Tropical Storm Beryl

HurricaneHunter914 · #161 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 7:52 pm

Still needs tropical characteristics to actually become a TC.

#162 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 8:07 pm

It is not going to make it to any tropical characteristics. Let's sit back and enjoy reading other posts. :cheesy:

Have a good night.

Weatherfreak000 · #163 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 8:34 pm

storms in NC wrote:It is not going to make it to any tropical characteristics. Let's sit back and enjoy reading other posts. Have a good night.

With all due respect you give no reasoning behind this, it holds no logic.

To save yourself being ridiculed I ask you at least give a REASON for thinking such a thing :roll:

#164 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 8:40 pm

Ahhh here we go...

WindRunner · #165 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 8:52 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:GFDL does bring the winds associated with 97L to tropical storm force as it moves Northward through a weakness in the ridge.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

I'll be interested to see if on the Cyclone Phase page if this will be warm or cold core in nature.
Actually Cat 1, it peaks at 65 knots...now whether its showing the area as extratropical or tropical at that time remains to be seen...

Yeah, but two things:

1. That's 950mb wind (i.e. above the surface). Take a good 5kts off (at least in this case) the numbers you see.

2. When it is at 65kts, the pressure is 1008 mbs - ever seen a hurricane at that point? Yes, granted, environmental pressures are rather high as well (about 1018-1020 mb), but that just brings up another point - the Bermuda high is building westward, yet it gets pushed out of the way as this storm moves up the coast in a weakness that would probably have been almost filled by that point. The whole deal seems a touch unlikely to happen, if you ask me.

Also note that it never deepens below 1007mbs (at 48hrs) and fluxuates between 1012 and 1008 a lot- just some idea of the overall development scheme . . .

#166 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 8:56 pm

What forecast models are good at forecasting intesity though? The first run from GFDL wasn't even able to analyze this area and now it's forecasting it to strengthen as it moves up the East Coast. IMO the general direction that GFDL takes this "system" is around the building high pressure. It is already on the western edge of the Bermuda high ... I thought yesterday that High Pressure would lend support to the Bermuda high but, the trough has stuck around more. This area may not develope and it may remain along the trough. Tomorrow morning we will know much more.

MiamiensisWx · #167 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:01 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:I thought yesterday that High Pressure would lend support to the Bermuda high but, the trough has stuck around more.

That has also helped to erode the Bermuda-Azores High somewhat more and keep the trough in place somewhat more, as evidenced on this loop and current surface charts.

#168 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:17 pm

#169 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:18 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 180207
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE AREA ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT
AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
WATER NEVERTHELESS...INTERESTS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A STRONG NON-TROPICAL LOW PASSING ABOUT 185 MILES SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA IS RAPIDLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. A CANADIAN BUOY
RECENTLY REPORTED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
FALL AS THE LOW MOVED NEARBY. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER COOLER
WATERS AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS GALE AREA CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER FZNTO1 KWBC AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN
UPPER LOW. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH IN THE AREA AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI

HurricaneHunter914 · #170 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:21 pm

Lets hope Recon can find signs of a LLC and TD force winds tomorrow so this can be upgraded.

skufful · #171 Postby **skufful** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:33 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Lets hope Recon can find signs of a LLC and TD force winds tomorrow so this can be upgraded.

Let's hope it dissipates.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #172 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:38 pm

Why you don't like weak systems?

skufful · #173 Postby **skufful** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:42 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Why you don't like weak systems?

I am one of those who would worry what the Gulf Steam could do to a "weak" storm. I certainly don't mind a rain maker, and don't think it would head landward anyway, but you never know.

HurricaneHunter914 · #174 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:47 pm

97L is in an area where the Gulf Stream isn't as warm as it is near the Florida coast so it will likely become a medium to strong TS before it moves into cooler waters.

Website · #175 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:11 pm

It's looking pretty bad tonight. Defintely on life support. No way recon goes out with it looking like it does now.

cheezyWXguy · #176 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:12 pm

I bet convection will form later tonight...if it does and persists, you can say TD2 by tomorrow night and Beryl the next day

#177 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:14 pm

cheezywxman wrote:I bet convection will form later tonight...if it does and persists, you can say TD2 by tomorrow night and Beryl the next day

with all the rapid intesifyers in the EPAC i wouldnt doubt it

#178 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:18 pm

Well im about ready to say goodbye to 97L..looks worse everytime i look at it. There is little if any convection left. Dry air seems to be killing it. Its getting difficult to find the llc too as it has become even more diffuse. IMO chances of tropical development..at least in the short term..are slim to none.

cheezyWXguy · #179 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:22 pm

george_r_1961 wrote:Well im about ready to say goodbye to 97L..looks worse everytime i look at it. There is little if any convection left. Dry air seems to be killing it. Its getting difficult to find the llc too as it has become even more diffuse. IMO chances of tropical development..at least in the short term..are slim to none.

The why has the probability of cyclone genesys increased?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrfpr.gif

#180 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:25 pm

cheezywxman wrote:
george_r_1961 wrote:Well im about ready to say goodbye to 97L..looks worse everytime i look at it. There is little if any convection left. Dry air seems to be killing it. Its getting difficult to find the llc too as it has become even more diffuse. IMO chances of tropical development..at least in the short term..are slim to none.

The why has the probability of cyclone genesys increased?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrfpr.gif

Dont know..im just going by what ive been seeing all day. Its been steadily deteriorating. And I dont see any reason to think it wil develop at least for the next couple of days. Just my humble opinion. 8-)

Tropical Storm Beryl

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