Gulf Spin

Stormavoider · #21 Postby **Stormavoider** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 7:53 am

Can this thing work down to the surface. It's looking real tight!

Stratusxpeye · #22 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 7:59 am

This little pesky thing has been bringing us some good percipation. In a popcorn florida usual thunderstorm on sunday night here at my house we received 4.6 inches of rain in 1 1/2 hours. Had to run out at 1am and empty the pool some so it wouldnt get streesed. But my parents house 1 miles away had 0.7 inches on the fringe of the storm

Love these afternoon thunderstorms.

IMO I highly doubt this would make it to the surface at all.

#23 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 12:22 pm

Stormavoider wrote:Can this thing work down to the surface. It's looking real tight!

Sure is persistent. Worth a bear or two.

HouTXmetro · #24 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 12:34 pm

When was the last time an ULL distinctly worked it's way down to the surface?

Thunder44 · #25 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 12:36 pm

Most ULL's seem to take 5 to 10 days over warm water to transition to warm core and make it down to the surface.

#26 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 12:41 pm

Depending on which OCM in Houston you listen to this ULL is either headed our way with arrival set for Fri./Sat. or it is going to be picked up and taken back NE across the peninsula. Anyone have anything on this in the way of learned conjecture or fact?

HouTXmetro · #27 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 12:43 pm

vbhoutex wrote:Depending on which OCM in Houston you listen to this ULL is either headed our way with arrival set for Fri./Sat. or it is going to be picked up and taken back NE across the peninsula. Anyone have anything on this in the way of learned conjecture or fact?

Channel 26 said it was going to move west towards Texas.

#28 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 12:45 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:Depending on which OCM in Houston you listen to this ULL is either headed our way with arrival set for Fri./Sat. or it is going to be picked up and taken back NE across the peninsula. Anyone have anything on this in the way of learned conjecture or fact?

Channel 26 said it was going to move west towards Texas.

Yep and Dr. Neil said it could go either way, but thought it would probably come our way. If the high pressure that was over us continues to move E, I think we will see it moving this way. Haven't even had a chance to check the sats yet today. :roll:

HouTXmetro · #29 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 12:48 pm

Moving slowly WSW.

HouTXmetro · #30 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 1:24 pm

Looks like convection is trying to infiltrate the center of the circulation. Isn't that a requirement for this thing to work it's way down to the surface? Not saying that it will.

Praxus · #31 Postby **Praxus** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 2:24 pm

Sure has quite the spin going...convection flaring somewhat to.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Extremeweatherguy · #32 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 2:30 pm

this looks very interesting, and along with the system near the bahamas and the central atlantic wave, I will have a lot to watch in coming days.

Extremeweatherguy · #33 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 3:33 pm

from the Houston afternoon AFD:

IR SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION HEADING WEST TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU/FRI
AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME DIVERGENT AND PW`S INCREASE TO JUST
OVER 2 INCHES. SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE HOLD ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE NEXT LOW SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.

looks like this ULL and another one (likely referring to the system in the Bahamas) will be on the way to TX over the next week. The question is...can they work their way down to the surface?

HouTXmetro · #34 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 3:44 pm

The tropics will never get going with all these ULLs around. I don't ever recall so many ULLs in play.

Stormavoider · #35 Postby **Stormavoider** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 3:55 pm

[url]=http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html[url][url]

Look at the last 3 frames of this loop. At the circulation center , there is a growing dot.
Is this some convection starting????

alan1961 · #36 Postby **alan1961** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 4:30 pm

yes stormavoider, a definite dot appears so it appears at least that theres something trying its little heart out!

Stormavoider · #37 Postby **Stormavoider** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 7:21 pm

I'm new here and to this forum participation thing for that matter. Why does this low in the gulf not seem to spark any real discussion of future development. It seems to be building in organization. I guess I don't understand the difficulties for a system to transition between an ULL and a tropical system.
** Please explain **

Javlin · #38 Postby **Javlin** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 7:22 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:The tropics will never get going with all these ULLs around. I don't ever recall so many ULLs in play.

The last time I remember this many ULL's and TUTT's was I believe the year Chantal hit TX if I got the name right I know it was a C named storm.So yea as long as they persist it will be tough on development for the most part.There is a time when these ULL's can actually enhance development helping with the out flow and that would seem to be the SE +NE Quad I think.

#39 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Jul 11, 2006 8:04 pm

The 8:05 NHC discussion seems to indicate that although it's not hyped, the situation in the GOM is being monitored.

#40 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 5:12 pm

The 5:30 p.m. TWO re-enforces my previous statement about monitoring the GOM. It's the place to watch for the time being.

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