Severe Tropical Storm Bilis (0604) at WPAC

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HURAKAN
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#41 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 10, 2006 4:37 pm

ST BILIS, 2000:
Image

TS BILIS, 2006:
Image

LATEST NEWS:

TAIWAN WANTS "BILIS" TO BE RETIRED 4-EVER!!!!
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#42 Postby bombarderoazul » Mon Jul 10, 2006 5:48 pm

How do you not retire a Cat 5?
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#43 Postby WindRunner » Mon Jul 10, 2006 5:59 pm

Now at 45kts, but forecast to (relatively) rapidly strengthen.


RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0604 BILIS (0604)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 102100UTC 17.5N 129.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 260NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 112100UTC 20.8N 126.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
45HF 121800UTC 22.7N 124.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
69HF 131800UTC 24.6N 119.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT =
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#44 Postby HurricaneBill » Mon Jul 10, 2006 9:33 pm

bombarderoazul wrote:How do you not retire a Cat 5?


Typhoons were rarely retired because they would have run out of names after a few seasons.

A handful were retired among the pre-2000 era of naming.

Typhoon Ike 1984
Super Typhoon Mike 1990
Super Typhoon Mireille 1991
Tropical Storm Thelma 1991
Super Typhoon Omar 1992

Since 2000, 4 "names" have been removed.

2001 Typhoon Vamei
2002 Super Typhoon Chataan
2002 Typhoon Rusa
2003 Super Typhoon Imbudo
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#45 Postby P.K. » Tue Jul 11, 2006 3:34 am

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0604 BILIS (0604)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110600UTC 19.0N 129.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 260NM
FORECAST
24HF 120600UTC 22.1N 125.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
48HF 130600UTC 24.6N 122.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
72HF 140600UTC 25.9N 119.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
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#46 Postby P.K. » Tue Jul 11, 2006 8:08 am

Upgraded to a Severe Tropical Storm.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111200UTC 19.6N 128.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 121200UTC 22.4N 125.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
48HF 131200UTC 24.9N 120.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
72HF 141200UTC 25.8N 117.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
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#47 Postby P.K. » Tue Jul 11, 2006 11:13 am

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111500UTC 19.8N 127.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 121500UTC 22.9N 124.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
45HF 131200UTC 24.9N 120.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
69HF 141200UTC 25.8N 117.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
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#48 Postby WindRunner » Tue Jul 11, 2006 4:39 pm

And for once, the JMA has a much stronger intensity than the JTWC, who have this as a 40kt TS, and that's a one-minute speed, too. I can kind of see their logic, though, as this doesn't have a forward right quadrant whatsoever.


RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111800UTC 20.0N 127.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 121800UTC 22.6N 123.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
48HF 131800UTC 24.4N 119.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
72HF 141800UTC 25.3N 114.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
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#49 Postby P.K. » Tue Jul 11, 2006 5:41 pm

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 112100UTC 20.6N 126.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 122100UTC 22.9N 121.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
45HF 131800UTC 24.4N 119.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
69HF 141800UTC 25.3N 114.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
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#50 Postby P.K. » Wed Jul 12, 2006 3:35 am

55kts.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 21.3N 125.3E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 325NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 130600UTC 23.5N 120.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
48HF 140600UTC 25.0N 116.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
72HF 150600UTC 25.8N 112.3E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
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#51 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 12, 2006 6:18 am

Image

I would have to agree with the JTWC with its 40 knots (45 mph) estimate. First, the system hasn't been able since it formed to contract its circulation, and as all we know, smaller systems develop faster than larger systems. Second, its convective pattern is just horrible, the system has always been lop-sided to the south, keeping the northern sections always dry. Third, going back to the circulation, it's very broad, and usually systems have a harder time to intensify. It's just a mess. I don't know how this system is almost a typhoon according to JMA, because 55 knots 10-min is equal to 62.7 knots 1-min, a typhoon will be 64 knots.

Water vapor:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t3/wv.jpg

Infrared:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t3/avn.jpg
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#52 Postby mvtrucking » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:27 am

Quikscat:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _wp_0.html
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#53 Postby Starburst » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:33 am

These 2 systems are pretty close to each other. How is this going to effect each system?
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#54 Postby Jim Cantore » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:59 am

Looks like half a storm to me
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#55 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:01 am

There's strong northely shear affecting this system. I would agree with JTWC. This storm has peaked already.
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#56 Postby P.K. » Wed Jul 12, 2006 11:29 am

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 21.9N 124.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 325NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 131500UTC 23.9N 120.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
45HF 141200UTC 25.7N 116.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
69HF 151200UTC 26.6N 111.6E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
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Mike Doran

#57 Postby Mike Doran » Wed Jul 12, 2006 11:43 am

The half of the storm missing, to the north, is interesting to me.

The Yellow Sea is north, too--by Korea.

The Yellow Sea gets its name from the sand that flows down the Yellow River.

The Yellow River flows from what is now filling to be the largest dammed lake in the world behind Three Gorge dam. The lake will be the size of the largest fresh water lake in the world, Lake Superior.

Last month the dam itself was completed and the river was rediverted back to the dam.

The West Pac is going to be dam interesting this year.
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#58 Postby P.K. » Wed Jul 12, 2006 5:03 pm

60kts which is a fair bit ahead of the SSD dvorak estimate. Not sure where to get JMA dvorak estimates from though.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 122100UTC 22.5N 124.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 350NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 132100UTC 24.6N 121.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
45HF 141800UTC 26.0N 117.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
69HF 151800UTC 26.8N 113.7E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
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#59 Postby whereverwx » Thu Jul 13, 2006 1:22 am

Looks like Bilis is trying to get his act together, just before landfall occurs... sometime.

Image
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#60 Postby P.K. » Thu Jul 13, 2006 5:39 am

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0604 BILIS (0604)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130900UTC 24.4N 122.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
30KT 425NM EAST 325NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 140900UTC 26.0N 118.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
45HF 150600UTC 26.5N 116.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
69HF 160600UTC 27.4N 113.8E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
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