Too Quiet For Me ... Starting to Spook Me Some

[benny]

'Tis July so I'm not that worried.. but June/July conditions can certainly presage activity later in the year. So far the Atlantic ridge has been considerably stronger than average. The shear is about average which is different than any of the past 3 years. We are moving deeper into the positive phase of the MJO which should lessen the shear over the next week... we'll see how it averages out. Finally the waves have some amplitude to cut into the ridge so that these stronger-than-average trades are weakening... so SSTAs should rise in the next couple of weeks...

[CrazyC83]

I think this is a time bomb waiting to explode with enormous activity.

[MississippiHurricane]

I think because of last year, we kinda expected the season so far to be active: I know I certainly expected to be. I figured we would be on a "D" storm by now. I guess I was hoping to track fish storms.

[crazycajuncane]

Things can change in a matter of days. Just look at last summer.... everyone was throwing in the towel around mid august.... and I do recall on my way to Florida on Dec. 31st there was a tropical storm forming hahaha.

As long as the waters of the gulf of Mexico remain hot.... that first storm that comes through is going to be dangerous.

[frederic79]

I think the thing that makes these quiet (normal) conditions so unnerving is just that Dr. Gray and NOAA have been on or below target the last two years with their forecasts. If this holds true in 2006, much of the forecast intense tropical activity will happen during the peak months of August, September and October when ssts are at their warmest and shear generally abates according to climo. That could mean a shorter but more conducive window of opportunity for storms form and intensify. Many of us on the Gulf Coast just aren't ready for the threat, mentally or otherwise since Katrina is still very much a daily part of our vocabulary.

[Bluefrog]

Quite frankly, I'm brain dead from Katrina. I still need another year to recover.

[NC George]

This also means we are dry right now which is good because IF we do get storm then the local rivers could probably handle it well.

Not as dry as you would think here in Eastern NC, The Tar River is at 9.5 feet today, the normal this time of year is around 4 feet, and flood is at 13.5 feet.