NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE/GALE AREA, S of NS

[Coredesat]

Actually, I made this one for such an occasion. Feel free to use it.

[Recurve]

Excellent image TR!

Two of them too, like our little lows.

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like that stalled front keeps getting pushed farther and farther south. Pushing it more and more into the gulf stream. NC/SC may have something to deal with here in the next couple of days if only a subtropical storm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-rb.html

[Aric Dunn]

The system east of jacksonville is continuing to show signs of development throughout today .. and will continue tonight and tomorrow .. would not be supprised if we wake up in the morning and have a developing TD.... The system has a upper high formimg right over it... and there is suffiecent evidence of a Low closing of around 75 to 76 west and 32 to 33 north ... .. the water temps are well warm enough .... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... ecent.html

and steering currents are weak right now.. and it should wander around for a while or drift SE to S slowly until a trough comes and picks it up in few days ... or at least thats what it looks like at the moment

[Aric Dunn]

Take a look at the 850 MB vorticity.. there is strong evidence of organization this evening,,,, it will need to be very closly monitered... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... ecent.html

[SouthFloridawx]

Take a look at the 850 MB vorticity.. there is strong evidence of organization this evening,,,, it will need to be very closly monitered... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... ecent.html

Does it look like to you that that area of Convection is being pushed farther south?

[Aric Dunn]

Well it is ..the frontal boudry that it is still attached to is sagging slowly southward.. as the High over the eastern Us Build east and south... it will probably be very intresting in the morning.. with possible TD forming over night and tom... ( more likely tomorrow on the TD part) if the system form it will porbably drift SE to S then SW before heading out to see.. if the trought that is forcast to approach the area is strong enough .. becasue right now everything is very Zonal and ther is not much troughiness at all ..

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The first one has a well defined LLC but its broad...Most of its convection is being pushed to the southeast. But the system is not moving very fast...

The second one seems to be a trough line from the first low to around 32.5/75...This area appears to have started to develop a broad surface low pressure area. With convection starting to fire. I would watch this for development...I say 70 percent chance this develops.

[george_r_1961]

The first one has a well defined LLC but its broad...Most of its convection is being pushed to the southeast. But the system is not moving very fast...

The second one seems to be a trough line from the first low to around 32.5/75...This area appears to have started to develop a broad surface low pressure area. With convection starting to fire. I would watch this for development...I say 70 percent chance this develops.

Matt I agree...we could have Beryl menacing the Carolinas soon.

[Aric Dunn]

Here is a IR loop show the system quite well .. and where the LOW maybe closing off http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huecir.html

[Aric Dunn]

The first low is done to much shear and cooler waters the Second low has developing High pressure over and 27 28 Degree C water under it.. with weak steering currents in all levels ... althoug the Deep layer is predomiantly to the Se then S or Sw .. that will be the motion of the system over then day or so before a trough that is forcasts later on may try to kick it out... ( note the high building over the eatern Us is quite strong.. )

[benny]

looking pretty interesting se of cape cod.. if that system doesn't go maybe we can get the other one se of the carolinas.. hell it is possible to get both. the northern one appears to be getting better-defined and is starting to look like a sheared tropical cyclone... the southern one has plenty of time and i wouldn't be surprised if that didn't go ...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

My option is that the northern system is sheared with all its convection to the southeast. But has a well defined LLC and shown on FSU phase to be warm core. So it most likely is a sheared tropical depression or tropical storm.

[Stormavoider]

I think we may have 3 different systems here.
1. 38n 67w
2. 33n 76w
3. the blob of convection that broke off and is at about 30n 77w

[Nimbus]

At least temporarily we should see an elongated circulation. Usually once a front misses one of these Carolina lows it drops south in response to the high pressure behind the front. Could get pretty close to or over Florida before another digging trough pulls it out.

[NDG]

I just don't see a Carolinas threat at this time, if anything I see this system moving SE away from the Carolina coast right now, even if this system doesn't get picked up by the trough coming down in N.E. by Tues/Wed, it will meander until even a bigger trough comes down the NE for the end of the week & weekend. For it to move towards the Carolinas you would need the Atlantic ridge to track westward with a big push, but it will fall short of doing that this coming week. It could get close to the outer banks but that will be about it.

[Dean4Storms]

A whole lot a twistin going on.

[shaggy]

the buoys offshore now show a NE wind at frying pan shoals and a WSW wind on the buoy thats 250 east of charleston.Clearly a sign of a low but just a wait and see.It will be interesting to see what happen with the bermuda as that will be the steering for the storm.

Maybe a Alex like repeat?????

[Stormavoider]

I think we may have 3 different systems here.
1. 38n 67w
2. 33n 76w
3. the blob of convection that broke off and is at about 30n 77w

Upon further review make that 2 systems.
3. "The blob" looks like it's going to wrap around and interact with 2.

[Aric Dunn]

Actually the masive high that is building east a south over the North east and eastern US will be the dominate steering . so a slow drift to the SE, or even SW over the next few days will likely take place .. as there is now no signs of any significant trough coming antime soon .. since record highs over North dakota or the past and south dakota with all time highs yesterday of 117 and 112 today IN S Dakota... .. so it will be at least 3 to 4 days until something comes along to kick it out.... so in the mean time just drifting around Probably SSEor S oe SW .. .. and with an upper high over it stregthing seems likely at least at the moment