I posted the following in the Tropical Analysis section, but I will repost it here to stress the point.
While we have already seen our first named storm this year, climatology says that by July 11th, we should have 0.9 named storms. Therefore, this is not a reason to hoist the freak-flag.
Below I have included a table listing July activity between 1976 and 2005. The first column is for storms forming on July 1st through July 11th. The second column represents storms forming on July 12th through July 31st. The third column is the July total for each respective year.
Code: Select all
2005 3 2 5
2004 0 1 1
2003 1 1 2
2002 0 1 1
2001 0 0 0
2000 0 0 0
1999 0 0 0
1998 0 1 1
1997 1 2 3
1996 1 1 2
1995 1 3 4
1994 0 0 0
1993 0 0 0
1992 0 0 0
1991 0 0 0
1990 0 3 3
1989 1 2 3
1988 0 0 0
1987 0 0 0
1986 0 0 0
1985 0 2 2
1984 0 0 0
1983 0 0 0
1982 0 0 0
1981 0 0 0
1980 1 0 1
1979 1 1 2
1978 0 1 1
1977 0 0 0
1976 0 1 1 So… what does this mean? Well, in reality, nothing. Mother Nature can do whatever she pleases, but these numbers can give us an idea of what July should hold for us.
Since 1995, there has been an average of 0.64 storms each year during the first 11 days of the month. With a standard deviation of 0.92, this gives us a range of 0.00 to 1.56.
Since 1995, there has been an average of 1.09 storms each year during the final 20 days of the month. With a standard deviation of 0.94, this gives us a range of 0.15 to 2.03. Therefore, it would be sensible for us to expect a storm or two for the rest of this month… but no storms whatsoever would not be too surprising.
For the whole month of July, the average since 1995 is 1.73 named storms. With a standard deviation of 1.68, this gives us a range of 0.05 and 3.41 storms.
Now, using a standard 30-year climatological data set…
Since 1976, there has been an average of 0.33 storms each year during the first 11 days of the month. With a standard deviation of 0.66, this gives us a range of 0.00 to 0.99.
Since 1976, there has been an average of 0.73 storms each year during the final 20 days of the month. With a standard deviation of 0.94, this gives us a range of 0.00 to 1.68. Therefore, it would still be sensible for us to expect a storm or two for the rest of this month… but no storms whatsoever would not be too surprising.
For the whole month of July, the average since 1976 is 1.07 named storms. With a standard deviation of 1.39, this gives us a range of 0.00 and 2.45 storms.
So… in short… SIMMER DOWN!
You seem as fed up as I am, maybe even more so.
