MJO

[cycloneye]

and may not have a strong effect for the Atlntic, like the Pacific.

I remember that was one point of contention during my trop met class in spring of 2005

Derek,do you think MJO is more weak this year and not have a big influence?

[cycloneye]

The wet phase of MJO has arrived for the most part in the Atlantic Basin.But still the core of this wet phase is in the EPAC.

[gatorcane]

The wet phase of MJO has arrived for the most part in the Atlantic Basin.But still the core of this wet phase is in the EPAC.

Luis, do you think we'll start seeing more shower/thunderstorm activity in the Atlantic now that the MJO wet phase has arrived? If so when?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Once that core of the wet phase reaches the Atlantic I think the tropics are going to erupt.

[cycloneye]

The wet phase of MJO has arrived for the most part in the Atlantic Basin.But still the core of this wet phase is in the EPAC.

Luis, do you think we'll start seeing more shower/thunderstorm activity in the Atlantic now that the MJO wet phase has arrived? If so when?

In a couple of weeks you will see a change in the Atlantic to more favorable conditions as this wet phase pulse enters completly the Atlantic.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The wet phase of MJO has arrived for the most part in the Atlantic Basin.But still the core of this wet phase is in the EPAC.

Luis, do you think we'll start seeing more shower/thunderstorm activity in the Atlantic now that the MJO wet phase has arrived? If so when?

In a couple of weeks you will see a change in the Atlantic to more favorable conditions as this wet phase pulse enters completly the Atlantic.

yeah, and this is why I think in 8-12 days we are going to see a major upswing in Atlantic development.

[HurricaneHunter914]

When you say a couple of weeks do you mean August?

[cycloneye]

When you say a couple of weeks do you mean August?

Look at calender of July and see when it will be a couple of weeks from today.

[gatorcane]

When you say a couple of weeks do you mean August?

Look at calender of July and see when it will be a couple of weeks from today.

I'd have to agree with your assessment. I have been predicting our next TD which will form into a TS will form sometime around Aug 1st +/- 5 days...

that puts us about 2 weeks out until we see any significant development

[Extremeweatherguy]

18Z GFS is showing tons of moisture in the Gulf starting on day 5:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml

The moisture then works toward the northern and western Gulf by day 7:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

And heavy rains look likely for much of the Gulf by day 9:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml

We will have to watch and see if anything tropical comes out of this mess.

[HurricaneHunter914]

So far this year the GFS has shown alot of possible TCs forming but so far only Alberto was the only right one.

[skysummit]

So far this year the GFS has shown alot of possible TCs forming but so far only Alberto was the only right one.

Too bad the GFS didn't show Alberto until the last minute though. Only the Canadian and NAM showed Alberto.

[cycloneye]

Not quite yet,the core of the wet phase of MJO has arrived in the Atlantic.Still that core is in the EPAC where it has been very active as Bud,Carlotta formed with this wet phase there.Right now two disturbances are organizing into cyclones in that basin.

[SouthFloridawx]

The wet phase of MJO has arrived for the most part in the Atlantic Basin.But still the core of this wet phase is in the EPAC.

Well I certainly see why there see's to be more convection in the Caribbean as Wet MJO is probably involved here.


Also I have read here at storm2k that wet MJO causes more rising air eliminaing that Mid to upper level windshear... as indicated with the Shear Tendency Map here at CIMSS in the Southwestern Caribbean.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8sht-1.GIF

[HurricaneHunter914]

If you look at the MJO map, it seems like the wet MJO is decreasing as it moves into the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

Mike Watkins will talk about MJO at show.It has arrived partially in the Atlantic.

http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO/MJO.forecast.olr.png

[JonathanBelles]

when did the last wave go thru?

[JonathanBelles]

im still not sure if i get the mjo

['CaneFreak]

looks as though the dry phase is trying to set up again....wow..ugh..

[hcane27]

It is not unusual for the MJO to "dry" as it enters the Atlantic basin. This one appears to be no different than "usual". Impact and influence likely to be minimal, but I didn't say none, just not explosive.