Little Bahama Mama in the Gulf

[beachbum_al]

WPMI Weather (NBC 10 out of Mobile) reported on the swirl in the Gulf and what we are calling Bahama Mama. Both will bring much needed rain to the North Gulf Coast but he didnt' seem to worry about them in the form of development. Just something to watch. This was on at about 6:14am this morning 7/12/06.

[TampaFl]

Nassua Bahamas radar has a good view. Check it out.

http://www.bahamasweather.org.bs/radar/local/loop/


Robert

[storms in NC]

Is it going to go up the west coast of Fla? Looks to be going north now

[Nimbus]

As long as the system stays fairly weak it should continue tracking west to WNW through the florida straits. The shear is pushing the convection north but I think this storm will track more towards the mid gulf coast.

[rockyman]

Nassau is reporting winds from just west of due south (190 degrees)...though pressures are still very high:

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78073.html

Edit: 8am update...back to ESE (but at 20mph)

[HomesteadHoney]

Homestead is underwater. We have been in the cross-hairs of every storm for the past two weeks. Are these cells part of the Bahama's system?

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

The sky is so dark and low right now as it has been since last night and it's tanking once again.

[hiflyer]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
257 AM EDT WED JUL 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...AXIS OF TROP WV SEEMS TO BE RIGHT ALONG SE CST WITH
A SURGE OF WINDS BEHIND IT DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
BRINGING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE BEACHES. ABUNDANT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALSO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS
THE WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD. UPPER LOW ALSO EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IN THE SE GULF OF MEX. THIS ALSO AIDING IN BRINGING IN
PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS GOING FOR
TODAY WITH BOTH MAV/MET SHOWING THE HIGH NUMBERS. THE MAV GUIDANCE
SEEMS A LITTLE MORE IN LINE AS TO THE SITUATION SO WILL LEAN
TOWARDS ITS NUMBERS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FOR INTERIOR AND W CST
ZONES ALTHOUGH LIKELY EVERYWHERE IS IN ORDER. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
THEN MOVE OVER S FLA ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS THE WAVE
MOVES INTO THE GULF WITH THIS ALSO QUITE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THEN WE WILL MOISEN UP A BIT AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA. THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[beachbum_al]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/productview.shtml?pil=MOBAFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KMOB 120803
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
305 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2006

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL(H2) LOW WAS MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF...PUSHING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IS AS IT GOES. WATER
VAPOR LOOP SHOWS DEEPER MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD BE MOVING OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING WITH A EASTERLY WAVE
LAGGING BEHIND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. POP GUIDANCE HAS CAME UP
TODAY WITH DECENT(BUT LESS THAN 50) POPS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST ZONES. CONVECTION DYING OUT THIS EVENING
WITH SOME COASTAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST AIR MASS LATE
TONIGHT. WENT WITH MAX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE EVERYWHERE BUT
DESTIN...WHERE I THINK THE ONSHORE WIND...MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL HOLD HIGH BELOW 90. /11

(THURSDAY AND FRIDAY)...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES CLIMBING TO NEARLY TWO
INCHES AS TROPICAL WAVES MOVE ACROSS IN THE EASTERLY FLOW. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY STARTING THURSDAY IN THE EAST AND SPREADING
WESTWARD ON FRIDAY. COUNTERING THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE A BUILDING
H5 RIDGE AND ITS RESULTING SUBSIDENCE. THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
SLIGHTLY BELOW MAV POPS. NAM SOLUTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE DISCOUNTED
AS IT OVER DEVELOPS THE WAVE INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION CENTER W/
LANDFALL NEAR SE LOUISIANA LATE FRI OR EARLY SATURDAY. FORECAST POPS
ARE ALSO WELL BELOW MET GUIDANCE AS A RESULT. /13


.LONG TERM...H5 RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY GRADUALLY SHIFTS
WESTWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. THIS
TRANSPORTS SOME MUCH DRIER AIR...PW VALUES BELOW 1.5 INCHES BACK
INTO THE AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS RESULTS IN WARMER TEMPS AND BELOW CLIMO POPS FROM SUN THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA BY
MID WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE 12.00Z GEM
CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME TYPE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF
DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A LOOK AT THE GFS AND
ECMWF DO NOT INDICATE DEVELOPMENT...JUST SOMETHING TO LOOK OUT FOR
AS WE GET DEEPER INTO JULY. /13

&&

.MARINE...LAND BREEZE SHOULD FAIL TO DEVELOP NEXT FEW NIGHTS AS WEAK
EASTERLY WAVE MOVES WEST ACROSS NORTHERN GULF...WITH MAIN IMPACT
SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. WILL SEE AFTERNOON WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE WHICH WILL CREATE A LIGHT CHOP IN THE AFTERNOONS. WILL
SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEXT FEW MORNINGS IN THE
MORE TROPICAL AIR MASS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE WEEKEND WITH A TYPICAL SUMMER WIND
REGIME TAKING HOLD. /11


Doesn't look like the NWS is too worry over here.

[gatorcane]

Homestead is underwater. We have been in the cross-hairs of every storm for the past two weeks. Are these cells part of the Bahama's system?

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

The sky is so dark and low right now as it has been since last night and it's tanking once again.

Nope, just tropical wave after tropical wave hitting south florida...

[hiflyer]

There is just a touch more down off Cuba than what KMIA radar is showing
Bahamas radar
http://www.bahamasweather.org.bs/radar/local/loop/
Cuban Radar
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif
KMIA
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php ... 1&loop=yes
KEWY
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php ... x&loop=yes

[wxman57]

Now into range of WSR-88D from Miami.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Just a reminder - the Earth's surface is curved and radar beams are straight lines. That mesns the spin you see 135nm from Miami is around 20,000 to 25,000 ft above the surface. Surface plots show pressures 1018-1019mb and east to east southeast winds. No low there. I do see that weak spin aloft, though.

[Stormcenter]

Do any of you remember the depression that formed off the southeast coast several years ago and the pressure was like really high compared to normal tropical systems. I don't recall if it actually was named or not.

[Nimbus]

Those were low clouds turning last night at sunset. Apparantly the track is so close to Cuba that the NHC feels it is not a threat to the keys at this time.

Surface pressures are sky high but should be dropping as this storm comes through.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SANF1

If it were up to me I would upgrade it to a TD and track it towards Alabama for now. They can always shift the track later.

[skysummit]

Nimbus...are you saying you would actually updgrade those thunderstorms to a TD....NOW???? Why?????

[rockyman]

I'm very thankful that it is not up to us to make these decisions...We'd already be on TD25 by now

I've examined the radar loops, and while there is some turning, it definitely does not look even close to tropical depression status...When a tropical depression is within radar range, there will be no question...you won't have to instruct anyone to "speed up the loop up and run it backwards and forwards over and over and over" to see the spin...it will be evident at regular speed.

[Stormcenter]

Nimbus...are you saying you would actually updgrade those thunderstorms to a TD....NOW???? Why?????

I think he was kidding, right?

[storms in NC]

If you look at the out flow when you zoom in you will see that it is going to the right and not the left. Well that is what i saw any way. Does it need to go to the left for it to be tropical any thing?

[hiflyer]

I'm very thankful that it is not up to us to make these decisions...We'd already be on TD25 by now

think 25 could be too low...plus we would probably be on the C storm by now....

This is one moisture laden wave...pressures are high and so is the humidity. Any little land mass in the Bahamas triggering cells...even shallow reef areas. Little more warm water and lower pressures (like in the gulf) and.........

(FYI First storms last night big enough to shut down sat tv users, power blinks, and street flood. Canals are filling along with the lakes within the subdivisions and SoFla traffic is just 'wonderful'. Lotta blue roofs still down here and rates might go up to 1/2 to 1 inch hour in small areas do not help...one thing is that it's quiet between the storms as too wet for the roofers and the lawn service. )

[Nimbus]

The potential for a serious storm in the gulf before the weekend is the highest it has been this season.

1. A tropical system with a low level circulation entering the gulf.

2. An ULL rolling west that will help evacuate outflow of this system.

3. Gulf sea surface temps in the mid 80's.

4. A ridge of high pressure building westward into the gulf that will not only provide a low shear environment but will also tend to steer this system towards the already heavily damaged mid gulf coast.

5. Damn right some of us are jumpy.

[skysummit]

Until...or "if" this actually shows signs of development, I'm holding my jumpiness.