Upper pattern looks to flatten out to end July

[hurricanetrack]

Just checking the GFS 00UTC run and it really looks like the upper air pattern will flatten out a lot as we end July. At 500mb, one can clearly see a nice long ridge set up from Africa all the way across the Atlantic and extending west deep in to the U.S. There is still a lot of energy showing up north of the Great Lakes- but ridges seemed to be anchored off the East and West coasts. I realize the long ranges are tough to verify, but the trend has been for the pattern to relax as we end the month.

I for one will be very eager to see how things look in the steering layers in about two weeks. That is, when I check models like the GFS in two weeks, I wonder what mid-August will look like. It's almost that time. We are about to find out if this season ends up as busy as the experts forecast as early as last December. A lot is riding on this in my opinion. Not only for a hurricane-weary nation, but also for the seasonal forecasters that we have come to know and respect so well. I suppose that if the analogs are any indication that we'll see a very busy August and September.

[Jim Cantore]

We havent seen anything yet, if this is going to be anything like 2004.... watch out.

After last year I think we need to have learned no matter how dead it may seem, we need to be prepared at all times.