Ex-96L Invest,Comments

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

#261 Postby tailgater » Fri Jul 14, 2006 11:55 am

Brent wrote:Another invest goes poof. Surprise, surprise.


By Sunday Ole 96L will have our interest again.
0 likes   

HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#262 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri Jul 14, 2006 11:58 am

Even the NHC said this has gone poof, but in a nicer way.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#263 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 14, 2006 12:19 pm

It will be cool to have something to track, nevertheless, we are still in good shape, climatologically speaking.
0 likes   

User avatar
sponger
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1623
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:26 am
Location: St Augustine

#264 Postby sponger » Fri Jul 14, 2006 1:54 pm

Awfully quiet out there! I wonder if August is going to light it up?
0 likes   

HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#265 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri Jul 14, 2006 1:56 pm

With the Wet MJO coming in August is going to light up like a Christmas Tree and that Christmas Tree is going to attract alot of presesnts (members of S2K).
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6667
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

#266 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Jul 14, 2006 2:55 pm

For the first time I read in the NHC's TWO for the Atlantic this:

"THE TROPICS ARE QUIET AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION.
"
0 likes   

User avatar
Grease Monkey
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 727
Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2006 9:25 pm

#267 Postby Grease Monkey » Fri Jul 14, 2006 2:57 pm

Cyclenall wrote:For the first time I read in the NHC's TWO for the Atlantic this:

"THE TROPICS ARE QUIET AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION.
"


Doesn't this mean that it gives the atlantic a more favorable chance to warm up by the time august rolls around?
0 likes   

User avatar
Epsilon_Fan
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 353
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2006 1:03 pm
Location: Charleston, SC

#268 Postby Epsilon_Fan » Fri Jul 14, 2006 3:16 pm

the wave in the S. Caribbean seems to be getting some convection... not like it will raise this thing from the dead but noteworthy
0 likes   

User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6667
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

#269 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Jul 14, 2006 3:17 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:For the first time I read in the NHC's TWO for the Atlantic this:

"THE TROPICS ARE QUIET AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION.
"


Doesn't this mean that it gives the atlantic a more favorable chance to warm up by the time august rolls around?

Yes it does. I'm not going wild over the quiet tropics right now.
0 likes   

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:

#270 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jul 14, 2006 3:50 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
Grease Monkey wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:For the first time I read in the NHC's TWO for the Atlantic this:

"THE TROPICS ARE QUIET AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION.
"


Doesn't this mean that it gives the atlantic a more favorable chance to warm up by the time august rolls around?

Yes it does. I'm not going wild over the quiet tropics right now.


Not necessarily. The waters won't warm up significantly due to the lack of storminess. (Tropical cyclones, on average, hardly affect SSTs unless several track over the same area and/or slow-movement creates upwelling. Regardless, the effects on the basin as a whole are small.)

Furthermore, without a kicker (i.e. a tropical disturbance) and favorable oceanographic and atmospheric conditions (to include, but not limited to, low shear, moisture throughout the column of air, choppy waters [which create more surface area to draw from and adds moisture to the air from the spray], warm waters at depth, and proper upper-tropospheric ventilation), nothing will form... regardless of the SSTs.
0 likes   

User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

#271 Postby tailgater » Sat Jul 15, 2006 8:46 am

tailgater wrote:
Brent wrote:Another invest goes poof. Surprise, surprise.


By Sunday Ole 96L will have our interest again.

Bump
Current flare up, is taking place while it's going through a pocket of dry air.
0 likes   

Dustin
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 140
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2006 12:12 pm
Contact:

#272 Postby Dustin » Sat Jul 15, 2006 9:00 am

I don't know if anyone else noticed this but there is a nice flare up near the Yucatan in the Carib sea.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1606
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:43 pm
Location: Keene, NH
Contact:

#273 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sat Jul 15, 2006 9:00 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:With the Wet MJO coming in August is going to light up like a Christmas Tree and that Christmas Tree is going to attract alot of presesnts (members of S2K).


remember that it doesnt matter what phase the MJO is in if there is 40kts of shear roaring across the Atlantic
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#274 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 15, 2006 9:35 am

wxwatcher91 wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:With the Wet MJO coming in August is going to light up like a Christmas Tree and that Christmas Tree is going to attract alot of presesnts (members of S2K).


remember that it doesnt matter what phase the MJO is in if there is 40kts of shear roaring across the Atlantic


everything is normal so far here in July. That shear should relax in August.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: LarryWx and 40 guests