Possible third system for the Eastern Pacific?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #1 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:18 pm

Possible 3rd eastern Pacific system? At 8-10 north/88 west just off the coast of central America.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 18_m.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 42_m.shtml

This shows it become more organized...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 66_m.shtml

We will see if we can get another!

Cyclenall · #2 Postby **Cyclenall** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:26 pm

I have been watching this blob or wave for the past few days while tracking everything else that has been going on. I want this to become another system so that I don't get bored of the tropics/out of tune. I want to get warmed up before the Atlantic roars with TC's!

I heard someone say that this could be Danial next on Tropical Round Table (IPR).

HurricaneHunter914 · #3 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 12:43 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg\

HOLY #@$%! :eek:

HouTXmetro · #4 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 12:49 pm

EPAC kicking butt

#5 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 12:49 pm

everything is in the EPAC and nothing is in the Atlantic...

#6 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 1:04 pm

gatorcane wrote:everything is in the EPAC and nothing is in the Atlantic...

HouTXmetro wrote:EPAC kicking butt

Typical beginning for the season. The Atlantic will fight back, don't worry.

HurricaneHunter914 · #7 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 1:08 pm

I think its because the EPAC right now is beginning its active period right?

Cyclenall · #8 Postby **Cyclenall** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 1:31 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg\

HOLY #@$%!

That's a lot of blobs and convection. The NHC is not talking about them though. I wonder what the models have to say about it.

Cyclenall · #9 Postby **Cyclenall** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 5:57 pm

Cyclenall wrote:I wonder what the models have to say about it.

Ok, I just checked the models and there are more then 3 of them hinting at another Tropical Cyclone in the EPAC soon. I think one of them showed 2 new ones within 144 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W N OF 2N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE DOES
NOT HAVE AN APPARENT CIRCULATION BUT IS INCREASING THE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ OVER PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION N OF 4N BETWEEN
77W-87W.

Link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2144.shtml?

This is might be one of the areas I'm watching. The NHC doesn't state anything new in their TWO.

clfenwi · #10 Postby **clfenwi** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 11:46 pm

04Z TWD

TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED ALONG 93W N OF 3N MOVING W 15
KT. A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP S OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND THE RESULTING CONVERGENCE IS
PRODUCING NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ EWD
TO COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW PRES
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS WAVE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HRS.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The 00Z GFS is continuing to sell this... and as the Carlotta discussion mentioned, the GFDL and ECMWF have been selling this as well.

HurricaneHunter914 · #11 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 11:51 pm

Looks like we'll have to watch another TC soon. If this does become a TC I beleive this will have the greatest chance of becoming a Cat-5 since it will be tracking through alot of 85+ waters.

Cyclenall · #12 Postby **Cyclenall** » Fri Jul 14, 2006 12:02 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Looks like we'll have to watch another TC soon. If this does become a TC I beleive this will have the greatest chance of becoming a Cat-5 since it will be tracking through alot of 85+ waters.

I also want this system to move slowly west it's whole life so it can spend more time over the warmest waters. A category 5 hurricane would make me think the EPAC isn't going to be slow season at all.

HurricaneJoe22 · #13 Postby **HurricaneJoe22** » Sat Jul 15, 2006 3:25 am

looks as if something is beginning to form around 10N/100W....I predict a TD by 5 p.m. Saturday

clfenwi · #14 Postby **clfenwi** » Sat Jul 15, 2006 5:04 pm

22Z TWD

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101.5W N OF 3N IS MOVING W 12 KT WITH LOW
PRES ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT 11N 1009 MB. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT LOW PRES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS. CURRENTLY
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW PRES BUT STILL WITH THE ITCZ.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

High Seas forecast 2230Z

LOW PRES 11N101.5W 1009 MB MOVING W 12 KT. WITHIN 180 NM OF LOW
WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES 11N106W 1008 MB. LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES 12N111W 1006 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE AND 360 NM SE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 8 TO
10 FT.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Also worth of note... the 12Z NOGAPS has joined in the fun:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp ... 12/32.html

#15 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 15, 2006 5:54 pm

ABPZ20 KNHC 152243
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CARLOTTA...LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON THE
REMNANTS OF BUD...LOCATED ABOUT 1355 MILES EAST OF HILO HAWAII.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

bombarderoazul · #16 Postby **bombarderoazul** » Sat Jul 15, 2006 8:03 pm

This could be our next invest.

Cyclenall · #17 Postby **Cyclenall** » Sat Jul 15, 2006 10:54 pm

I really do think this will be the next depression. It's just so likely that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime. I peg development at 87% (I'm very sure on this one). 3-5 models are also picking up on this system. GFS is all over it too.

It should be a invest right now. From the latest NHC TWD:

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102.5W N OF 3N IS MOVING W 12 KT WITH LOW
PRES ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT 12N 1009 MB. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT LOW PRES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS. CURRENTLY
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRES WITH BANDING FEATURES
OBSERVED THE PAST FEW HOURS. BANDING MAY ALSO BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE.

HurricaneJoe22 · #18 Postby **HurricaneJoe22** » Sat Jul 15, 2006 10:55 pm

OK, so no TD yet, but it continues to develop and likely will be our next tropical cyclone....new prediction for TD is 5 p.m. Sunday

HurricaneHunter914 · #19 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Jul 15, 2006 11:26 pm

Sunday is our best bet and the faster this forms the more time it has over 85+ degree waters.

Possible third system for the Eastern Pacific?

Possible third system for the Eastern Pacific?

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