Caribbean flare Up.....

[caneman]

Could this be the area CMC showed pushing into BOC earlier today within a few days. I think it bears watching.

[gatorcane]

Latest NHC TWD (8:05pm)

nope nothing to get concerned with:

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT.
A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
FROM 2N-15N BETWEEN 28W-35W.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG
57W/58W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W SOUTH OF
21N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. A QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN
THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM
18N-20N BETWEEN 70W-73W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 68W-74W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVE
AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN SEA. TYPICAL SURFACE TRADEWINDS ARE
NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.
STRONGEST VELOCITIES OF 20 KT ARE RECORDED BY BUOY 42058 N OF
COLOMBIA. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN GUATEMALA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 78W-83W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA
BETWEEN 76W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 14N89W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 83W-96W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FROM 13N-20N
BETWEEN 70W-80W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS S OF 13N. A HIGH IS E
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 10N57W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM
5N-15N BETWEEN 50W-65W. EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE W WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

This will probably cross over into the EPAC where it will have a better chance of development.

[caneman]

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN GUATEMALA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 78W-83W.

This is the area I'm talking about. And the area where it looked like CMC initiated it. We'll have to see more model run support though but interesting to watch for now.

[NDG]

GFS, NOGAPS & CMC show moisture & convection along with lower surface pressures moving into the NW Caribbean & BOC starting on Monday, I think it will be a combination between the two features, the southern section might move into the EPAC, but northern section most likely stay in the Caribbean. Upper level conditions might become marginal as well.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Kinda looks like it has some cyclonic turning, but it could be me. After looking at the SAT loop this will more likely move into the NW Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

GFS, NOGAPS & CMC show moisture & convection along with lower surface pressures moving into the NW Caribbean & BOC starting on Monday, I think it will be a combination between the two features, the southern section might move into the EPAC, but northern section most likely stay in the Caribbean. Upper level conditions might become marginal as well.

What makes you say anything ends up in the NW Caribbean from this?

[Extremeweatherguy]

GFS, NOGAPS & CMC show moisture & convection along with lower surface pressures moving into the NW Caribbean & BOC starting on Monday, I think it will be a combination between the two features, the southern section might move into the EPAC, but northern section most likely stay in the Caribbean. Upper level conditions might become marginal as well.

What makes you say anything ends up in the NW Caribbean from this?

he just said that the models are showing this.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yes I noticed this area of convection earlier this evening...
some fairly intense convection as of 10:17 PM EST...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF

This area looks like it will move into the EPAC
but watch the area of heavy convection coming off of
South America- that area even if it does not move into
the Caribbean from South America may send energy
that allows heavy convection to blow up over the
Caribbean tomorrow...let's wait and see.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

***I am an amateur...but here's my forecast and analysis anyways for areas of convection over the Southern and Central Caribbean:*** I am
seeing a decent possibility for heavy convection to develop over
the South Central Caribbean tomorrow or over the next several
days.

It looks like a large amount of energy and convection are moving into
the Southern and Central Caribbean...the convection in the Southwestern
Caribbean combined with the heavy convection from South America
combined with the remnant convection and energy left behind from
Ex-96L as 96L moves through the South Central Caribbean combined with
the energies of all three of these entities and bodies of convection and
moisture will combine to produce some heavy convection tomorrow
over the South Central Caribbean.
WATCH the South Central Caribbean for heavy convection tomorrow or during
the next several days. The moist MJO will slowly be moving in...
Also, even if the current area of convection just off the Central America coast
moves onto Central America and into the Eastern Pacific...there should
still be enough remnant energy to form additional heavy convection from
the areas and energies of convection over South America and remaining
from Ex-96L (some light convection over the South Central Caribbean)...
As for development...while shear is high there will not be any...but if
shear diminishes anywhere over the South/Central Caribbean over
the next few days, a pocket of heavy convection could develop into a tropical system. It is too early to tell if a tropical system will come out of
these areas of convection and corresponding energies, but I do think some
heavy convection is likely tomorrow or over the next several days due to convection over South America and Ex-96L convection and the current flare-up over the Southwest Caribbean and the energies of these systems combining.


***Of course...all the convection could die off and this post of mine
could be a type-written manifestation of me making a meteorological
fool of myself.***

[SouthFloridawx]

Shear tendency has the area you are talking about decreasing.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Although the GFS is depicting increasing shear in the area.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

But, as you said barring shear we could see something.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Hmm...yes GFS depicts some heavy shear over the Islands and the
South Eastern Caribbean. However, it also depicts a few pockets
of less shear over the South Western Caribbean. If any convection and energy reach those pockets of less shear...we may have something to watch.

Tropical development is not likely or imminent, but this area is an area of the Atlantic with probably the highest probability for potential tropical development. There is not much else out there, for now.

[caneman]

Nice flare up and seems to be moving NW. I still say this is the area to watch for now.

[tailgater]

Nice flare up and seems to be moving NW. I still say this is the area to watch for now.

Posted: Fri Jul 14, 2006 8:32 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN GUATEMALA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 78W-83W.

This is the area I'm talking about. And the area where it looked like CMC initiated it. We'll have to see more model run support though but interesting to watch for now.

Are you talking about the wave in the central Caribbean the Old 96L?

[HurricaneHunter914]

No, the old 96L is gone only the northern part of it which is near the bahamas is flaring up.

[tailgater]

No, the old 96L is gone only the northern part of it which is near the bahamas is flaring up.

The wave that produced 96L is now the Linear T-storms that stretch from N14/83W arcing to the NE towards the SE Bahamas.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/rb-l.jpg
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif
IMHO

[SouthFloridawx]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 151728
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST NEAR 15
KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS DEFINED THAN IT WAS OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG
62W/63W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS NOW
ENTERED A MORE MOIST UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND MIGHT BE AIDING
IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES. VERY LITTLE WAVE SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AHEAD TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
ALONG 79W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS
SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THAN THE ONES FURTHER EAST...HOWEVER
IT AS WELL IS NOT VERY WELL DEFINED. THE WAVE WAS ADJUSTED AHEAD
DUE TO A FEW BUOY/SHIPS OBSERVATIONS WHICH DISPLAYED SOME WIND
SHIFTS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 80W-83W. DISORGANIZED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTEND WELL BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS.
FOR MORE DISCUSSION ON THE CARIBBEAN WAVES REFER TO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA DISCUSSION.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looks like we will have something decent to watch in the tropics.

[tailgater]

Probably just T-storm related but check out winds direction.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

[Nimbus]

Tailgator that is a much better way to say look at the latest red blob! Seriously though lets hope this just dissipates tonight.