NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE/GALE AREA, S of NS

[SouthFloridawx]

Just went over the 12Z GFS run and it is indicating a possible warm core system forming around the 18th apprx?

This is the first I have noticed of this.


GFS analyzes this as a warm core low.





GFS 850mb vorticity 48hours

[Rainband]

I noticed the Blob on Satellite earlier. Maybe it(the GFS) is on to something

[gatorcane]

yes perhaps it is, here is an animated GFS run showing this low moving up the east coast and out to sea:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[SouthFloridawx]

UKMET picking up on something also.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 12/57.html

NAM

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/nam ... 506/5.html

Also the Canadian

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 12/63.html

NOGAPS showing low level vorticity also.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

[Scorpion]

Wow! I think we may have something here.

[wxman57]

Wow! I think we may have something here.

Yes, we have a low forming on a cold front just off the Mid Atlantic Coast. It'll head out to sea. Doesn't look tropical, and since it's heading out the sea the NHC will probably ignore it.

[rjgator]

The Euro is trying to put a low off of the East Coast from Wed - Sat. It has been consistent at least showing a low somewhere off the east coast / Northern Caribean for the last few runs.

[SouthFloridawx]

Wow! I think we may have something here.

Yes, we have a low forming on a cold front just off the Mid Atlantic Coast. It'll head out to sea. Doesn't look tropical, and since it's heading out the sea the NHC will probably ignore it.

Are you talking about this?



Secondly The GFS doesn't have an area of low pressure forming until around the 17th or 18th.. not today.

12Z GFS 06 hour 850mb Vorticity.
You can see the low you are talking about
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=006hr

This low forms and moves out but, a new low is being depicted to form in the same general area as the first low formed as depicted in the vorticity run below.

If you look at this graphic you can see the date it which it is predicting the future low.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... urrent.png

Watch as the current low off the coast moves up and a new area forms.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation


Just wanted to clarify what I was watching on GFS.

[Thunder44]

I had heard Dr. Lyons talk about this in his last tropical update on TWC this morning. About an area high pressure aloft developing over that area of thunderstorms. But he also said it was a long shot for tropical or sub-tropical development.

[TampaFl]

NWS Miami talks about this area in their AFD this afternoon maybe affecting South FL. next week. THoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert


FXUS62 KMFL 151809
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
209 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 30N LATITUDE EXTENDING
WEST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...VERTICALLY STACKED ALL THE WAY UP TO
H25. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA CONTINUING TO
MOVE WEST AND IS EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY ALONG OUR LONGITUDE BY
SUNDAY EVENING. AN UPPER ATMOSPHERE TROUGH...TUTT...FROM THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND WESTERN CUBA INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH. LOOKING AT
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOPS...AN UPPER LOW SEEMS TO BE EMBEDDED IN
THE TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. COMPLICATING FACTORS IS A
DISORGANIZED SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS. MIAMI AND NASSAU RAWINSONDES
SHOW GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE BUT
STILL PRETTY DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ONLY 1.4-1.5 INCHES.

FOR NOW...ACCEPT THE GFS AND NAM TRENDS OF THE NORTHERN END OF THE
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE INCREASING OUR MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING US BACK TO AT LEAST NORMAL POPS ON
THE EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE LATEST GFS SEEMS
TO SHOW PIECES OF THE CAROLINAS SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
IN THE HIGH LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. HOW THE CAROLINAS SYSTEM, TROUGH,
UPPER LOWS, AND THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE EVOLVE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
OUR INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BE
SUPPRESSED SOUTH BY A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...LESSENING THE EAST FLOW AND TURNING IT MORE
SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD MEAN BEST CHANCES FOR THE METRO ATLANTIC
COAST WILL BE EARLY MORNINGS TO ABOUT NOON, INTERIOR AREAS LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, AND SOUTHWEST GULF COAST MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS ENHANCED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN SHOULD LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL GO A BIT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR THESE DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK
NORTH TOWARD 30N LATITUDE AND OUR EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DROP BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GFS SHOWS AN UPPER
ATMOSPHERE CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY THAT SLOWLY
DROPS SOUTH TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY EARLY NEXT SUNDAY.
THIS IS FAR OUT SO WILL NOT BITE ON IT JUST YET. WILL CONTINUE THE
CLIMATOLOGY TREND THROUGH THIS PERIOD FOR NOW.

&&
.MARINE...GOOD BOATING WEATHER ON BOTH COASTS WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW CONTINUING BELOW 15 KNOTS. ONLY PROBLEM MAY BE INCREASED
CONVECTION BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ONE MORE DAY OF MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AROUND 45 PERCENT INTERIOR AREAS BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES MONDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 90 77 90 / 10 20 20 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 89 79 89 / 10 20 20 50
MIAMI 80 90 79 90 / 10 20 20 50
NAPLES 73 91 74 91 / 10 20 20 50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

[Thunder44]

You can see the GFS develop a pretty healthy storm offshore in 102hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

[marcane_1973]

Sorry i dont see anything in the Atlantic that has a remote possibility to even turn into a depression at this time. All of this years storms will be in August and September. I think that a change in this years numbers in the near future should go down. I just dont see the amount of tropical storms and hurricanes they are calling for to develop in only a 2 month period basically because we only usually see a couple of hurricanes if any in the month of October and every now and then 1 storm in November. I dont watch the models till something actually looks decent enough and has the environment around the area it is in to intensify.

[marcane_1973]

Sorry i dont see anything in the Atlantic that has a remote possibility to even turn into a depression at this time. All of this years storms will be in August and September. I think that a change in this years numbers in the near future should go down. I just dont see the amount of tropical storms and hurricanes they are calling for to develop in only a 2 month period basically because we only usually see a couple of hurricanes if any in the month of October and every now and then 1 storm in November. I dont watch the models till something actually looks decent enough and has the environment around the area it is in to intensify.

And......... Mark Sudduth sums it up best "Dry air and high surface pressures dominate the scene and upper level winds are not all that favorable in most areas either". "I do not see any development taking place for at least the next five days- and probably longer".

[SouthFloridawx]

Sorry i dont see anything in the Atlantic that has a remote possibility to even turn into a depression at this time. All of this years storms will be in August and September. I think that a change in this years numbers in the near future should go down. I just dont see the amount of tropical storms and hurricanes they are calling for to develop in only a 2 month period basically because we only usually see a couple of hurricanes if any in the month of October and every now and then 1 storm in November. I dont watch the models till something actually looks decent enough and has the environment around the area it is in to intensify.

I didn't say there was anything out there right NOW that looks like it has a possibility of becoming a depression. Just mearly posting some interesting output from the GFS. I thought it was weird that that it was trying to spin up a Warm Core low so far North off the east coast this early in the season.

[NDG]

It will have a short period of time before it can do anything, before moving into cooler waters & upper level shear moves in. So I say no more than an extra-tropical low.

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS 18Z develops an area of low pressure on just before the 18th.

Updated Model run

Depicting a Warm Core System Transitioning to a Cold Core system.


NAM
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/nam ... phase1.png

Nogaps chiming in on this one also
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp ... 12/59.html

[Weatherfreak000]

I don't get it, the system off the EC is impressive. It deserves mention, so can someone tell me something about this?

[Jim Cantore]

If anything comes out of this I think it will be sub-tropical in nature, the direction it's heading just isnt warm enough to support a pure tropical system, then as I say that I think of Epsilon.

[NDG]

I don't get it, the system off the EC is impressive. It deserves mention, so can someone tell me something about this?

Its getting a strong NW shear aloft at this current time and looks like it will have to deal with 20-30 kts wind shear now & while it tracks to the NE from the current location.

[Weatherfreak000]

Well, as of right now it's only slightly drifting north if not stationary. In fact, satellite looks like it may even be slightly drifting South.



I think this looks great, it has persistent refiring strong convection. At the bare minimum it deserves at least a glance.