Tropical Storm Beryl

HurricaneHunter914 · #381 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:30 pm

WindRunner wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Ok we have TS force winds 1917 3307N 07312W 00202 5033 199 035 218 218 036 00181 0000000000

That is at flight level.

Yeah, and that'll convert to about 32kts at the surface.

Which also converts to about 37 mph winds near the surface.

Noles2006 · #382 Postby **Noles2006** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:31 pm

It's closeeeee....

Thunder44 · #383 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:31 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:They'll probably make a Special Advisory. Till then this is TS Beryl in my books.

There's no need for special advisory. It's not intensifying rapidly. They will just upgrade at 5pm.

Aric Dunn · #384 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:34 pm

594 ft.. above sea level converts to about 39 mph from 41

EFrancis · #385 Postby **EFrancis** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:37 pm

5 PM advisory should tell us what we're all guessing; Tropical Storm Beryl. Winds 40 or 45 MPH...

Now the waiting game begins. Will it become a hurricane? At this point, I'll say it peaks out at a strong Tropical Storm, but it's too far away to tell.

#386 Postby **Lowpressure** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:38 pm

If it is a TS , it appears to barely be one. I would have thought a bit higher.

Thunder44 · #387 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:39 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Hurricane Floyd wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:12z GFDL shifted west. Makes landfall on Central Long Island.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

very intresting
uh-oh. May be the doomsday NY scenario could be coming to life. Hopefully not, but there seems to be a chance. I would watch this very closely if I were in the Big Apple.

Bring it on!

Even if it did become a Tropical Storm and make landfall on Long Island, there's not much change of a "doomsday" event.
no, not as a TS, but if this managed to become a hurricane then there would be a chance.

By the way the GFDL weakens it to a TD coming into Long Island. No doomsday scenerio here.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

conestogo_flood · #388 Postby **conestogo_flood** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:39 pm

Seems like two pages of arguing whether it is a tropical storm or not. How about we just wait until 5pm and stop trying to prove eachother wrong.

SWFLA_CANE · #389 Postby **SWFLA_CANE** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:40 pm

The plane still has not gone into the deepest convection...They will likely find stronger winds once they head back south-east from there current position.

Grease Monkey · #390 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:40 pm

conestogo_flood wrote:Seems like two pages of arguing whether it is a tropical storm or not. How about we just wait until 5pm and stop trying to prove eachother wrong.

Now what fun would that be?

#391 Postby **Lowpressure** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:41 pm

SWFLA_CANE wrote:The plane still has not gone into the deepest convection...They will likely find stronger winds once they head back south-east from there current position.

I agree, it looks to support 50mph on the visible. Looks can be deceiving, we will see.

#392 Postby **cjrciadt** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:49 pm

CNN just mentioned it in there new Weather Center, Oh Ah so nice. :wink:

Audrey2Katrina · #393 Postby **Audrey2Katrina** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:53 pm

Now what fun would that be?

speaks volumes!

A2K

#394 Postby **WxGuy1** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:56 pm

Lowpressure wrote:
SWFLA_CANE wrote:The plane still has not gone into the deepest convection...They will likely find stronger winds once they head back south-east from there current position.

I agree, it looks to support 50mph on the visible. Looks can be deceiving, we will see.

How do you estimate winds based on visible satellite images? Unless you have a clear shot of the lowest clouds, and you run some sort of analysis program to accurately track the clouds over a given amount of time, I think a "hunch" analysis is futile at best.

Thunder44 · #395 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:00 pm

I've noticed that NRL or the backup site hasn't changed their headers yet to "Beryl". Not sure if this upgrade is going to happen at 5pm.

#396 Postby **tgenius** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:01 pm

I don't believe surface winds of 39mph+ are present, so it will not be upgraded, obviously, just my opinion

#397 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:02 pm

Thunder44 wrote:I've noticed that NRL or the backup site hasn't changed their headers yet to "Beryl". Not sure if this upgrade is going to happen at 5pm.

That is why we have to wait for the official advisory at 5 PM and NRL is waiting too for word from NHC to change the headers.

#398 Postby **Lowpressure** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:02 pm

WxGuy1 wrote:
Lowpressure wrote:
SWFLA_CANE wrote:The plane still has not gone into the deepest convection...They will likely find stronger winds once they head back south-east from there current position.

I agree, it looks to support 50mph on the visible. Looks can be deceiving, we will see.

How do you estimate winds based on visible satellite images? Unless you have a clear shot of the lowest clouds, and you run some sort of analysis program to accurately track the clouds over a given amount of time, I think a "hunch" analysis is futile at best.

You are over rationalizing the post. Cloud structure and appearance have long been an indicator of a systems possible strength. Part of the Dvorak is pattern and structure. Stop bashing someone just because your avatar says pro met. If you can not "estimate" a system based on appearance, perhaps you should do more research. This is an opinions allowed amature/pro page.

#399 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:02 pm

Noles2006 wrote:It's closeeeee....

Very close.

Thunder44 · #400 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:10 pm

Latest visible imagery shows the center exposed partially on the south side.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Tropical Storm Beryl

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