Explosive Thunderstorm Development over GS

['CaneFreak]

I know that this system is just a bundle of thunderstorms; but, i also know that systems form from the tail end of frontal boundaries this time of year. I also know that the Gulf Stream is a very good place for TCs to form because Hurricane Alex in 2004 formed in the same situation and pretty much the same conditions. Thoughts about this system?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huecwv.html

[beachbum_al]

I am sorry but when I read that I thought it said GOM. I need to wake up some this morning. That loop looks interesting but I will let someone more experience than I comment on it.

['CaneFreak]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161502
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH AND
SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS AND CONTINUING EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF BERMUDA. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE WARM
GULFSTREAM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BEFORE IT EVENTUALLY
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART/RHOME[/b]

[skysummit]

So pretty much no threat to anyone even if it does develop a bit.

['CaneFreak]

As long as it doesn't just sit there...storms that have supposed to move northeastward have stalled over gulf stream because steering currents weren't strong enough...we'll have to watch it though...

[drezee]

Excuse me NHC...Would you speak into my good ear?...Do you say Recon?

071
NOUS42 KNHC 161500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 16 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-047

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY..POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 18/1800Z NEAR 35N 72W

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
RMH

[brunota2003]

dang...recon already, for tuesday of course, and this started this MORNING? wow...I'm utterly amazed...

['CaneFreak]

Wow! Probability for TC formation is at 1 %...that is the highest it has been all year so far....LOL...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/genesis.html

[Rainband]

It will move NE if it does develop and not bother anyone

[Stormavoider]

Is this going to strip the energy from the convection off the Carolinas?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

[vacanechaser]

It will move NE if it does develop and not bother anyone

dont be so sure... it looks like to me the trough, or front maybe leaving it behind... looks like it is still moving south or even a bit southwest.... alex was forecast, before it became alex to move off to the northeast and not bother anyone then too...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Rainband]

Every system is different. I agree anything is possible.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I hope this won't disappoint us like the past several other waves we've seen. It would be funny if this became a TD because out of al the other waves in that we're in the Caribbean this NC, SC wave formed where the water isn't as warm.

[Recurve]

Deep convection bloomed then diminished, now a small area at the center of the overall convection is deepening again.

East coast "rainbow" sat loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-rb.html

Right now does not seem to be much steering it, just a slight southward drift to the small blob, with easterly flow drawing some fringes off the southern end toward Florida, but no real convection on the coast at this time.

Might not be much chance of development, but an area to keep an eye on perhaps.

[HurricaneHunter914]

As long as this is stationary over warm water it has a chance, but as soon as it starts to move Northward, then chances are pretty much 0%.

[Recurve]

Just saw too that there is discussion of models and convection off the East Coast in another thread:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=86877&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0

[CrazyC83]

Wow, a Recon? And it's not even an Invest??? They should declare 97L.INVEST soon...