Ex-96L Invest,Comments

[DESTRUCTION5]

On this link

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=86752

Is this blob going toward LA later on actually 96L? It starts out near where 96L is located and moves through Cuba, etc and into the GOM and then up toward LA. What do you think?

i think if it takes the track thru Central cuba it won't be much come exit time...

[beachbum_al]

Does anyone have other computer runs for 96L that are updated?

[NDG]

On this link

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=86752

Is this blob going toward LA later on actually 96L? It starts out near where 96L is located and moves through Cuba, etc and into the GOM and then up toward LA. What do you think?

i think if it takes the track thru Central cuba it won't be much come exit time...

I would not take anything from the CMC for real, specially 6 days out.

[beachbum_al]

That is what I am thinking NDG. This is too far out in advance and too much can happen in that time period. Oh well I am going to enjoy my warm, hot, sunny summer along the Gulf Coast for the time being.

[gatorcane]

Looking nice on the visibles this morning....

there is a clear spin still to this system with the convection on the east side

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[mvtrucking]

Quikscat 13:42 UTC(8:42 am) Zip on ascending but descending ok.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

[wxman57]

Here's a new GARP image with sfc plots. Might be some small low to mid level spin just west of the convection. Comparing its current position (12.5N/58W) to BAM model guidance the past two days - it's MUCH faster and farther south than predicted. Remember, these models assume there is already a well defined LLC, and there isn't one. Just a wave with a trace of spin aloft.

Low-level steering is almost due west. I notice the trend in the BAM models is to the left. Eventually, theyll shift south of Cuba and the DR. Mean mid-level steering is fairly strong and almost due west from the current position. As the system passes well south of Cuba ithis weekend, high pressure aloft builds over the northern Gulf, increasing the easterly flow across the NW Caribbean and BoC. Assuming that a part of the disturbance survives passing the huge TUTT in the central Caribbean, a due west track into Central America and/or Mexico appears most likely.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/96La.gif

[wxman57]

Quikscat 13:42 UTC(8:42 am) Zip on ascending but descending ok.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

Note that the descending node pass was from yesterday afternoon. And all I see there is a weak wave axis.

[gatorcane]

thanks WxMan, as always great graphics and excellent explanation to help us understand this system better.

[Noles2006]

Must say that this looks a little bit interesting this morning.

[bvigal]

Quikscat 13:42 UTC(8:42 am) Zip on ascending but descending ok.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

I've been trying to bring up that manati site, since 5am, keeps saying not found. flushed cache, etc, etc, etc, still won't come up. Is it timing out, is just slow?

[bvigal]

Thanks wxman57!

[Weatherboy1]

Nice flareup in convection this AM. So maybe this thing will manage to turn into a depression at some point. But agreed on the track -- there is a very strong ridge stretching across the Atlantic right now, as you can see in these CIMSS steering maps:

low level steering flow:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

mid-level flow:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

So unless things were to change, this is a storm destined to take a southerly track (if it forms at all)

[wxman57]

Nice flareup in convection this AM. So maybe this thing will manage to turn into a depression at some point. But agreed on the track -- there is a very strong ridge stretching across the Atlantic right now, as you can see in these CIMSS steering maps:

low level steering flow:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

mid-level flow:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

So unless things were to change, this is a storm destined to take a southerly track (if it forms at all)

Good charts. Note that by this weekend, high pressure builds across the Gulf Coast and steering level winds at all levels are due west across the Yucatan and BoC.

[gatorcane]

As of the last TWO, the NHC said there wasn't alot of thunderstorm activity, but that was right when this new burst was forming...

so will they say anything different at the 11:30 TWO?

[Stormcenter]

Nice flareup in convection this AM. So maybe this thing will manage to turn into a depression at some point. But agreed on the track -- there is a very strong ridge stretching across the Atlantic right now, as you can see in these CIMSS steering maps:

low level steering flow:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

mid-level flow:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

So unless things were to change, this is a storm destined to take a southerly track (if it forms at all)

Good charts. Note that by this weekend, high pressure builds across the Gulf Coast and steering level winds at all levels are due west across the Yucatan and BoC.

If this steering pattern were in place throughout the remainder of season the folks along the N.GOM would be is great shape.

[Stormcenter]

Nice flareup in convection this AM. So maybe this thing will manage to turn into a depression at some point. But agreed on the track -- there is a very strong ridge stretching across the Atlantic right now, as you can see in these CIMSS steering maps:

low level steering flow:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

mid-level flow:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

So unless things were to change, this is a storm destined to take a southerly track (if it forms at all)

Good charts. Note that by this weekend, high pressure builds across the Gulf Coast and steering level winds at all levels are due west across the Yucatan and BoC.

What about mess over Florida this morning. Where is that headed?

[NDG]

As of the last TWO, the NHC said there wasn't alot of thunderstorm activity, but that was right when this new burst was forming...

so will they say anything different at the 11:30 TWO?

Probably so. Something in the line of " tropical wave has become better organized this morning & small convection has increased, development will be slow to occur due to the upper level environment."

[NDG]

Nice flareup in convection this AM. So maybe this thing will manage to turn into a depression at some point. But agreed on the track -- there is a very strong ridge stretching across the Atlantic right now, as you can see in these CIMSS steering maps:

low level steering flow:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

mid-level flow:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

So unless things were to change, this is a storm destined to take a southerly track (if it forms at all)

Good charts. Note that by this weekend, high pressure builds across the Gulf Coast and steering level winds at all levels are due west across the Yucatan and BoC.

If this steering pattern were in place throughout the remainder of season the folks along the N.GOM would be is great shape.

Yeah, we all know that it changes all the time, but if a system comes east of FL, on a more northerly lat, then it could affect the N GOM coast tracking into any little weakness in the ridge.

[drezee]

Barbados winds are increasing

http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA