Pro Mets when will the Atlantic start cookin

boca · #1 Postby **boca** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 10:05 pm

I know were in a positive MJO just look at the Pacific. Now concerning the Atlantic will we have to wait until mid to late August for Beryl or possibly sooner.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #2 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 10:07 pm

The Mjo moved into the Eastern pacific is causing this activty. I can't believe any one would say that the MJO is not important. I expect things to heat up when it makes it into the Atlantic.

HurricaneHunter914 · #3 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 10:09 pm

Maybe or maybe not, right now there is some positive MJO in the Atlantic, but I don't see much of a change.

boca · #4 Postby **boca** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 10:09 pm

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/g ... thly_1.gif

I think soon.

chadtm80 · #5 Postby **chadtm80** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 10:14 pm

They are Pro Mets.. Not Pro Psychics

cheezyWXguy · #6 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 10:15 pm

IM gonna give it another 1-2 weeks before beryl...depending on if 96L becomes beryl down the road...but if it doesnt, I have a feeling that mid week of the last week of july we could see another chance at a named storm.

#7 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 10:17 pm

Aug. 1st +/- 5 days

#8 Postby **storms in NC** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 10:21 pm

A watched pot never boilds LOL sorry I had to say that. :cheesy:

#9 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 10:21 pm

storms in NC wrote:A watched pot never boilds LOL sorry I had to say that.

Look at the Pot calling the Kettle black.

#10 Postby **storms in NC** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 10:24 pm

What is that so to mean?

#11 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 10:25 pm

storms in NC wrote:What is that so to mean?

I was adding in...

#12 Postby **storms in NC** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 10:26 pm

#13 Postby **deltadog03** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 6:11 am

The pattern is going to have to chance before much if anything can develop. Short term it looks to be trying in the SE GOM and our bahama mama. With that ULL backing west it will help ventilate our system. That HAS to happen before it has even a remote chance.

#14 Postby **WxGuy1** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:07 am

chadtm80 wrote:They are Pro Mets.. Not Pro Psychics

I wouldn't trust any forecast beyond a week this time of year. I'm surprised some folks try to be so specific at times, but let's face reality... We can't get 2 day forecasts correct sometimes, and anything beyond a week is starting to stretch what we know. Satellite can shed light on the lineup of tropical waves and what to expect in the short-term from anything coming off Africa, but extending that beyond a week is pushing it. Tropical cyclone genesis is one of the most challenging aspects of tropical meteorology, and there is almost always at least a small area of the GoM, Caribbean, or Atlantic that is at least moderately favorable for cyclone genesis (e.g. there could be a very large upper low across the open Atlantic, but conditions may be favorable in the Bay of Campeche). The global circulation and synoptic-level forecasts can be pretty good out a week or maybe two, but there's no way anyone can forecast sub-synoptic-scale or mesoscale areas that may provide relatively favorable conditions for genesis.

With all that said... All I can say is "I just don't know". It doesn't look like any tropical wave in the Atlantic now will develop much, so Beryl doesn't appear to be imminent.

Pro Mets when will the Atlantic start cookin

Pro Mets when will the Atlantic start cookin

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