Tropical Storm Beryl

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

#201 Postby drezee » Tue Jul 18, 2006 7:00 am

linkerweather wrote:Once again, I wasn't saying that there isn't a LLC there, but simply from those very first vis images there was no evidence that a tropical cyclone is forming.


The part that you "feel" that there is no evidence is an opinion just as I have given...that is the point that I was making
Last edited by drezee on Tue Jul 18, 2006 7:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145294
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#202 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 18, 2006 7:02 am

Anyone is entitled to his/her opinions but of course without attacks or personal bickerings.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
linkerweather
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 261
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:59 am
Location: tampa bay area

#203 Postby linkerweather » Tue Jul 18, 2006 7:03 am

Fair enough. No worries.
Last edited by linkerweather on Tue Jul 18, 2006 7:19 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Top
chadtm80

#204 Postby chadtm80 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 7:07 am

If it is any consilation I understand and agree with you linkweather.. One needs a lot more frames then that to call a LLC
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

#205 Postby drezee » Tue Jul 18, 2006 7:14 am

I cleaned up the last reply...those quotes make the page really long sometimes. :wink:

I believe that there is a LLC and right now we have 8 clear frames. IMO, 6 is enough (at least 15 minute intervals).
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
george_r_1961
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3171
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 9:14 pm
Location: Hampton, Virginia

#206 Postby george_r_1961 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 7:16 am

Looks like a little more pulse type convection flaring up this morning to the east of the..umm...center. *cough* The system still appears to me to be frontal in nature(although the front is fading fast) and WV imagery shows abundant dry air to the west.

That said: Tropical cyclone formation is not likely out of this system for 24 hours.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
linkerweather
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 261
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:59 am
Location: tampa bay area

#207 Postby linkerweather » Tue Jul 18, 2006 7:25 am

drezee wrote:I cleaned up the last reply...those quotes make the page really long sometimes. :wink:

I believe that there is a LLC and right now we have 8 clear frames. IMO, 6 is enough (at least 15 minute intervals).


Perhaps you have a crystal ball, earlier when you first posted there were 4 frames and it was difficult to see. Admittedly, after looking again, I can see what you are looking at. We shall see if the NHC issues a STDS soon.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

#208 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 7:25 am

Looks like Chris, I mean Beryl, will be forming off the east U.S. Coast over the next few days. NHC just issued a special statement about it. Looks like a great chance to develop, to me. Here's the latest model guidance:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/beryl1.gif

Very good agreement among the dynamic models in slow movement at first then kicking out to the NNE-NE over the next 48-72 hours. Probably no significant effects along the east U.S. Coast.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145294
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#209 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 18, 2006 7:27 am

000
WONT41 KNHC 181221
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
820 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING INDICATE THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
COAST HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING... AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
storms in NC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2338
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:58 pm
Location: Wallace,NC 40 miles NE of Wilm
Contact:
Contact storms in NC

#210 Postby storms in NC » Tue Jul 18, 2006 7:30 am

Weatherfreak000 wrote:
storms in NC wrote:It is not going to make it to any tropical characteristics. Let's sit back and enjoy reading other posts. :cheesy: Have a good night.



With all due respect you give no reasoning behind this, it holds no logic.


To save yourself being ridiculed I ask you at least give a REASON for thinking such a thing :roll:


Well as for last night there wasn't any thing there to show it was going to do any thing but sit there. With it still being in the frontal system there wasn't a way for it to form. Now it looks like it has broken away from it there is a slight chance it could be a subtropical to a TD but that would be as far I would take this. Looking at the satellites this morning looks like it maybe moving to the northeast. with the high to the west and east has not helped it either.

And I would like to say I am not good at writing things down but if we where face to face I could say alot lol. Sorry I didn't give the reasons behind what I said. Just a old lady that is sill learning
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
KatDaddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2815
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2002 6:23 pm
Location: League City, Texas

#211 Postby KatDaddy » Tue Jul 18, 2006 7:30 am

Agreed wxman57. Looks pretty good on first VIS images. I expect we will at least have TD 2 if not Beryl by the days end.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
linkerweather
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 261
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:59 am
Location: tampa bay area

12 z models in

#212 Postby linkerweather » Tue Jul 18, 2006 7:31 am

Initialized at 35 mph

WHXX01 KWBC 181211
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972006) ON 20060718 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060718 1200 060719 0000 060719 1200 060720 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.0N 73.5W 32.5N 74.1W 33.2N 74.7W 34.1N 75.5W
BAMM 32.0N 73.5W 32.6N 74.2W 33.4N 74.9W 34.1N 75.7W
A98E 32.0N 73.5W 32.8N 73.7W 33.9N 73.3W 34.6N 73.6W
LBAR 32.0N 73.5W 32.8N 73.8W 34.0N 74.3W 35.4N 74.4W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 42KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 39KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060720 1200 060721 1200 060722 1200 060723 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 34.9N 76.1W 35.8N 77.1W 37.1N 74.7W 41.4N 66.4W
BAMM 35.0N 76.3W 36.5N 76.2W 39.1N 70.9W 43.4N 59.3W
A98E 35.7N 73.4W 38.1N 71.4W 43.1N 61.3W 43.7N 44.1W
LBAR 36.8N 74.1W 40.1N 70.7W 45.1N 60.9W 49.3N 45.9W
SHIP 43KTS 43KTS 44KTS 38KTS
DSHP 43KTS 30KTS 33KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.0N LONCUR = 73.5W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 31.1N LONM12 = 73.9W DIRM12 = 65DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 31.4N LONM24 = 75.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#213 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 18, 2006 7:32 am

I knew it
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
george_r_1961
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3171
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 9:14 pm
Location: Hampton, Virginia

#214 Postby george_r_1961 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 7:34 am

Just saw the STDS. NHC knows more than me so its time to start taking this a tad more seriously here I reckon
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#215 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 7:52 am

wxman57 wrote:Looks like Chris, I mean Beryl, will be forming off the east U.S. Coast over the next few days. NHC just issued a special statement about it. Looks like a great chance to develop, to me. Here's the latest model guidance:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/beryl1.gif

Very good agreement among the dynamic models in slow movement at first then kicking out to the NNE-NE over the next 48-72 hours. Probably no significant effects along the east U.S. Coast.


Although I know the NAM is not good for TC forecasting. It has been most bullish on development and bring it very close to the NC/VA coast. Althought it seems to have developed a little sooner and further east.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145294
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#216 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 18, 2006 7:59 am

18/1145 UTC 33.0N 73.3W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic Ocean

This is the first sat estimate that SSD does for 97L.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#217 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 18, 2006 8:00 am

Image

Not bad!!!
0 likes   
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#218 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Jul 18, 2006 8:22 am

Looks fairly impressive this AM, looks like Beryl will be a fish.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

#219 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 8:24 am

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Not bad!!!


Looks Like "Chris" i mean Beryl..
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

#220 Postby drezee » Tue Jul 18, 2006 8:25 am

cycloneye wrote:000
WONT41
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING.


Vindication is such a sweet wine...
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2006”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests