Long Range GFS Model Discussion

['CaneFreak]

not trying to draw concern but look at this:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _360.shtml

interesting......hmmmmmm....

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

To complete what CaneFreak posted here is the loop of a more interesting run this 18z GFS long range loop.A Strong Wave moves from the Tropical Atlantic to the Bahamas,Florida and enters the GOM.See it for yourself.But remember,long range runs are not the best tool to get future forecasts however,they can show a trend.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

To complete what CaneFreak posted here is the loop of a more interesting run this 18z GFS long range loop.A Strong Wave moves from the Tropical Atlantic to the Bahamas,Florida and enters the GOM.See it for yourself.But remember,long range runs are not the best tool to get future forecasts but they can show a trend.

We'll see how that verifies with the gfs and yeah it is pretty far out. I don't think that the wave that is out there is what it is picking up on.

If anything we can see that it is making the atlantic more favorable for troipcal development pretty much right on time.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

To complete what CaneFreak posted here is the loop of a more interesting run this 18z GFS long range loop.A Strong Wave moves from the Tropical Atlantic to the Bahamas,Florida and enters the GOM.See it for yourself.But remember,long range runs are not the best tool to get future forecasts but they can show a trend.

We'll see how that verifies with the gfs and yeah it is pretty far out. I don't think that the wave that is out there is what it is picking up on.

If anything we can see that it is making the atlantic more favorable for troipcal development pretty much right on time.

SouthFloridawx,the last 2 days this run ends is on August 1 and 2,as you said on time for the peak months of the season.Now let's see what the 00z shows about this same thing to see a trend.

[cycloneye]

Very soon the 00z run of GFS will begin to trickle in.Let's see if what the 18z showed persists on the 00z.

[boca]

Luis you can lock my thread since I didn't see this one when I posted.

[beachbum_al]

And it is going where at the end? I hope not!

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at August 3



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

6z loop at 384 hours

What these two runs show is a wave moving thru the Bahamas,crossing the Florida Penninsula and heading to the north GOM but not as strong as yesterdays runs.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

12z at 384 loop going tru August 3rd.Shows a few waves moving just north of the Antilles,thru Bahamas and then tracking north.But anything yet that shows something stronger than a wave.n

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

00z Loop at 384 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

6z Loop at 384 hours.

Nothing very strong going thru August 4.However,there are a few strong waves moving thru the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

12z GFS at 384 loop.

A more active run at 12z

[gatorcane]

yes, it is indeed looking more active....lets see how it plays out

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

18z GFS at 384 loop that goes to August 4.At the end of loop a 1008 low appears SW of the CV islands.Let's see if there is a trend to keep that low or not in the next 00z run.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

00z GFS at 384 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

6z GFS at 384 hours.

Look at both runs in those loops where you can see an active pattern developing thru August 5.Especially look towards Africa at the end of the 6z loop where you can see a 1005 mb low.

[tailgater]

Yes it is looking like CV season is ramping up a bit. Cycloneye, do you know if the sf pressure is above normal for that region this time of year?

[cycloneye]

Yes it is looking like CV season is ramping up a bit. Cycloneye, do you know if the sf pressure is above normal for that region this time of year?

Depends on the Azores high on how high the pressures are in the tropical atlantic.If that azores high is weaker than average,then lower pressures will dominate and will be favorable for cyclogeneris.

[tailgater]

Yes it is looking like CV season is ramping up a bit. Cycloneye, do you know if the sf pressure is above normal for that region this time of year?

Depends on the Azores high on how high the pressures are in the tropical atlantic.If that azores high is weaker than average,then lower pressures will dominate and will be favorable for cyclogeneris.

Yes, but would you say it's normal or above normal climatology(stronger). The reason I asked is because it seems like the waves are rolling off at a lower Lat. then normal so far.

[cycloneye]

That is because thast azores high has been somewhat south than average in latutud and that position pushes the ITCZ further south and that includes the waves.But right now the ITCZ is in a more normal position zig-zaging up and down in latitud.

[tailgater]

That is because thast azores high has been somewhat south than average in latutud and that position pushes the ITCZ further south and that includes the waves.But right now the ITCZ is in a more normal position zig-zaging up and down in latitud.

Thanks Luis and for posting loops.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

12z GFS at 384 hours going to August 5.Nothing to say that is a TD at this run,But some waves appear in the loop sometimes strong and sometimes weaker.