Think its a First...GFS Depicts Closed low......

[Dean4Storms]

The GFS is depicting a closed low forming off the African Coast in about 5 days.

Is that not a first for this year? 18z......


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[SouthFloridawx]

The GFS is depicting a closed low forming off the African Coast in about 5 days.

Is that not a first for this year? 18z......


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

I was watching that too Dean.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_132l.gif

[Dean4Storms]

I also noticed the overall drop in pressures throughout the Carib. and a relaxation in the Atlantic Ridge. Not a Good Sign if it comes to fruition.

[cycloneye]

That may be the area at Central Africa that I pointed out at the Parade is Starting? thread.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wahoo...But I better save that intill something finally forms.

[SouthFloridawx]

That may be the area at Central Africa that I pointed out at the Parade is Starting? thread.

I also noticed the overall drop in pressures throughout the Carib. and a relaxation in the Atlantic Ridge. Not a Good Sign if it comes to fruition.

Yep and yep....
00 Hour ... 18Z


144 Hours

[Tampa_God]

Finally something to watch

[HURAKAN]

How bad is the Saharan air intrusion in the area as we speak?

[george_r_1961]

I wonder if its simply a thermal low..climatology doesnt really favor development out there now...but we all remember that 2005 broke a lot of rules

[curtadams]

I've seen several African coast closed lows from the GFS. None actually happened and most had been predicted to evaporate anyway.

[WxGuy1]

Finally something to watch

You can guess my confidence in a 144hr GFS forecast... We can't get tropical cyclone genesis right a lot of the time when we have many models showing a similar solution for several runs in a row. Not saying it won't happen, but I think we have to wait for several more runs before giving it a second thought.

[Aquawind]

That 18z looked like things to come alright but it's not on the 00Z or the other models. It's mid July so not to long before it becomes reality.

[SouthFloridawx]

The 06Z Did
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_138l.gif

[Dean4Storms]

Still it is a sign to me that changes are on the way from what we've seen up to this point. That and the fact that we are now getting into late July.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I wonder if its simply a thermal low..climatology doesnt really favor development out there now...but we all remember that 2005 broke a lot of rules

Remember that B storm though that formed in said area in 1996, a week or so earlier to boot, thus you never know

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

You don't think this is what the GFS is talking about this wave?

[BayouVenteux]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

You don't think this is what the GFS is talking about this wave?

Not sure if the GFS is talking about it, but Dr. Masters at WxUnderground is...http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=414&tstamp=200607

[SouthFloridawx]

18Z GFS but, not the wave that people are currently talking about in that Atlantic Wave thread... This is a "Future Low" depicted forming around the 17th-18th.

[Dustin]

Hmm those SST's look to be at a decent temp level