What will Philip J. Klotzbach/Dr Gray do at August Update?

[SouthFloridawx]

I would think he's allowed to have his own opinion.

No. Opinions are not allowed, except on weekends.

What about days that end in ."y"?

Sometimes.

Fine then we'll start a new rule that states... opinions are are only allowed on storm2k on Monday, Tuesday and Saturday of every other month. Then you have to get joint custody of the opinions and pay child support after the 6 month probationary period is over.

[bvigal]

:sleeping:

We also need a "Slap back to reality" emoticon...

Will this do in the interum?
Sorry Matt, just kidding!

[Grease Monkey]

No. Changing the numbers would be cheating. They have to stick with their original numbers.

[senorpepr]

:sleeping:

We also need a "Slap back to reality" emoticon...

Here we go...

[Old-TimeCane]

I think they'll leave the numbers the same. We could wind up having a season like 2004. Most everything happens in a really short time, but a lot happens. We may not be hyper-active like 2005, but we're far from a bust.

I'm looking at it this way (purely unscientific, and can't back it up with any more than I'm about to say): we're already ahead of 2004. Nothing at all happened until August that year.

So, even though it might get a little tougher to achieve it with each passing day, I see no reason why they should lower their numbers.

[cycloneye]

A good voting count so far.Those who haved not voted yet do so and if anyone has comments about this theme,replies are welcomed as so far there haved been many.

[WindRunner]

If they do anything, I'd say down by 1 in all to 16/8/4. I think those sound both reasonable and are mathematically pleasing

[bocadad]

I am a little surprised no one has mentioned the front page article today in the Sun Sentinel quoting Phil Klotzbach as saying their forecast will likely remain the same, even if July remains quiet. He notes the lower sst's and stronger shear but their relience on larger scale patterns makes them less likely to have a nervous breakdown over daily events. I don't think they are quite ready to throw in the towel for this hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

I am a little surprised no one has mentioned the front page article today in the Sun Sentinel quoting Phil Klotzbach as saying their forecast will likely remain the same, even if July remains quiet. He notes the lower sst's and stronger shear but their relience on larger scale patterns makes them less likely to have a nervous breakdown over daily events. I don't think they are quite ready to throw in the towel for this hurricane season.

Do you have a link to the Sun Sentinal?

[bocadad]

Here you go.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... 9681.story

[cycloneye]

Here you go.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... 9681.story

Thanks for the link.Interesting what Jeff Masters says there.And the last line from Phil who said,they would leave the numbers the same Or increasing it.

[Scorpion]

I think they'll definitely be lowering the numbers, or they should be. The early-season prerdictors they counted on for the higher total are just not there now. SSTs continue to fall (less major hurricanes) and wind shear remains typically high for this time of year. La Nina will not be present. Bermuda high is much stronger now - stronger trades mean more low-latitude shear. Why would they go so high above average with such conditions present?

How do SST's decrease during the middle of summer?

[MiamiensisWx]

I personally think they will downgrade the numbers slightly, which is my vote, but not by much.

[EDR1222]

I would think they might drop the numbers some. The environment still seems to be a little hostile out there, though that is not out of the ordinary for this time of year. If the remainder of July remains quiet, I would say they would at least drop them by a couple.

[cajungal]

Just because the season is quiet right now does not mean anything. It is only July 12th and July is usually one of the quietest months for activity. I read in Jeff Masters blog on wunderground.com that the conditions are expected to improve at the end of the month. Less wind shear. I think we will see lots of activity come August and September.

[Lifesgud2]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

To be honest...I really have no idea what they'll do...whether they will
lower the numbers or keep them the same or increase the numbers. But
I do know that there is little correlation between early season activity
and late season activity.

[SouthFloridawx]

To be honest...I really have no idea what they'll do...whether they will
lower the numbers or keep them the same or increase the numbers. But
I do know that there is little correlation between early season activity
and late season activity.

Well said

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thanks for compliments SouthFloridawx
2005 though was a different story...the ssts were so high and the shear
so low that it was easy to increase forecast numbers...this year though
is much closer to a normal year...so I'll wait and see what happens.
It could be like 2004....where there was little or no activity until late July and
then in August-September-October there was major activity.
Or it could be like less active active-cycle years that were less active during the late
season...
Or...
Or...
Or...
yup there's tons of possibilities...

[cycloneye]

Any more votes for this poll? The August update from the Colorado State University folks will be next friday August 4th.