Camille not a cat-5 at Mississippi landfall???

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#261 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:00 pm

Pearl River wrote:Definition of Category 5 from the NHC site:

Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Only 3 Category Five Hurricanes have made landfall in the United States since records began: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricane Camille (1969), and Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys with a minimum pressure of 892 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States. Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast causing a 25-foot storm surge, which inundated Pass Christian. Hurricane Andrew of 1992 made landfall over southern Miami-Dade County, Florida causing 26.5 billion dollars in losses--the costliest hurricane on record.


It does not state there is total building devestation. We also don't know the exact area where that house was located, along with the landscape.


It also says all trees blown down by the wind, but that picture does not have all trees down.
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#262 Postby timNms » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:00 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
timNms wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:Wow... apparently every Camille thread ends up like this. LOL :lol:

My take - Camille could not conceivably had winds of 190 mph; even though I am sitting thousands of miles away several decades in the future looking at old pics of damage, I am pretty sure that 190 mph are too high. I mean, I've seen pics of standing buildings next to the water.

The pressure-wind relationship is completely useless in this case. 1969 was a hyperactive year, and in fact, most storms that year moved northward and recurved very quickly after genesis. This implies lower than normal atmospheric pressures during that year.

Even if the Loop Current runs all the way to the coast, the depth of the warm water is severely dimished; you can't changed to topography of the ocean floor; and the ocean floor is shallow in the MGC. Even a slight change in the Heat Content of the water is crucial for hurricane strength.

I'm not saying Camille was not a Cat 5. I'm just quite doubtful of it. However, if the Loop Current runs all the way to the shore, it can still support probably an upper-end Cat 4 (IMO). That's probably how Camille fared.


Your opinion does not reflect what history states. OFFICIAL reports say she had 190 mph winds at one time, not too long before landfall. From what I have read, she was rapidly strengthening as she approached landfall, unlike many of the recent storms which were in a weakening phase. Until official reports state otherwise, Camille WAS a catagory 5 at landfall on the MS gulf coast.

I still find it amusing to read posts that say the NGM cannot support a cat 5 hurricane. Where is this written in stone? In my 44 years of living I have learned one important lesson and that is to NEVER say NEVER! :)


Camille only had 160mph winds at landfall according to the report. The gusts were 190mph.


I am aware of that. I said 190mph at one time.
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#263 Postby timNms » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:01 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Pearl River wrote:Definition of Category 5 from the NHC site:

Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Only 3 Category Five Hurricanes have made landfall in the United States since records began: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricane Camille (1969), and Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys with a minimum pressure of 892 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States. Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast causing a 25-foot storm surge, which inundated Pass Christian. Hurricane Andrew of 1992 made landfall over southern Miami-Dade County, Florida causing 26.5 billion dollars in losses--the costliest hurricane on record.


It does not state there is total building devestation. We also don't know the exact area where that house was located, along with the landscape.


It also says all trees blown down by the wind, but that picture does not have all trees down.



Ok, I'll bite. Were all trees and shrubs blown down when cat 5 andrew slammed south florida????
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#264 Postby Pearl River » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:02 pm

wxman_91 wrote

Well you do have a point there. Nevertheless, this is not a formal scientific debate, so we can express our opinions here.


Let me see how I can put this politely. Opinion's are like rear ends, everyone has one and it stink's.

Let me ask this, are you a structural engineer, that you can look at a picture and tell a hurricanes windspeed based on the amount of or lack of damage?
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#265 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:02 pm

timNms wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Pearl River wrote:Definition of Category 5 from the NHC site:

Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Only 3 Category Five Hurricanes have made landfall in the United States since records began: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricane Camille (1969), and Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys with a minimum pressure of 892 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States. Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast causing a 25-foot storm surge, which inundated Pass Christian. Hurricane Andrew of 1992 made landfall over southern Miami-Dade County, Florida causing 26.5 billion dollars in losses--the costliest hurricane on record.


It does not state there is total building devestation. We also don't know the exact area where that house was located, along with the landscape.


It also says all trees blown down by the wind, but that picture does not have all trees down.



Ok, I'll bite. Were all trees and shrubs blown down when cat 5 andrew slammed south florida????
In the areas where Cat. 4/5 sustained winds actually occurred (which were very isolated pockets)...yes.

And here is a picture to prove this:

Image
The only things standing are a few completely stripped trees in the far back left corner. Most of these are not even the complete height of the tree (meaning the tree snapped). Certainly greater wind damage than what I have seen from Camille.

BTW, here are a few other examples of worse wind damage (no surge involved):

http://www.mthurricane.com/andrew10.jpg
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/1992andrew4.gif
http://www.collierem.org/AHG05_SP/FL%20 ... age002.jpg
^^May be one or two standing trees out of these three pictures combined.^^
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:15 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#266 Postby Opal storm » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:07 pm

I still think interaction with land over SE LA should have caused Camille to weaken before landfall.Remember cat 5 hurricanes must have perfect conditions to maintain that strength.Considering much of Camille's western half was over SE LA before landfall in MS, and it encountered shallower water and possibly cooler SST's off the coast,that's not favorable for any cat 5.

Looking at this track Camille's eye came pretty close to making landfall in extreme SE LA before hitting MS.
Image
Last edited by Opal storm on Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#267 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:07 pm

The tree issue may need to be looked at a bit more. I've used this report a few times and will continue to as I feel it has some validity when some try and compare wind and tree damage to equate category damage...

http://www.greenlaws.lsu.edu/urbanforests.htm

We know from studies of storms like Camille 1969, Hugo 1989 and Andrew 1992 that the trees that come down during storms are always the weakest and most mis-shaped trees in the area. They are often non-native trees unsuited by nature to our exposed coastal landscape. Trees that are often snapped, broken or overturned are often found to be diseased, hollow and rotten in the core, old and in decline and severely imbalanced.
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#268 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:08 pm

Pearl River wrote:Let me ask this, are you a structural engineer, that you can look at a picture and tell a hurricanes windspeed based on the amount of or lack of damage?


No. But I can sure estimate it based on descriptions from the SS Scale. And besides, aside from that biased opinion I have, I also provided other reasons, facts, why Camille may not have been 190 mph (report says 160 but many history books say 190 for some reason). I think those would make sense. Even Derek Ortt, a pro met, says that the TCHP in the NGOM does not support anything above a Cat 3. I'm taking this a step further and saying that based on my opinion and my thinking interpreting those images of Camille's destruction, that Cat 5 is overboard. Camille was probably a special case, and I agree, it was strengthening - but only as it hit the shelf. Then it weakened, gradually. I still think it was an upper end 4 at landfall.
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#269 Postby timNms » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:09 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
timNms wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Pearl River wrote:Definition of Category 5 from the NHC site:

Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Only 3 Category Five Hurricanes have made landfall in the United States since records began: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricane Camille (1969), and Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys with a minimum pressure of 892 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States. Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast causing a 25-foot storm surge, which inundated Pass Christian. Hurricane Andrew of 1992 made landfall over southern Miami-Dade County, Florida causing 26.5 billion dollars in losses--the costliest hurricane on record.


It does not state there is total building devestation. We also don't know the exact area where that house was located, along with the landscape.


It also says all trees blown down by the wind, but that picture does not have all trees down.



Ok, I'll bite. Were all trees and shrubs blown down when cat 5 andrew slammed south florida????
In the areas where Cat. 4/5 sustained winds actually occurred (which were very isolated pockets)...yes.

And here is a picture to prove this:

Image
The only things standing are a few completely stripped trees in the far back left corner. Most of these are not even the complete height of the tree (meaning the tree snapped). Certainly greater wind damage than what I have seen from Camille.


Yet they stand? But I thought the scale said all trees and shrubs would be BLOWN DOWN.
Now, do you have pictures of the area in which Camille's cat 5 winds passed over? Again, someone brought up the fact that it was quite possible that the area in which the cat 5 winds were was covered by the 20+ foot storm surge.
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#270 Postby timNms » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:11 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
Pearl River wrote:Let me ask this, are you a structural engineer, that you can look at a picture and tell a hurricanes windspeed based on the amount of or lack of damage?


No. But I can sure estimate it based on descriptions from the SS Scale. And besides, aside from that biased opinion I have, I also provided other reasons, facts, why Camille may not have been 190 mph (report says 160 but many history books say 190 for some reason). I think those would make sense. Even Derek Ortt, a pro met, says that the TCHP in the NGOM does not support anything above a Cat 3. I'm taking this a step further and saying that based on my opinion and my thinking interpreting those images of Camille's destruction, that Cat 5 is overboard. Camille was probably a special case, and I agree, it was strengthening - but only as it hit the shelf. Then it weakened, gradually. I still think it was an upper end 4 at landfall.


No disrespect intended toward mr ortt, but how long has he been a meteorlogist? And what area did he specialize in?
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#271 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:13 pm

timNms wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
timNms wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Pearl River wrote:Definition of Category 5 from the NHC site:

Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Only 3 Category Five Hurricanes have made landfall in the United States since records began: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricane Camille (1969), and Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys with a minimum pressure of 892 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States. Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast causing a 25-foot storm surge, which inundated Pass Christian. Hurricane Andrew of 1992 made landfall over southern Miami-Dade County, Florida causing 26.5 billion dollars in losses--the costliest hurricane on record.


It does not state there is total building devestation. We also don't know the exact area where that house was located, along with the landscape.


It also says all trees blown down by the wind, but that picture does not have all trees down.



Ok, I'll bite. Were all trees and shrubs blown down when cat 5 andrew slammed south florida????
In the areas where Cat. 4/5 sustained winds actually occurred (which were very isolated pockets)...yes.

And here is a picture to prove this:

Image
The only things standing are a few completely stripped trees in the far back left corner. Most of these are not even the complete height of the tree (meaning the tree snapped). Certainly greater wind damage than what I have seen from Camille.


Yet they stand? But I thought the scale said all trees and shrubs would be BLOWN DOWN.
Now, do you have pictures of the area in which Camille's cat 5 winds passed over? Again, someone brought up the fact that it was quite possible that the area in which the cat 5 winds were was covered by the 20+ foot storm surge.
If you call those 6 "twigs" in the background full-blown standing trees; then your mistaken. They are merely the "left-overs" of what once was a tree. There are not even any branches left.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#272 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:13 pm

timNms wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:
Pearl River wrote:Let me ask this, are you a structural engineer, that you can look at a picture and tell a hurricanes windspeed based on the amount of or lack of damage?


No. But I can sure estimate it based on descriptions from the SS Scale. And besides, aside from that biased opinion I have, I also provided other reasons, facts, why Camille may not have been 190 mph (report says 160 but many history books say 190 for some reason). I think those would make sense. Even Derek Ortt, a pro met, says that the TCHP in the NGOM does not support anything above a Cat 3. I'm taking this a step further and saying that based on my opinion and my thinking interpreting those images of Camille's destruction, that Cat 5 is overboard. Camille was probably a special case, and I agree, it was strengthening - but only as it hit the shelf. Then it weakened, gradually. I still think it was an upper end 4 at landfall.


No disrespect intended toward mr ortt, but how long has he been a meteorlogist? And what area did he specialize in?


He specializes in tropical meterology. Of course, IMO, he underplays some of the historical canes a bit, but the general idea is right.
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#273 Postby timNms » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:15 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
timNms wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
timNms wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Pearl River wrote:Definition of Category 5 from the NHC site:

Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Only 3 Category Five Hurricanes have made landfall in the United States since records began: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricane Camille (1969), and Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys with a minimum pressure of 892 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States. Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast causing a 25-foot storm surge, which inundated Pass Christian. Hurricane Andrew of 1992 made landfall over southern Miami-Dade County, Florida causing 26.5 billion dollars in losses--the costliest hurricane on record.


It does not state there is total building devestation. We also don't know the exact area where that house was located, along with the landscape.


It also says all trees blown down by the wind, but that picture does not have all trees down.



Ok, I'll bite. Were all trees and shrubs blown down when cat 5 andrew slammed south florida????
In the areas where Cat. 4/5 sustained winds actually occurred (which were very isolated pockets)...yes.

And here is a picture to prove this:

Image
The only things standing are a few completely stripped trees in the far back left corner. Most of these are not even the complete height of the tree (meaning the tree snapped). Certainly greater wind damage than what I have seen from Camille.


Yet they stand? But I thought the scale said all trees and shrubs would be BLOWN DOWN.
Now, do you have pictures of the area in which Camille's cat 5 winds passed over? Again, someone brought up the fact that it was quite possible that the area in which the cat 5 winds were was covered by the 20+ foot storm surge.
If you call those 6 "twigs" in the background full-blown standing trees than your mistaken. They are merely the "left-overs" of what once was a tree. There are not even any branches left.


Had some like that around here after Katrina. And we know she was not a cat 5. The point I am trying to get across is that pictures, while good at giving one an idea of the damage, prove nothing.
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#274 Postby Opal storm » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:17 pm

I don't think Camille's surge would've covered up the catestrophic wind damage,the cat 5/4 winds probably would've went a little further inland than the surge.Isn't Homestead like 10 or 15 miles inland?Look what happened there.
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#275 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:19 pm

Okay... just to keep things both "On Topic" and a bit interesting, I'm going to include some data I've gleaned from an "official" report of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (aka NOAA), with as signatories:
Malcolm Baldridge: Sec'y, US Dept. of Commerce
Anthony J. Calio: Under Sec'y N.O.A.A.
Richard E. Halgren: Acting Assistant Administrator--National Weather Service.

Dated April of 1987, making it roughly 5 years prior to Andrew... but a good review of ALL Atlantic and Gulf Storms dating back to 1900.

In one part of the report you find this statement, which I feel fairly well sums up all the banter about measured pressures.

......"Questions have been raised about the minimum central pressure of Hurricane Camille which struck the northern Gulf coast in 1969. The best obtainable value is needed because Camille had the lowest central pressure on the mainland coast since record keeping began during the later part of the last century, and strongly influences the lower end of the probability distribution of central pressure. A minimum pressure of 905 mb was measured by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft at 0016 GMT on August 17, 1969 near 25.20N, 87.2°W, or 250 mi southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Eighteen hours later, and only a few hours before the center made landfall, another reconnaissance aircraft penetrated the hurricane, and reported an even lower central pressure of 901 mb. A post-audit of the dropsonde computation at the National Climatic Center adjusted this to 908 mb. This value, which is quoted by Bradbury (1971), is the value in Table 1. The eye passed over Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, at landfall and an aneroid barometer a few blocks from the west end of the Bay St. Louis-Pass Christian bridge read 26.85 in. (909.4 mb). This barometer was later checked and found to be accurate by the New Orleans NWS Office (DeAngelis and Nelson 1969). One may assume then that Camille remained in a near steady state during its last 25 hours at sea."

Now I'm not going to go over the much beaten dead-horse of "pressure doesn't mean windspeeds"... as I've seen that more times than reruns of It's a Wonderful Life.

The point being, this storm, herein even upon RE-ANALYSIS of much of the data... has shown that storms CAN and HAVE maintained extreme intensity into the Northern Gulf... and, indeed, the lowest mainland pressure ever recorded by such a storm stands testimony to it. If anything, Camille got "stronger" from when she was 250 miles SE of the mouth of the Mississippi, all the way until landfall.

Just something to consider... if I find more in perusing this HUGE document, I'll be sure to post it.

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#276 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:21 pm

I don't think Camille's surge would've covered up the catestrophic wind damage,the cat 5/4 winds probably would've went a little further inland than the surge.Isn't Homestead like 10 or 15 miles inland?Look what happened there.


From the Google Map I've checked it appears to be 10 miles inland... the only problem with this analogy is 10-15 miles inland from Bay St. Louis all you'd have found is forest....big difference in the development areas around where both storms landed.

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#277 Postby Pearl River » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:33 pm

wxman_91 wrote

Pearl River wrote:
Let me ask this, are you a structural engineer, that you can look at a picture and tell a hurricanes windspeed based on the amount of or lack of damage?


No. But I can sure estimate it based on descriptions from the SS Scale. And besides, aside from that biased opinion I have, I also provided other reasons, facts, why Camille may not have been 190 mph (report says 160 but many history books say 190 for some reason). I think those would make sense. Even Derek Ortt, a pro met, says that the TCHP in the NGOM does not support anything above a Cat 3. I'm taking this a step further and saying that based on my opinion and my thinking interpreting those images of Camille's destruction, that Cat 5 is overboard. Camille was probably a special case, and I agree, it was strengthening - but only as it hit the shelf. Then it weakened, gradually. I still think it was an upper end 4 at landfall.


First of all, there is no proof whatsoever of the NGOM unable to support anything above a cat3. If you are talking about a study Derek did for a 10year period, that is not even close to being conclusive.

Second, since his study says no higher than cat 3, then how can you base your opinion that she was a cat 4.

Third, even most pro-mets will tell you that there is no way of knowing for certain that so called surge damage may actually have been wind damage prior to the surge. I have had several people tell me that they witnessed fishing camps on the northshore of Lake Pontchartrain go down due to wind in Katrina before the surge entered into Slidell. Yet, when viewed in a picture it would appear to have been caused by the surge.

Extreme, don't go there with pictures. I have seen several of your boy Charley's picture's in the line of cat 4 winds of tree's still standing. I have seen the extended video you show of the gas station canopy blown away in Charley, it pans to the right and lo and behold, there is a building fully intact.

Did you ever think that maybe the SS scale could be wrong after all these years about trees and shrubs? Maybe, just maybe some trees and shrubs could remain standing.
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#278 Postby Pearl River » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:37 pm

wxman_91 wrote

Pearl River wrote:
Let me ask this, are you a structural engineer, that you can look at a picture and tell a hurricanes windspeed based on the amount of or lack of damage?


No. But I can sure estimate it based on descriptions from the SS Scale. And besides, aside from that biased opinion I have, I also provided other reasons, facts, why Camille may not have been 190 mph (report says 160 but many history books say 190 for some reason). I think those would make sense. Even Derek Ortt, a pro met, says that the TCHP in the NGOM does not support anything above a Cat 3. I'm taking this a step further and saying that based on my opinion and my thinking interpreting those images of Camille's destruction, that Cat 5 is overboard. Camille was probably a special case, and I agree, it was strengthening - but only as it hit the shelf. Then it weakened, gradually. I still think it was an upper end 4 at landfall.


First of all, there is no proof whatsoever of the NGOM unable to support anything above a cat3. If you are talking about a study Derek did for a 10year period, that is not even close to being conclusive.

Second, since his study says no higher than cat 3, then how can you base your opinion that she was a cat 4.

Third, even most pro-mets will tell you that there is no way of knowing for certain that so called surge damage may actually have been wind damage prior to the surge. I have had several people tell me that they witnessed fishing camps on the northshore of Lake Pontchartrain go down due to wind in Katrina before the surge entered into Slidell. Yet, when viewed in a picture it would appear to have been caused by the surge.

Extreme, don't go there with pictures. I have seen several of your boy Charley's picture's in the line of cat 4 winds of tree's still standing. I have seen the extended video you show of the gas station canopy blown away in Charley, it pans to the right and lo and behold, there is a building fully intact.

Did you ever think that maybe the SS scale could be wrong after all these years about trees and shrubs? Maybe, just maybe some trees and shrubs could remain standing.
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#279 Postby HollynLA » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:44 pm

And here is a picture to prove this:


The only things standing are a few completely stripped trees in the far back left corner. Most of these are not even the complete height of the tree (meaning the tree snapped). Certainly greater wind damage than what I have seen from Camille.

BTW, here are a few other examples of worse wind damage (no surge involved):


Something I think is important to point out here, that picture was taken in a subdivision (yes, it's obvious) where there are very few trees, mostly short shrubs and such when houses are built very close together. Also, if it was from a newer sub., most trees were very young. The pic from Camille shows trees that were probably over 100 years old.
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Audrey2Katrina
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#280 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:45 pm

Even Derek Ortt, a pro met, says that the TCHP in the NGOM does not support anything above a Cat 3.


Ummm, with all due respect to the estimable Mr. Ortt.. since when has this become some newly adapted "law" of meteorology? Last I heard, Audrey was a 4, at landfall, and even the 1987 re-analysis of most of the data involving Camille said she remained steady for the last 24-36 hours which would have decidedly made her a Cat 5 at landfall. All this "so and so says nothing above a Cat 3 can make landfall in the NGOM" is accomplishing anything, and hardly constitutes proof. I could just as well say that Dr. Steve Lyons, who has just a tad of a reputation, is convinced that Katrina was probably a 4 at first landfall at Buras... and I know of many other "pro-mets" who've been in the field for many years equally convinced of that, as well as the "official" Cat 5 status of Camille. I respect anyone's right to a different opinion; but that doesn't by any stretch of the imagination make it irrefutable proof of their held views, especially in the light that, if anything, it represents a minority opinion.

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