The parade has started

[cycloneye]

It looks like things are marching inside Africa with some impulses.I am watching the one in the middle of the continent.



Full Disk

I posted the observations from Niger in Central Africa and it's interesting to see the pressures there went down to 1008 mbs.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/DRRN.html

[jasons2k]

I have to agree. I've been looking at satellite today and it looks like the Pacific is cranking and the Atlantic will begin soon. I think the band is warming up.

[Cyclenall]

That's pretty active in Africa. There are indeed a few of them that could do something later on.

[george_r_1961]

And we are gonna watch these waves go poof as soon as they hit the water. Agreed things are becoming more active but development out there is rare in July..and yes I say this on the 10th anniversary of Big Bertha..a CV storm..hitting NC

[WindRunner]

That's definately 3 high-quality bursts there, with plenty more potential behind them. I would expect these to survive the transition to water, and I'll be waiting to see how they do.

[canegrl04]

Looks like August will be the month of the Africa train I bet we see 3 or 4 hurricanes during August

[Dean4Storms]

These Waves will be timed about at the same time as the MJO arives and as overall pressures usually drop in the Carib., could be a very active late July and Aug.

[cycloneye]

These Waves will be timed about at the same time as the MJO arives and as overall pressures usually drop in the Carib., could be a very active late July and Aug.

You are right about the wet phase of MJO arriving in the Atlantic in time for the start of the peak of the season or maybe a tad earlier by late July.

[Tampa_God]

Any let up of the dust coming off Africa?

[baygirl_1]

Yeah... I saw this right after we booked a condo at the Gulf for a long weekend in late July. With our lousy luck things will pick up right about then!
Oh.. as for the SAL, here's the latest picture. I'm really not sure if this will have much effect. I'll leave that to the experts.
This is my first time adding a picture, so if it doesn't show up, here's the link: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/sal.html
(I hope I did this right... if not, please feel free to delete this or fix it. Thanks!)

[T'Bonz]

We've had a lot of waves come off since the beginning of June, but like last year, they start to get destroyed about halfway across.

[ConvergenceZone]

We've had a lot of waves come off since the beginning of June, but like last year, they start to get destroyed about halfway across.

true, but now we are going into late July, so that's a huge difference.

[HurricaneHunter914]

And with the wet MJO coming in that will only help those waves develop.

[Derek Ortt]

SAL and dry air is still as strong as it has been all season

http://www.nwhhc.com/SAL/0712.html

[x-y-no]

SAL and dry air is still as strong as it has been all season

http://www.nwhhc.com/SAL/0712.html

Yes but (and feel free to correct me if I'm wrong here) it's my impression that when one gets a series of strong waves in quick succession as appears to be coming soon, the lead one or two can act as sacrifices to provide a better environment for one coming behind.

[cheezyWXguy]

If the wave that became 96L came about a week earlier and 93L were a bit stronger then 96L wouldve been TD2 by now because that wouldve helped the environment for 96L as 96L is doing for the new wave along 25W

[DESTRUCTION5]

SAL and dry air is still as strong as it has been all season

http://www.nwhhc.com/SAL/0712.html

Yes but (and feel free to correct me if I'm wrong here) it's my impression that when one gets a series of strong waves in quick succession as appears to be coming soon, the lead one or two can act as sacrifices to provide a better environment for one coming behind.

Agree...And If we end up with a similar situation SAL wise like last year it can only make Homemade Storms once again this year...And we know how bad that can be..

[benny]

Pressures are certainly lowered from what they were a few days ago in association with the positive phase of the MJO moving through. However I'm not convinced we are going to get much in the deep tropics from this wave. Conditions have been rather unfavorable for the past few weeks and it is going to take a huge change to get things favorable for development. It is pretty easy to get caught up in the heat of the moment and say the season's over etc but climate has a rather long timescale and I will wait to see Jun/Jul data in total before making a judgement. At this point I would be surprised if this season was as active as 2004... but things surely can change.

[skysummit]

SAL and dry air is still as strong as it has been all season

http://www.nwhhc.com/SAL/0712.html

Yes but (and feel free to correct me if I'm wrong here) it's my impression that when one gets a series of strong waves in quick succession as appears to be coming soon, the lead one or two can act as sacrifices to provide a better environment for one coming behind.

Agree...And If we end up with a similar situation SAL wise like last year it can only make Homemade Storms once again this year...And we know how bad that can be..

Agree because that would allow the waves to stay waves and make it across the Atlantic instead of forming and turning north.

[Derek Ortt]

what has been observed regarding the SAL is kind of the opposite. The leading wave is not the sacrifice, but the trailing wave is. It has been pointed out to me that a trailing wave blocks the SAL, allowing the leading wave to develop (which makes sense, since the SAL overtakes from the rear