Interesting graphics from NHC

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timNms
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Interesting graphics from NHC

#1 Postby timNms » Fri Jul 14, 2006 11:25 pm

I found these graphics to be interesting. According to this, a Cat 4 storm with winds of 144 mph moving at 14 mph would produce 92 mph winds at my house....odd that this seems familiar.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/wi ... _144.shtml

That's about what we had during Katrina. Maybe someone with more knowledge that I can explain how a weak cat 2 can produce 85-90 mph sustained winds with gusts to 120-130 mph... 100 miles inland.

Before you get upset, not saying Kat was a 4 at MS landfall, just wondering how she was able to produce such winds at my house this far inland. Georges, a 2, I believe (105 mph???) only gave us 45-50 sustained winds (never lost power :) ). Of course, the eyewall didn't come anywhere near us, tho.
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Re: Interesting graphics from NHC

#2 Postby WxGuy1 » Sat Jul 15, 2006 12:00 am

timNms wrote: Of course, the eyewall didn't come anywhere near us, tho.


That's a HUGE point. In most storms, the highest winds are very tightly packed near the eyewall (i.e. there's usually a rather significantly gradient in winds beyond the eyewall). Katrina's windfield expanded rapidly right before landfall as it weakened a little. Regardless, your proximity to the eyewall is very important. A lot of people go through think that a "typical" Cat 3 that hits 60 miles away means that they experienced Cat 3 winds. Nope, very unlikely.

I assume that model is based on a standard rate of decay / weakening. As would be expected, the faster the storm is moving, the more distance it travels inland before it weakens a certain amount (e.g. from a Cat 4 to a Cat 1). I don't think that means that strong inland winds aren't possible, but perhaps not likely. Individual thunderstorms may have enhanced downdrafts that may lead to higher-than-expected winds (there are plenty of storm-scale flows involved).
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Re: Interesting graphics from NHC

#3 Postby timNms » Sat Jul 15, 2006 12:10 am

WxGuy1 wrote:
timNms wrote: Of course, the eyewall didn't come anywhere near us, tho.


That's a HUGE point. In most storms, the highest winds are very tightly packed near the eyewall (i.e. there's usually a rather significantly gradient in winds beyond the eyewall). Katrina's windfield expanded rapidly right before landfall as it weakened a little. Regardless, your proximity to the eyewall is very important. A lot of people go through think that a "typical" Cat 3 that hits 60 miles away means that they experienced Cat 3 winds. Nope, very unlikely.

I assume that model is based on a standard rate of decay / weakening. As would be expected, the faster the storm is moving, the more distance it travels inland before it weakens a certain amount (e.g. from a Cat 4 to a Cat 1). I don't think that means that strong inland winds aren't possible, but perhaps not likely. Individual thunderstorms may have enhanced downdrafts that may lead to higher-than-expected winds (there are plenty of storm-scale flows involved).


Thanks wxguy1.
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#4 Postby WindRunner » Sat Jul 15, 2006 8:18 am

The link if anyone wants to do it for another area or another storm strength:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/wi ... _areas.htm
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