Long Range GFS Model Discussion

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Now that the long range runs at 384 hours has reached August,it will be interesting to see what the GFS at long range shows from now on.We know that very long range forecasts are not a good tool to look for,however it can show us trends.What I see in this particular run is the subtropical ridge dominating and fairly strong waves and weak low pressures moving across the Atlantic from Africa.But nothing that looks yet stronger than a tropical wave.

This thread is for the members to post the long range runs from GFS and other models and to have discussions about their data.

[Frank2]

As you mentioned, a forecast that far in advance is of little use, but, in looking at the run, it appears very average for the time of year, which is in keeping with the current "average" storm total for mid-July of 1-0-0.

Statistically, it seems that seasons like this (that behave in a climatologically normal manner) tend to stay average throughout, with maximums at their normal times (early June, late August through mid-September, and mid-October), so, it'll be interesting to see if this does turn out this way through the remainder of the season.

Frank

[skysummit]

Yes, a forecat that long out is of little use on individual storms, however, like Luis mentioned, the GFS is pretty good on trends that far out.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

GFS 12z at 384 hours.Still nothing that shows up that may be a TD until August 1,even what is off the Carolinas.

[Aquawind]

The Latest..

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
142 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006

VALID 12Z WED JUL 19 2006 - 12Z SUN JUL 23 2006

WHILE THE VALUES OF THE HEIGHT ANOMALIES DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
PD KEEP CHANGING FROM DAY TO DAY AROUND NORTH AMERICA...THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING TROUGHING ALG 160W NORTH OF
THE 40TH PARALLEL WHICH TELECONNECTS TO A REX BLOCK NR/OFFSHORE
THE WEST COAST WITH TROUGHING BECOMING ESTABLISHED BETWEEN THE
85TH AND 90TH MERIDIANS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GRTLKS AS THE UPR CYC
IN NERN CAN IS FORCED SOUTHWARD BY INCREASED RIDGING ACRS WRN
CAN...CLOSE TO THE PATTERN WHICH FADED AWAY BETWEEN JULY 4-9. THIS
REQUIRED CHANGES TO CONTINUITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EAST TO SHIFT
FRONTAL ZONES FARTHER SWD. A 00Z ECMWF/00Z NCEP ENSMEAN WAS USED
FOR PLACEMENT OF FEATURES AND PRESSURES UNTIL DAYS 6 AND 7 WHEN A
TREND CLOSER TOWARDS THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS USED. THE
00Z GFS APPEARS TOO FAR WEST W/ITS TROUGH LATE IN THE PD PER
TELECONNECTIONS.

12Z GFS FOLLOWING 06Z GFS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE ECMWF IN BUILDING
EVEN MORE RIDGING NWWD INTO THE PAC NW AND B.C. LATE PERIOD. THIS
ALLOWS FOR MORE DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN TROF AND
FARTHER SWD FRONTAL PENETRATION.

...EAST/CENTRAL...
A CONTD QUITE WARM TO HOT WEEK. MOS TEMPS VALUES TOO COLD ALONG
AND NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM THE EAST COAST TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PREVIOUS HPC AND NDFD VALUES MOSTLY PREFERRED. COOLING
EXPECTED NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE NORTHEAST AND
MID ATLC DROPPING TEMPS TO MORE NORMAL JULY VALUES NEXT WEEKEND.

...WEST...
CONTD HOT WITH RISING HTS INTO THE PAC NW WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHER HTS OF THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS RUNS
INDICATE EVEN HOTTER CONDS THAN THE ALREADY QUITE WARM MOS VALUES.
TEMP VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR EXCEED 100 OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF
WA/OR/CA/NV. THIS WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE CURRENT WRN FIRE
PROBLEMS.

...W ATLC...
HVY CONVECTION OFF THE SC COAST UNDER A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF KEYED
UPON BY MODELS PARTICULARLY GFS RUNS DEVELOPING A SUBTROPICAL LOW
BUT MOVING IT NEWD TO NRN MID ATLC AND THEN NEW ENG OFFSHORE
WATERS BY DAY 3 WED. LOW FORMING IN A FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL
REGION FOR JULY. IF IT SPINS UP DEEPER LIKE GFS RUNS THIS WOULD
BRING DOWN A COOLER NRLY FLOW DAY 3 WED ALONG THE NEW ENG COAST
AND POSSIBLY SWD. COORDINATION WITH TPC CONCURRING ON DEVELOPMENT
WITH TPC PREFERENCE TO SLOW DOWN NEWD MOVEMENT. SYSTEM SCHEDULED
FOR RECON TOMORROW. UPDATED POSITION FOR DAY 3 WED 36N71W AND
40N65W WELL OFF THE ERN SEABOARD.
...ALASKA...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE CONT TO BE VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS NEXT DEEP
CLOSED MID LEVEL AND SFC LOW COMING EWD SOUTH OF THE ARCHIPELAGO
WITH AGIN GFS FASTER THAN ECMWF BUT GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MUCH CLOSER
TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION. ALL MODELS BUILD RIDGING DOWNSTREAM WITH
RISING HTS OVER THE STATE SAT ANDS SUN
ROTH/ROSENSTEIN
‘



000
NOUS42 KNHC 161500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 16 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-047

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY..POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 18/1800Z NEAR 35N 72W

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
RMH

[Derek Ortt]

that should say recon for Tuesday, not tomorrow

[Aquawind]

Exactly 18/1800Z is Tues afternoon

[Recurve]

I looked for a definition of a "REX BLOCK" (mentioned in today's extended discussion)

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/178/

for anyone who's interested.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

18z GFS run at 384 hours loop shows anything strong until August 1.In fact all four runs from today did not showed anything that resembles anything stronger than a tropical wave.Let's see what the runs for tommorow show as they will get to August 2nd.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB said today that he thinks 2-3 systems may be possible within the near future as a pulse of upward motion over the Pacific moves eastward into the Atlantic.

[SouthFloridawx]

JB said today that he thinks 2-3 systems may be possible within the near future as a pulse of upward motion over the Pacific moves eastward into the Atlantic.

I also have a feeling we'll be having a couple of systems to track in the next couple of weeks.

[cycloneye]

JB said today that he thinks 2-3 systems may be possible within the near future as a pulse of upward motion over the Pacific moves eastward into the Atlantic.

I also have a feeling we'll be having a couple of systems to track in the next couple of weeks.

Remember both of you that these are long range runs that can change from one day to another.This model (GFS) isn't showing anything that may develop today but that can change tommorow.

[Dean4Storms]

Well, from everything I've seen there are hints that things will begin to improve as far as favorable cyclogenisis parameters are concerned come near the end of this month, a MJO positve phase, lowering overall pressures in the Carib. and the time of year all coming together. The only question marks will be the SAL and the strength of the Atlantic Ridge, if these waves are trucking along at 20+mph they won't stand much of a chance in developing.

[benny]

Well, from everything I've seen there are hints that things will begin to improve as far as favorable cyclogenisis parameters are concerned come near the end of this month, a MJO positve phase, lowering overall pressures in the Carib. and the time of year all coming together. The only question marks will be the SAL and the strength of the Atlantic Ridge, if these waves are trucking along at 20+mph they won't stand much of a chance in developing.

All of those things are related.. including the SAL and the Atlantic ridge strength. The SAL is basically always there... it is the amplitude of the waves and the moisture they carry that insulates them from that airmass.. or if they have so much vorticity they can ignore some of the downdrafts from tstms that form...

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

This is the GFS 6z run which still does not show anything stronger than a wave going into August 2nd.

[caneman]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

This is the GFS 6z run which still does not show anything stronger than a wave going into August 2nd.

Yes but GFS looks to devlop both East coast systems.

[storms in NC]

I don't think the 2nd one will do any thing. I don't see any thing on the loop. I will wait to see what the day brings

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

This is the GFS 6z run which still does not show anything stronger than a wave going into August 2nd.

Yes but GFS looks to devlop both East coast systems.

I dont see anything at the run that is strong like a TD.

[caneman]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

This is the GFS 6z run which still does not show anything stronger than a wave going into August 2nd.

Yes but GFS looks to devlop both East coast systems.

I dont see anything at the run that is strong like a TD.

O looked closer and you're right - link below but looks close. I think the Northern one is already.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

12z GFS at 384 hours above at loop that goes to August 2nd.Still anything very strong,although there are several waves that look healthy but none go a step ahead.