WindRunner wrote:The update says no special advisory will be done . . . but the graphics will show the upgrade. That's a touch inconsistent, wouldn't you say?
Stewart probably wants to go home. Leave it to next forecaster on duty.
Beryl=Local and NHC Advisories
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TexasStooge
- Category 5
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brunota2003
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- Age: 34
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
400 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...FORECAST IN THE SHORT
TERM IS A MIXTURE OF NAM AND INTERPOLATION FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER TRACK OF TD #2. WEAKENING EXTENSION OF WESTERN RIDGE ACROSS
THE AREA WILL GIVE US ANOTHER CLEAR AND WARM NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS THE TD MOVES NORTHWEST. WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND DRY
ELSEWHERE. TD WILL MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AND IS FORECAST TO BE JUST
OFF HATTERAS BY 12Z THURSDAY. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS AND NORTHEAST AND TAPERED BACK TO CHANCE ALONG THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. STORM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. LIKELY
POPS IN THE NORTHEAST WILL TAPER OFF TO CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON.
POPS WILL BE LOWER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. ON FRIDAY WENT WITH CHANCE
POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA IN THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND BECOME STATIONARY EAST-WEST JUST SOUTH OF
THE NC/VA BORDER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. KEPT IT SIMPLE AND WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY IN THE EXTENDED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
400 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...FORECAST IN THE SHORT
TERM IS A MIXTURE OF NAM AND INTERPOLATION FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER TRACK OF TD #2. WEAKENING EXTENSION OF WESTERN RIDGE ACROSS
THE AREA WILL GIVE US ANOTHER CLEAR AND WARM NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS THE TD MOVES NORTHWEST. WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND DRY
ELSEWHERE. TD WILL MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AND IS FORECAST TO BE JUST
OFF HATTERAS BY 12Z THURSDAY. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS AND NORTHEAST AND TAPERED BACK TO CHANCE ALONG THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. STORM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. LIKELY
POPS IN THE NORTHEAST WILL TAPER OFF TO CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON.
POPS WILL BE LOWER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. ON FRIDAY WENT WITH CHANCE
POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA IN THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND BECOME STATIONARY EAST-WEST JUST SOUTH OF
THE NC/VA BORDER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. KEPT IT SIMPLE AND WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY IN THE EXTENDED.
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I stay away from the forum for a couple of days and look what happens 
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brunota2003
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- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
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brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9476
- Age: 34
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
TROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
604 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
BERYL...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS:
CARTERET...OUTER BANKS DARE AND OUTER BANKS HYDE.
...WATCHES...
AT 5 PM EDT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST FROM
NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 500 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35
MPH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
COASTAL RESIDENTS FROM CARTERET COUNTY NORTH ALONG THE OUTER BANKS
ARE URGED TO TAKE ACTION NOW TO PROTECT ANY PROPERTY THAT MAY BE
THREATENED BY TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS.
...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AS WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WATER LEVELS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH. WATER LEVEL INCREASES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE PAMLICO SOUND...WITH MINOR SOUNDSIDE FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER
OCRACOKE AND HATTERAS ISLANDS AS WATER LEVELS INCREASE TO 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL.
...WIND IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...WINDS WILL START TO REACH TROPICAL
STORM FORCE ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 35 TO 45 MPH...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER BANKS.
...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS...
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE EAST
FACING BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT.
$$
MLF/CGG
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
604 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
BERYL...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS:
CARTERET...OUTER BANKS DARE AND OUTER BANKS HYDE.
...WATCHES...
AT 5 PM EDT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST FROM
NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 500 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35
MPH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
COASTAL RESIDENTS FROM CARTERET COUNTY NORTH ALONG THE OUTER BANKS
ARE URGED TO TAKE ACTION NOW TO PROTECT ANY PROPERTY THAT MAY BE
THREATENED BY TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS.
...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AS WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WATER LEVELS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH. WATER LEVEL INCREASES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE PAMLICO SOUND...WITH MINOR SOUNDSIDE FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER
OCRACOKE AND HATTERAS ISLANDS AS WATER LEVELS INCREASE TO 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL.
...WIND IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...WINDS WILL START TO REACH TROPICAL
STORM FORCE ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 35 TO 45 MPH...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER BANKS.
...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS...
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE EAST
FACING BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT.
$$
MLF/CGG
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HurricaneBill
- Category 5
- Posts: 3420
- Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
- Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA
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JonathanBelles
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
000
WTNT32 KNHC 182344
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006
...BERYL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK
BEACH LIGHT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES...260 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS GENERAL TRACK
SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...33.8 N...73.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT32 KNHC 182344
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006
...BERYL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK
BEACH LIGHT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES...260 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS GENERAL TRACK
SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...33.8 N...73.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38117
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
0300 UTC WED JUL 19 2006
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF
CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 73.6W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 73.6W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 73.4W
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 35.0N 73.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 36.0N 73.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 37.5N 73.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 39.5N 71.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 42.0N 67.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 43.0N 61.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 44.5N 56.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 73.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
0300 UTC WED JUL 19 2006
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF
CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 73.6W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 73.6W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 73.4W
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 35.0N 73.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 36.0N 73.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 37.5N 73.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 39.5N 71.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 42.0N 67.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 43.0N 61.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 44.5N 56.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 73.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#neversummer
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38117
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006
...BERYL DRIFTING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH....
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF
CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST OR ABOUT 130
MILES...215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...34.1 N...73.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006
...BERYL DRIFTING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH....
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF
CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST OR ABOUT 130
MILES...215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...34.1 N...73.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#neversummer
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38117
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Here fishy, fishy.
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006
LAST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DVORAK SATELLITE
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT BERYL IS NOT CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED
TO A CURVED BAND MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. IN FACT...IT
SEEMS THAT THE CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT ATTACHED TO A FRONTAL ZONE.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
COOLER WATER AND THE SHEAR INCREASES EVEN MORE. BERYL SHOULD BEGIN
TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS OR LESS.
BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OF 350 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AROUND
THE WEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN
GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IN
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SINCE
MOST OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TURN BERYL TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...I AM
KEEPING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH UNTIL A DEFINITIVE TREND AWAY FROM
COAST BEGINS. THIS TREND COULD BEGIN AS SOON AS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0300Z 34.1N 73.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 35.0N 73.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 36.0N 73.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 37.5N 73.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 39.5N 71.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 42.0N 67.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 23/0000Z 43.0N 61.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 24/0000Z 44.5N 56.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006
LAST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DVORAK SATELLITE
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT BERYL IS NOT CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED
TO A CURVED BAND MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. IN FACT...IT
SEEMS THAT THE CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT ATTACHED TO A FRONTAL ZONE.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
COOLER WATER AND THE SHEAR INCREASES EVEN MORE. BERYL SHOULD BEGIN
TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS OR LESS.
BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OF 350 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AROUND
THE WEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN
GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IN
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SINCE
MOST OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TURN BERYL TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...I AM
KEEPING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH UNTIL A DEFINITIVE TREND AWAY FROM
COAST BEGINS. THIS TREND COULD BEGIN AS SOON AS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0300Z 34.1N 73.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 35.0N 73.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 36.0N 73.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 37.5N 73.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 39.5N 71.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 42.0N 67.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 23/0000Z 43.0N 61.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 24/0000Z 44.5N 56.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#neversummer
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38117
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- Contact:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
200 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006
...BERYL SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF
CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES...185 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR...AND A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...34.5 N...73.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
200 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006
...BERYL SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF
CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES...185 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR...AND A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...34.5 N...73.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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#neversummer
852
WTNT32 KNHC 190834
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
500 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006
...BERYL MOVING NORTHWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF
CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST OR ABOUT 110
MILES...175 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...34.7 N...73.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTNT32 KNHC 190834
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
500 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006
...BERYL MOVING NORTHWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF
CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST OR ABOUT 110
MILES...175 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...34.7 N...73.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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389
WTNT42 KNHC 190840
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
500 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006
THE CENTER WOBBLED A BIT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST A FEW HOURS AGO BUT
A RECENT FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE
MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTH...I.E. 360/6. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PASSING BY THE LONGITUDE OF BERYL AND
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER ONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE
SYSTEM IN 36-48 HOURS...WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDING IN
PLACE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...OUT OF RESPECT FOR A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE
GFDL AND GFS TRACKS. HOWEVER BOTH OF THESE MODELS SHOW A VERY WEAK
SYSTEM IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND IN FACT THE GFS SUGGEST THAT BERYL
WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH AN APPROACHING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN
2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE U.K. MET. OFFICE
TRACK WHICH APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE SOLUTION BASED ON THE
STEERING SCENARIO DESCRIBED ABOVE. BERYL IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...IF NOT SOONER.
THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HOLDING STEADY NEAR
1005 MB...AND PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 45 KT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS JUST SUPPORTS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE BROAD CENTER BUT THE
TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN 25-27
DEG C RANGE ALONG THE TRACK OF BERYL FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS SO
THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER
ANIMATION OF INFRARED IMAGES SHOW CIRRUS ELEMENTS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE STORM...INDICATIVE OF
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. GIVEN THE MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH APPEARS UNLIKELY.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IS BEING KEPT
AS A PRECAUTION AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0900Z 34.7N 73.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 35.7N 73.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 36.9N 73.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 38.6N 72.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 40.3N 70.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 44.0N 64.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 23/0600Z 47.0N 55.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 24/0600Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTNT42 KNHC 190840
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
500 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006
THE CENTER WOBBLED A BIT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST A FEW HOURS AGO BUT
A RECENT FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE
MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTH...I.E. 360/6. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PASSING BY THE LONGITUDE OF BERYL AND
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER ONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE
SYSTEM IN 36-48 HOURS...WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDING IN
PLACE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...OUT OF RESPECT FOR A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE
GFDL AND GFS TRACKS. HOWEVER BOTH OF THESE MODELS SHOW A VERY WEAK
SYSTEM IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND IN FACT THE GFS SUGGEST THAT BERYL
WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH AN APPROACHING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN
2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE U.K. MET. OFFICE
TRACK WHICH APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE SOLUTION BASED ON THE
STEERING SCENARIO DESCRIBED ABOVE. BERYL IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...IF NOT SOONER.
THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HOLDING STEADY NEAR
1005 MB...AND PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 45 KT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS JUST SUPPORTS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE BROAD CENTER BUT THE
TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN 25-27
DEG C RANGE ALONG THE TRACK OF BERYL FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS SO
THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER
ANIMATION OF INFRARED IMAGES SHOW CIRRUS ELEMENTS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE STORM...INDICATIVE OF
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. GIVEN THE MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH APPEARS UNLIKELY.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IS BEING KEPT
AS A PRECAUTION AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0900Z 34.7N 73.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 35.7N 73.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 36.9N 73.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 38.6N 72.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 40.3N 70.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 44.0N 64.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 23/0600Z 47.0N 55.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 24/0600Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on July 19, 2006
...Beryl slightly stronger as it continues northward...
a tropical storm watch remains in effect for the eastern coast of
North Carolina from north of Cape Lookout northward to south of
Currituck Beach Light. The watch will likely be discontinued later
this morning.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 800 am EDT...1200z...the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 35.1 north...longitude 73.7 west or about 105
miles...165 km...east of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Beryl is moving toward the north near 7 mph...11 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next
24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 100 miles...160
km...mainly northeast through southeast of the center.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft recently reported a
minimum central pressure of 1005 mb...29.68 inches.
Repeating the 800 am EDT position...35.1 N...73.7 W. Movement
toward...north near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 1100 am EDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on July 19, 2006
...Beryl slightly stronger as it continues northward...
a tropical storm watch remains in effect for the eastern coast of
North Carolina from north of Cape Lookout northward to south of
Currituck Beach Light. The watch will likely be discontinued later
this morning.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 800 am EDT...1200z...the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 35.1 north...longitude 73.7 west or about 105
miles...165 km...east of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Beryl is moving toward the north near 7 mph...11 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next
24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 100 miles...160
km...mainly northeast through southeast of the center.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft recently reported a
minimum central pressure of 1005 mb...29.68 inches.
Repeating the 800 am EDT position...35.1 N...73.7 W. Movement
toward...north near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 1100 am EDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146191
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTNT22 KNHC 191443
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
1500 UTC WED JUL 19 2006
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 73.7W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 85NE 85SE 35SW 35NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 73.7W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 73.7W
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 36.6N 73.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 85NE 85SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 37.9N 73.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 85NE 85SE 55SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 39.6N 71.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 85SE 75SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 41.3N 68.6W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 44.9N 61.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 85NE 85SE 35SW 35NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 47.0N 52.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.6N 73.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
833
WTNT42 KNHC 191442
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006
THE LAST RECON PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF BERYL THIS MORNING
INDICATED THE PRESSURE HAD DROPPED ANOTHER MILLIBAR DOWN TO 1004
MB. FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB WERE 52 KT IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT
IN CONVECTION...AND THAT IS THE JUSTIFICATION FOR INCREASING THE
INTENSITY TO 40 KT. ALSO...THE CORRECT PRONUNCIATION OF TROPICAL
STORM BERYL IS BERLE... LIKE THE LAST NAME OF MILTON BERLE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/08 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF RECON
...SATELLITE...AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHT AT 12Z SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION
CENTER MAY BE UNDERGOING SOME RE-ORGANIZATION CLOSER TO A BAND OF
STRONG CONVECTION THAT HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. AS
A RESULT... THERE MAY BE SOME WOBBLING TO THE WEST UNTIL CONVECTION
WRAPS AROUND THE EAST SIDE... BUT THE OVERALL MOTION SHOULD BE
NORTHERLY AND PARALLEL TO THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN THE SHORT
TERM. IN THE LONGER TERM... THE FORECAST TRACK HINGES HEAVILY ON
THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF BERYL. THE GFDL...GFS...AND NOGAPS
MODELS MOVE A VERY WEAK BERYL ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHEREAS THE UKMET...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF KEEP THE
CIRCULATION CENTER MORE OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WELL OFFSHORE. SINCE BERYL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM... THE LATTER SOLUTION OF KEEPING
THE CENTER OFFSHORE IS PREFERRED GIVEN THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES THAT IS EXPECTED TO CAPTURE THE CYCLONE AND MOVE IT
NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.
BANDING FEATURES IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE HAVE IMPROVED... AS HAS
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN. BERYL IS ALSO MOVING OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST
WATER ALONG ITS PAST AND FUTURE TRACK. HOWEVER... THESE FAVORABLE
INTENSIFICATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITHIN 12 HOURS...AND THE
CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE BERYL MOVES OVER
MUCH COOLER WATER BY 24H...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE SLOW WEAKENING AS
BERYL TRANSITIONS OVER TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/1500Z 35.6N 73.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 36.6N 73.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 37.9N 73.1W 50 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 39.6N 71.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 41.3N 68.6W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 22/1200Z 44.9N 61.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 23/1200Z 47.0N 52.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 24/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
WTNT42 KNHC 191442
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006
THE LAST RECON PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF BERYL THIS MORNING
INDICATED THE PRESSURE HAD DROPPED ANOTHER MILLIBAR DOWN TO 1004
MB. FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB WERE 52 KT IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT
IN CONVECTION...AND THAT IS THE JUSTIFICATION FOR INCREASING THE
INTENSITY TO 40 KT. ALSO...THE CORRECT PRONUNCIATION OF TROPICAL
STORM BERYL IS BERLE... LIKE THE LAST NAME OF MILTON BERLE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/08 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF RECON
...SATELLITE...AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHT AT 12Z SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION
CENTER MAY BE UNDERGOING SOME RE-ORGANIZATION CLOSER TO A BAND OF
STRONG CONVECTION THAT HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. AS
A RESULT... THERE MAY BE SOME WOBBLING TO THE WEST UNTIL CONVECTION
WRAPS AROUND THE EAST SIDE... BUT THE OVERALL MOTION SHOULD BE
NORTHERLY AND PARALLEL TO THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN THE SHORT
TERM. IN THE LONGER TERM... THE FORECAST TRACK HINGES HEAVILY ON
THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF BERYL. THE GFDL...GFS...AND NOGAPS
MODELS MOVE A VERY WEAK BERYL ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHEREAS THE UKMET...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF KEEP THE
CIRCULATION CENTER MORE OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WELL OFFSHORE. SINCE BERYL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM... THE LATTER SOLUTION OF KEEPING
THE CENTER OFFSHORE IS PREFERRED GIVEN THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES THAT IS EXPECTED TO CAPTURE THE CYCLONE AND MOVE IT
NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.
BANDING FEATURES IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE HAVE IMPROVED... AS HAS
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN. BERYL IS ALSO MOVING OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST
WATER ALONG ITS PAST AND FUTURE TRACK. HOWEVER... THESE FAVORABLE
INTENSIFICATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITHIN 12 HOURS...AND THE
CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE BERYL MOVES OVER
MUCH COOLER WATER BY 24H...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE SLOW WEAKENING AS
BERYL TRANSITIONS OVER TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/1500Z 35.6N 73.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 36.6N 73.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 37.9N 73.1W 50 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 39.6N 71.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 41.3N 68.6W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 22/1200Z 44.9N 61.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 23/1200Z 47.0N 52.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 24/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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WTNT32 KNHC 191444
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006
...BERYL GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...170 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM
...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...35.6 N...73.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
The tropical Storm watch has been discontinued.
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006
...BERYL GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...170 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM
...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...35.6 N...73.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
The tropical Storm watch has been discontinued.
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