Little Bahama Mama in the Gulf

#81 Postby **brunota2003** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 12:34 pm

theres a LLC with the system? any proof of that? like actual obs...not you "think" you see turning? I havent been paying attention much...so...I see a tropical wave and surface trough per 2:05 PM Discussion, but dont see any mention of a LLC?

#82 Postby **drezee** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 12:41 pm

MORE
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
BAHAMAS AND OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC
TROUGH ALONG 79W FROM 22N-27N ENHANCED BY THE MOIST UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT.

#83 Postby **fwbbreeze** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 12:45 pm

brunota2003 wrote:theres a LLC with the system? any proof of that? like actual obs...not you "think" you see turning? I havent been paying attention much...so...I see a tropical wave and surface trough per 2:05 PM Discussion, but dont see any mention of a LLC?

I agree there is no indication of an LLC. Looking at observations from Cuba and south florida all I am seeing is Easterly winds.

fwbbreeze

#84 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 12:53 pm

I see rotation off of the Miami radar, however, that rotation is also at +18,000 feet. I don't see any evidence of an LLC.

#85 Postby **brunota2003** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 1:46 pm

drezee wrote:MORE
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
BAHAMAS AND OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC
TROUGH ALONG 79W FROM 22N-27N ENHANCED BY THE MOIST UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT.

Sfc Trough and LLC are to different things...so still nothing proving there is a LLC out there...
Sfc Trough: An elongated area with relatively low MSLP, no closed circulation...a local area of lower pressure marked by a windshift and sfc convergence...

#86 Postby **storms in NC** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 3:29 pm

Look at all that dry air comeing across

#87 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:13 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 122108
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUL 12 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH. PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THE AREA...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

Jam151 · #88 Postby **Jam151** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:30 pm

pop corn showers over flordia induced by heat.

#89 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:34 pm

Jam151 wrote:pop corn showers over flordia induced by heat.

I think it's little more than just that causing those storms.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Jam151 · #90 Postby **Jam151** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:36 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
Jam151 wrote:pop corn showers over flordia induced by heat.

I think it's little more than just that causing those storms.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Well it could be the huge upper low in the gulf right now.

#91 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:48 pm

Jam151 wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:
Jam151 wrote:pop corn showers over flordia induced by heat.

I think it's little more than just that causing those storms.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Well it could be the huge upper low in the gulf right now.

It's a tropical wave and a surface trough... It's not popcorn showers. :wink:

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #92 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:53 pm

It's a combination of popcorn showers and the tropical wave and surface
trough...the Tropical Wave and Surface Trough are enhancing
the popcorn showers over Florida...making them more
numerous and allowing them to take on tropical
characteristics such as squally rains and gusty winds
to 35 mph. Some 25-35 mph gusts moved through
my area earlier this afternoon.

beachbum_al · #93 Postby **beachbum_al** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 5:01 pm

All I know is that I don't want to wake up tomorrow and find a storm headed my way. KWIM. This is the weekend the Blue Angels are flying!

#94 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 5:35 pm

I do see a spin on radar just north of the Cuban coast, but that is likely at this time a MLC. However, if convection can continue to refire there is a chance it could work down to the surface. We need to watch this one.

#95 Postby **Lowpressure** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 6:30 pm

I think this system is a non event-tropical development wise anyway.

Extremeweatherguy · #96 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 6:33 pm

Lowpressure wrote:I think this system is a non event-tropical development wise anyway.

Well I doubt the NHC would have mentioned the possibility of "slow development" if this was true.

Nimbus · #97 Postby **Nimbus** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 6:42 pm

You can see the shadow the high clouds make on the low level clouds in the sunset visible images. Looks like "slow development" is an accurate phrase. Have to see whats there in the morning.

Extremeweatherguy · #98 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 6:53 pm

Nimbus wrote:You can see the shadow the high clouds make on the low level clouds in the sunset visible images. Looks like "slow development" is an accurate phrase. Have to see whats there in the morning.

I'm confused? Do you mean it is inaccurate because you think there will be quick development or no development?

#99 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 6:55 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Nimbus wrote:You can see the shadow the high clouds make on the low level clouds in the sunset visible images. Looks like "slow development" is an accurate phrase. Have to see whats there in the morning.
I'm confused? Do you mean it is inaccurate because you think there will be quick development or no development?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

I like the rgb loop. It is a little easier to distinguish the Upper/Mid/Low level Clouds. There looks like there is a mid level spin.

Stormavoider · #100 Postby **Stormavoider** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 8:00 am

Looks like rotation.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=BYX&loop=yes

Little Bahama Mama in the Gulf

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