Little Bahama Mama in the Gulf

[rainstorm]

with another trough moving to the east coast, i dont think it has much of a chance

[jabber]

I think the NHC is thinking the same thing.... no mention in the 11:30 TWO

with another trough moving to the east coast, i dont think it has much of a chance

[N2DaTropics]

as this moves more west norht west what is the forecast steering would the two ulls (one southwest of fl and the other northeast) make this thing go into south/ cent fl or would this "blob" watch be more of a keys event and then gulf

my amateur guess would be initial wnw-nw motion then more due west

On Accuweather's site they depict this wave as providing a "surge of moisture" across Central and Southern FL then out into the Gulf and heading into the Northern Gulf Coast along the MS/AL border...

[Extremeweatherguy]

as this moves more west norht west what is the forecast steering would the two ulls (one southwest of fl and the other northeast) make this thing go into south/ cent fl or would this "blob" watch be more of a keys event and then gulf

my amateur guess would be initial wnw-nw motion then more due west

On Accuweather's site they depict this wave as providing a "surge of moisture" across Central and Southern FL then out into the Gulf and heading into the Northern Gulf Coast along the MS/AL border...

the arrow actually shows it heading into the N.O. area, but this is also not referring to a particular "system". Instead this accuweather map is just talking about where moisture is expected to go.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the NHC is thinking the same thing.... no mention in the 11:30 TWO

with another trough moving to the east coast, i dont think it has much of a chance

just because there is no mention, doesn't mean nothing will happen. Remember Allison? There was no mention of her in the morning and then 12 hrs. later she was a storm. I will wait to see what JB has to say later before making my call on this thing.

[NDG]

with another trough moving to the east coast, i dont think it has much of a chance

trough coming in a couple og days will not be strong enough, ridging will be in control in the SE fir the next few days.

[Epsilon_Fan]

interesting... and the t-storms are building around it

[Nimbus]

Floater 2 is centered over the area. With the ULL to the west pulling moisture north the shear could create a significant rain event for Florida.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I can't say what storm this reminds me of. But it looks just like it before it started to really organize. Not saying it has any chance at it...But we will have to watch if a cirulation can form under that convection.

[drezee]

More like Jerry from 1995

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thats what I'm thinking might happen if the LLC can develop. We will have to see.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks like a Popcorn afternoon Thunder Storm to me...Rain fo FL...

[boca]

I don't see any twisting just a wave heading towards Florida thats all it is. I thought I saw something this morning but was mistaken.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah its eastly winds all the way through with the ULL over the southeastern Gulf. Which the east winds blowing to about 75 west then the upper level southwestly winds blowing making a converging zone. But still interesting I would watch for a weak spin up. Still eastly by the obs.

[Rainband]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0


ONCE THIS TROPICAL WAVE PASSES...ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO COME IN ON WEDNESDAY. NAM CONTINUES
TO STRONGLY DIVERGE FROM OTHER MODELS BRINGING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TPC HAS NO MENTION OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE EVEN HAVING A CHANCE FOR DEVELOPING...AND AGREE WITH
THAT ASSESSMENT ON THIS SIDE. STILL...AREA CAN EXPECT A CONTINUED
HIGH CHANCE FOR RAINS FOR WED...AND EVEN SOME ON THU AS AREA WILL
STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR AFTN TSTMS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...AND THEN
WILL SEE VALUES RECOVER BACK TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY.



good thing the NAM isn't a tropical model

[gatorcane]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=TBWAFDTBW&version=0


ONCE THIS TROPICAL WAVE PASSES...ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO COME IN ON WEDNESDAY. NAM CONTINUES
TO STRONGLY DIVERGE FROM OTHER MODELS BRINGING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TPC HAS NO MENTION OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE EVEN HAVING A CHANCE FOR DEVELOPING...AND AGREE WITH
THAT ASSESSMENT ON THIS SIDE. STILL...AREA CAN EXPECT A CONTINUED
HIGH CHANCE FOR RAINS FOR WED...AND EVEN SOME ON THU AS AREA WILL
STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR AFTN TSTMS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...AND THEN
WILL SEE VALUES RECOVER BACK TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY.



good thing the NAM isn't a tropical model

it is a good thing

[tailgater]

I'll be watching just west of Jamica for a flare of Tstorms, the best turning of the wave that is entering a more favorable area aloft.

[skysummit]

It's only the NAM, but remember the NAM was one of the first, along with the Canadian, to pick up on Alberto when no other models saw it.

[Dean4Storms]

Just got in and looked into this feature. Looks suspicious and will have to be watched, but with the shear and the close proximity to Florida with any possible development it wouldn't have much of a chance to be more than a heavy rain maker. Once in the Gulf could be another story.

[WindRunner]

It's only the NAM, but remember the NAM was one of the first, along with the Canadian, to pick up on Alberto when no other models saw it.

Yeah, maybe this'll be the year of the non-tropical model dominance, where the CMC and NAM will nail every storm and we'll have to relegate the BAMs to the polar lows in Europe (well, we should probably send the BAMs to Europe anyway, but that's a different subject . . .)