NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE/GALE AREA, S of NS

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #141 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 2:55 pm

Larry(2003) had a frontal system when they upgraded it.

Derek Ortt · #142 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 3:06 pm

no... Larry had nothing to do with a front

In fact, NHC did not upgrade it for a long time because it was cold core (rare for a surface cyclone to be cold core in September over the BOC)

#143 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 5:33 pm

I edited the title of this thread as there is an exsisting thread for 97L. This is for the Low pressure system and Gale area South of Nova Scotia.

#144 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 5:41 pm

wxman57 wrote:Here's a mid afternoon color shot of the unnamed TS. I think it looks more tropical than "extratropical". Perhaps the NHC just figured it would go away quietly into the higher wind shear just to its north, so they didn't want to start issuing advisories? I know it won't be affecting the U.S. Coast, but I think it would be a hard argument to make that Alberto was a better-organized TS than this system.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/98La.gif

Posting the image that wxman posted in the Atlantic Wave Thread. Pretty interesting storm up there.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #145 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 5:46 pm

I agree wxman57...

WindRunner · #146 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 5:56 pm

That picture even has an eye . . . the NHC missed this one big time.

And since the NOGAPS and GFS (the only two models that initialized it, sadly) both show very warm-core profiles, I'd definately say this was a missed storm. The frontal thing is kind of opinionated (IMHO), and I have a feeling this will be the one storm this year that the NHC will not declare, as there is always one storm that all the amateurs here think should be declared, and never is.

And one last comparison here: A picture of Zeta from last year. It looks awfully familiar right now, doesn't it?

Extremeweatherguy · #147 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 6:01 pm

I would bet that they re-evaluate and call this a storm after the season ends, because that Sat. picture looks just like Alberto at peak intensity.

Jim Cantore · #148 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 6:09 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I would bet that they re-evaluate and call this a storm after the season ends, because that Sat. picture looks just like Alberto at peak intensity.

I was about to say the exact same thing

#149 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 6:22 pm

By far way better looking than Alberto ever did...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #150 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 6:26 pm

In earlier it had stronger convection to...Its starting to feel the cold waters in turn extratropical.

DESTRUCTION5 · #151 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:30 pm

WindRunner wrote:That picture even has an eye . . . the NHC missed this one big time.

And since the NOGAPS and GFS (the only two models that initialized it, sadly) both show very warm-core profiles, I'd definately say this was a missed storm. The frontal thing is kind of opinionated (IMHO), and I have a feeling this will be the one storm this year that the NHC will not declare, as there is always one storm that all the amateurs here think should be declared, and never is.

And one last comparison here: A picture of Zeta from last year. It looks awfully familiar right now, doesn't it?

WTF??? I hate to say anything about the NHC but how the Frig do you call that a non tropical low?!!!

I know this was Zeta forgot to quote the Simularity pic. My bad..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/avn-l.jpg

#152 Postby **brunota2003** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:31 pm

thats a pic of Zeta DESTRUCTION5...

MiamiensisWx · #153 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:39 pm

Here's another image of this unnamed system from earlier today from Jim (wxman57)...

Possible subtropical/tropical storm earlier today

boca · #154 Postby **boca** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:48 pm

That's definetly a storm of tropical origin from that pic.

#155 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 7:32 am

Now the question is whether they will upgrade it in post-analysis. It's anyone's call, but that system did look very subtropical storm-ish at the very least.

#156 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 7:55 am

Hurricanehink wrote:Now the question is whether they will upgrade it in post-analysis. It's anyone's call, but that system did look very subtropical storm-ish at the very least.

They will have time from now to the end of the season to analyse and re-analyse information and weather images. I will go for an upgrade. The system may have had extratropical characteristics but at one point the convection was very organized and temperature rise gives an indication that the system may had some warm in its center. Lets wait for the NHC final word.

Noles2006 · #157 Postby **Noles2006** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:54 am

So... should this be named Unnamed Subtropical Storm 1, and TD 2 become TS Beryl... we're at 3 storms this year... which is above-average.

WindRunner · #158 Postby **WindRunner** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:59 am

And don't forget the system that formed right off the NC coast around the end of June (the 27th, to be exact). It could very easily be upgraded as well later in the year, as several north wind components were found after recon left the system.

Noles2006 · #159 Postby **Noles2006** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 10:02 am

WindRunner wrote:And don't forget the system that formed right off the NC coast around the end of June (the 27th, to be exact). It could very easily be upgraded as well later in the year, as several north wind components were found after recon left the system.

OH, yes, forgot about that one... but I do think yesterday's system has a better chance of being upgraded.... it definitely had the LLC and winds... the other one is a close[r] call.

NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE/GALE AREA, S of NS

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