND 2030Z INDICATED A 57 KT 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002
MB. ALSO...A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT REPORTED A
SURFACE WIND OF 49 KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE IMPROVING
STRUCTURE IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 50 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/07 KT. RADAR AND SATELLITE POSITION
ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN COMING IN 12-18 NMI WEST AND NORTHWEST OF RECON
POSITIONS...INDICATING SOME NORTHWESTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX
COLUMN. BUT OVERALL...BERYL HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE
NORTH FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS BERYL MOVES NORTHWARD
THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS INFLUENCED MAINLY
BY DEEP SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR-DERIVED
WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS. MOST OF THE MODELS TAKE A WEAK AND VERTICALLY
SHALLOW BERYL INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST ANYWHERE FROM NEW
JERSEY EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE
CANADIAN MODEL AND ESPECIALLY THE UKMET MODEL. HOWEVER... ALL OF
THE MODELS KEEP THE 500 MB CIRCULATION CENTER WELL OFFSHORE LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. MY FEELING IS THAT BERYL
WILL REMAIN A MORE VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM AND...THEREFORE... BE
STEERED MORE NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TWO FORECAST TRACKS AND THE UKMET AND CANADIAN MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUNA MODEL. SHOULD BERYL
MOVE TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... IT IS LIKELY TO
DO SO AS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM.
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND AROUND THE
CIRCULATION AND SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE CENTER REMAINS
OVER WARM WATER. BY 24-36 HOURS...BERYL WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C
SSTS RESULTING IN A WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE STORM TO THE WARM GULFSTREAM AND THE EXPECTED
CONTINUED INFLUX OF WARM UNSTABLE AIR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED...WHICH
SHOULD ACT TO BOTH KEEP THE INTENSITY HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND
MAINTAIN A DEEP VERTICAL STRUCTURE THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH.
DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED CLOSE APPROACH OF BERYL TO EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/2100Z 36.3N 73.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 37.4N 73.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 38.7N 72.6W 55 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 40.3N 70.4W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 21/1800Z 42.1N 67.1W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 22/1800Z 45.4N 59.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 23/1800Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
WTNT42 KNHC 192048
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
500 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006
LATEST RECON PASS AROUND 2030Z INDICATED A 57 KT 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002
MB. ALSO...A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT REPORTED A
SURFACE WIND OF 49 KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE IMPROVING
STRUCTURE IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 50 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/07 KT. RADAR AND SATELLITE POSITION
ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN COMING IN 12-18 NMI WEST AND NORTHWEST OF RECON
POSITIONS...INDICATING SOME NORTHWESTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX
COLUMN. BUT OVERALL...BERYL HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE
NORTH FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS BERYL MOVES NORTHWARD
THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS INFLUENCED MAINLY
BY DEEP SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR-DERIVED
WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS. MOST OF THE MODELS TAKE A WEAK AND VERTICALLY
SHALLOW BERYL INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST ANYWHERE FROM NEW
JERSEY EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE
CANADIAN MODEL AND ESPECIALLY THE UKMET MODEL. HOWEVER... ALL OF
THE MODELS KEEP THE 500 MB CIRCULATION CENTER WELL OFFSHORE LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. MY FEELING IS THAT BERYL
WILL REMAIN A MORE VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM AND...THEREFORE... BE
STEERED MORE NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TWO FORECAST TRACKS AND THE UKMET AND CANADIAN MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUNA MODEL. SHOULD BERYL
MOVE TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... IT IS LIKELY TO
DO SO AS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM.
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND AROUND THE
CIRCULATION AND SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE CENTER REMAINS
OVER WARM WATER. BY 24-36 HOURS...BERYL WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C
SSTS RESULTING IN A WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE STORM TO THE WARM GULFSTREAM AND THE EXPECTED
CONTINUED INFLUX OF WARM UNSTABLE AIR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED...WHICH
SHOULD ACT TO BOTH KEEP THE INTENSITY HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND
MAINTAIN A DEEP VERTICAL STRUCTURE THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH.
DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED CLOSE APPROACH OF BERYL TO EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/2100Z 36.3N 73.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 37.4N 73.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 38.7N 72.6W 55 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 40.3N 70.4W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 21/1800Z 42.1N 67.1W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 22/1800Z 45.4N 59.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 23/1800Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146191
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Hurricane Local Statement
TROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT
ANZ231>233-254-255-MAZ019-022>024-200130-
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
608 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006
...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WOODS HOLE
MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...NANTUCKET
...AND SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO BE IMPACTED BY TROPICAL STORM
BERYL LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
EXTENDS FROM PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
SOUTHEAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS
ACTIONS FOR BOATERS IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO
PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS.
TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS PROJECTED TO PASS APPROXIMATELY 40 MILES
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. ON THIS TRACK...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH COULD SPREAD ACROSS
THE WATCH AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WOULD BE OVER NANTUCKET...CLOSEST TO BERYL.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 390 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET. MOVEMENT WAS TO THE NORTH AT 8 MPH.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAD INCREASED TO 60 MPH. LOWEST
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE WAS 1002 MB...OR 29.59 INCHES.
THE NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ONE OF THE BIGGEST THREATS A TROPICAL STORM CAN POSE TO NEW ENGLAND
IS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT
UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT HAS PASSED. BOAT OWNERS AND MARINA
OPERATORS SHOULD BEGIN PREPARING FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. THE
PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS INCLUDE PREPARING GEAR TO BE ABLE TO TIE DOWN
VESSELS.
FOR A MORE COMPLETE LISTING OF TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREPAREDNESS
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON.
...WIND IMPACTS...
AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH...WHICH WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 6 AM
FRIDAY MORNING...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO BE PACKING SUSTAINED WINDS OF
60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WOULD
BEGIN ON NANTUCKET AT APPROXIMATELY 3 AM FRIDAY.
...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 3.9 FEET OCCURS AT NANTUCKET AT 918 PM
THURSDAY NIGHT AND 2.7 FEET AT 1013 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 FEET WHICH
WOULD CAUSE SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER TO OCCUR.
AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 10.0 FEET OCCURS AT PROVINCETOWN AT
826 PM THURSDAY NIGHT AND 8.4 FEET AT 912 AM FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 FEET
WHICH WOULD CAUSE SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER TO OCCUR.
THE SURGES THAT ACTUALLY OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL SPEED OF
THE STORM. THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE STORM...WHETHER IT ARRIVES AT
HIGH TIDE OR AT LOW TIDE...WILL ALSO AFFECT THESE VALUES.
...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
IN PLYMOUTH AND BRISTOL COUNTIES OF MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS RHODE
ISLAND...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN. AS A
RESULT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FLOODING.
ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE INITIATED IF
3 INCHES OF RAIN WERE TO OCCUR IN ONE HOUR OR 4.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND IN RHODE ISLAND...2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ONE HOUR OR 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS
WOULD INITIATE FLOODING.
AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS OVER CAPE
COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON BY 9 PM.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND
INLAND RESIDENTS WILL BE CONTAINED IN PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
/KBOXPNSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE STORM THREAT.
ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN SHORT TERM
FORECASTS /KBOXNOWBOX/...AND IN THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER
PRODUCTS.
$$
FIELD/NBELK
TROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT
ANZ231>233-254-255-MAZ019-022>024-200130-
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
608 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006
...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WOODS HOLE
MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...NANTUCKET
...AND SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO BE IMPACTED BY TROPICAL STORM
BERYL LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
EXTENDS FROM PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
SOUTHEAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS
ACTIONS FOR BOATERS IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO
PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS.
TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS PROJECTED TO PASS APPROXIMATELY 40 MILES
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. ON THIS TRACK...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH COULD SPREAD ACROSS
THE WATCH AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WOULD BE OVER NANTUCKET...CLOSEST TO BERYL.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 390 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET. MOVEMENT WAS TO THE NORTH AT 8 MPH.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAD INCREASED TO 60 MPH. LOWEST
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE WAS 1002 MB...OR 29.59 INCHES.
THE NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ONE OF THE BIGGEST THREATS A TROPICAL STORM CAN POSE TO NEW ENGLAND
IS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT
UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT HAS PASSED. BOAT OWNERS AND MARINA
OPERATORS SHOULD BEGIN PREPARING FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. THE
PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS INCLUDE PREPARING GEAR TO BE ABLE TO TIE DOWN
VESSELS.
FOR A MORE COMPLETE LISTING OF TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREPAREDNESS
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON.
...WIND IMPACTS...
AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH...WHICH WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 6 AM
FRIDAY MORNING...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO BE PACKING SUSTAINED WINDS OF
60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WOULD
BEGIN ON NANTUCKET AT APPROXIMATELY 3 AM FRIDAY.
...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 3.9 FEET OCCURS AT NANTUCKET AT 918 PM
THURSDAY NIGHT AND 2.7 FEET AT 1013 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 FEET WHICH
WOULD CAUSE SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER TO OCCUR.
AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 10.0 FEET OCCURS AT PROVINCETOWN AT
826 PM THURSDAY NIGHT AND 8.4 FEET AT 912 AM FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 FEET
WHICH WOULD CAUSE SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER TO OCCUR.
THE SURGES THAT ACTUALLY OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL SPEED OF
THE STORM. THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE STORM...WHETHER IT ARRIVES AT
HIGH TIDE OR AT LOW TIDE...WILL ALSO AFFECT THESE VALUES.
...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
IN PLYMOUTH AND BRISTOL COUNTIES OF MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS RHODE
ISLAND...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN. AS A
RESULT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FLOODING.
ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE INITIATED IF
3 INCHES OF RAIN WERE TO OCCUR IN ONE HOUR OR 4.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND IN RHODE ISLAND...2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ONE HOUR OR 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS
WOULD INITIATE FLOODING.
AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS OVER CAPE
COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON BY 9 PM.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND
INLAND RESIDENTS WILL BE CONTAINED IN PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
/KBOXPNSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE STORM THREAT.
ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN SHORT TERM
FORECASTS /KBOXNOWBOX/...AND IN THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER
PRODUCTS.
$$
FIELD/NBELK
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146191
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
079
WTNT32 KNHC 192354
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
800 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006
...BERYL NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE
COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST OR ABOUT 290
MILES...470 KM...SOUTH OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 365 MILES...585
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.
BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...200 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...36.6 N...73.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT32 KNHC 192354
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
800 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006
...BERYL NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE
COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST OR ABOUT 290
MILES...470 KM...SOUTH OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 365 MILES...585
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.
BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...200 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...36.6 N...73.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146191
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
The 11 PM advisory will be up in minutes.The question is ,what intensitie NHC will give.60,55,65,50? I will go with 60 mph.
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HurricaneHunter914
- Category 5
- Posts: 4439
- Age: 31
- Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
- Location: College Station, TX
I say 65 mph, man I am getting nervous whether the NHC decide to upgrade or downgrade.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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