Could Tampa Bay Be the Next New Orleans?

[Cookiely]

It wouldn't be worse than in New Orleans.....at least in Tampa, the surge would begin receding once the storm passed.

New Orleans is a very unique situation.

I agree.

[caneman]

In theory, yes one could argue that a "Katrina" in LA would do damage to a larger area of SE Lousiana given the large swath of land at or below sea level. But the same storm would cause more losses in Tampa-St. Pete because there is significantly more urbanized and developed land that will be directly impacted. It's just that simple. It comes down to numbers and how many houses, office buildings, airports, etc. are crowded into a given space of land. That's exactly why a storm making landfall on Matagorda bay here in Texas is much less of a concern than one in Galveston. The surge itself may be similiar in size but the losses/outcome will be vastly different.

Bret '99 was a powerful hurricane but it didn't do much damage because it hit a sparesly populated area.

Not sure how you can make that assumption. New Orleans is a highly industrialized area with a population density making it the 5th most densely populated city in the US. Tampa ranks 38th in population density. New Orleans was #2 on the FEMA list of worst possible disasters... #1 being a terrorist attack on NYC, and #3 being a major earthquake in L.A.

I'd love to be wrong, as it would make the case for investment in New Orleans easier. Unfortunately, I don't think I am.

Well, in fact you are partly. Pinellas County is the most densely populated county in Florida. The Tampa Bay area as a whole has 3x the population of New Orleans. And The Weather channel ranked it in the top 5 of worse place for a Hurricane to hit. And while storm surge may reced quickly does it matter if most of the homes and businesses are ruined. Pinellas County would be virtually cut off from civilization (I'm sure our bridges would be gone). And Pinellas couny would basically become a pair of islands. We can nickel and dime all day long but the fact is each place has its own set of problems with a major storm. And over congestion (unable or unwilling to evacuate) and indifference are 2 of the biggest problems for each.

[jasons2k]

In theory, yes one could argue that a "Katrina" in LA would do damage to a larger area of SE Lousiana given the large swath of land at or below sea level. But the same storm would cause more losses in Tampa-St. Pete because there is significantly more urbanized and developed land that will be directly impacted. It's just that simple. It comes down to numbers and how many houses, office buildings, airports, etc. are crowded into a given space of land. That's exactly why a storm making landfall on Matagorda bay here in Texas is much less of a concern than one in Galveston. The surge itself may be similiar in size but the losses/outcome will be vastly different.

Bret '99 was a powerful hurricane but it didn't do much damage because it hit a sparesly populated area.

Not sure how you can make that assumption. New Orleans is a highly industrialized area with a population density making it the 5th most densely populated city in the US. Tampa ranks 38th in population density. New Orleans was #2 on the FEMA list of worst possible disasters... #1 being a terrorist attack on NYC, and #3 being a major earthquake in L.A.

I'd love to be wrong, as it would make the case for investment in New Orleans easier. Unfortunately, I don't think I am.

New Orleans is in a relatively much smaller geographic area, so yes there is a higher number in population density. But Tampa-St. Pete is a much larger metro area as caneman said - more businesses, more households, more infrastructure. Another thing to remember is that many tourists and part-time residents are not counted in the census. All summer long, those 20-story hotels that line the Suncoast are filled with people who don't live there which adds to the problem. All-in-all, there's simply just more stuff to get destroyed which would add to the final $ tally.

[TSmith274]

Good points. I actually have family in Bradenton. Let's hope we never find out.

[mf_dolphin]

Folks let's not argue over which would be worse. If it happens to your house and your hometown it's going to be hell. New Orleans escaped their doomsday event and yet the city may never be the same. The water did what the wind didn't and thousands of people lost their lives because they didn't or couldn't prepare. Now is the time (PAST TIME) to get yourselves and your family ready. Please don't say "I only wish...." after it's too late. If we get nothing else across other than that, S2K will have served it's purpose.....

[baygirl_1]

Yes, when your area gets hit by a hurricane, it definitely makes it the worst season ever... for you. I think the thing in all of this that really gives me pause is that the best teacher is experience. It had been, what, 40 years since New Orleans experienced the wrath of Hurricane Betsy? While the "old-timers" remembered, the younger generations had no experience with which to compare Katrina. I know the New Orleans media kept reminding folks that Katrina could be worse than Betsy. A friend told me her grandmother finally agreed to evacuate when she heard that on TV! However, in the Tampa Bay area, it's been 85 years (I believe the article said 1921) since they received a direct hit from a hurricane. That means none (well, maybe a few transplants from areas that were hit by hurricanes) have any experience with hurricanes. Yes, they saw what happened in Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte, to their south, but that's not the same as experiencing the sights and sounds of a hurricane in your hometown. I will never forget what Mobile looked like after Hurricane Frederic and what that wind sounded like all night long. And that is my big motivator when a hurricane threatens.
On a side note: We vacationed at Indian Rocks Beach every summer when I was a child and it breaks my heart to think of what that area would be like after a hurricane. Actually, we were nearly caught there when Hurricane Erin came across the state in 1995. I was so scared we'd be stuck in traffic trying to get across those bridges! We were ready and left as soon as the hurricane warning was issued. But, again, they were spared the worst. I pray for those who really have no clue what a hurricane can do.

[hurricanefloyd5]

i have to Disagree i dont think it "COULD" i think it "WILL" happen may not be this year nor the next year but we will see another Katrina Type storm and roll right into Tampa Bay Area and this is realality folks so be prepared in Tampa Bay and dont take the Hurricane Warnings lightly because Tampa is a sitting duck awaiting to be slammed and that gose as well for Orlando!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

PS. Remember folks if Tampa Bay gets slammed like New Orleans Did then Orlando watch out as well!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Hurricanebob]

http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/st ... html?imw=Y

Here is the article which sparked lots of media followups.

I'd say the worst fear is people waiting until the storm is coming for sure because by then i't be impossible to empty this county Pinellas to accompdate the ample evacuation levels needed for a cat 3 or higher. Though the county will drain quickly, the devistation will still remain.

bob

[Derek Ortt]

Orlando already got theirs from Charley

A Tampa strike may mean the core misses Orlando to the north, while a track slightly south from a similar strength, but larger storm than Charley will result in at least category 2 conditions in the center of the city

[hurricanefloyd5]

Orlando already got theirs from Charley

A Tampa strike may mean the core misses Orlando to the north, while a track slightly south from a similar strength, but larger storm than Charley will result in at least category 2 conditions in the center of the city

he don't count because he was a min. cat.1 hurricane in orlando and orlan do a way overdue for a major cane!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! well im just north and west of downtown orlando in northewest orange county!!!!!!!!!

[stpeteweathergal]

Many analysts have reported their thoughts about a direct hit storm for Pinellas County.
In the end, they all advise that we evacuate to shelters in the county on higher ground.
It's been said that there is no way we can safely get everybody out of the county in time.
I've lived here all my life (40 years) and I've heard MANY people who say
they'll "just head to Orlando or out of state" if the big one comes. It's sad to know that if we get a Cat 3 or higher, there will be a lot of damage and loss.
At least I know I'm prepared and have a good local shelter to go to.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Many analysts have reported their thoughts about a direct hit storm for Pinellas County.
In the end, they all advise that we evacuate to shelters in the county on higher ground.
It's been said that there is no way we can safely get everybody out of the county in time.
I've lived here all my life (40 years) and I've heard MANY people who say
they'll "just head to Orlando or out of state" if the big one comes. It's sad to know that if we get a Cat 3 or higher, there will be a lot of damage and loss.
At least I know I'm prepared and have a good local shelter to go to.

if people flee to orlando that will make things worse because they are not directly taking themselfs outta harms way and thats why that should flee north outta state like you said or flee way south if Tampa Bay gets a direct hit from a Major Hurricane!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

PS. It's safer that way!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[bobbutts]

i have to Disagree i dont think it "COULD" i think it "WILL" happen may not be this year nor the next year but we will see another Katrina Type storm and roll right into Tampa Bay Area and this is realality folks so be prepared in Tampa Bay and dont take the Hurricane Warnings lightly because Tampa is a sitting duck awaiting to be slammed and that gose as well for Orlando!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

PS. Remember folks if Tampa Bay gets slammed like New Orleans Did then Orlando watch out as well!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Orlando is about 100' above sea level. Go to an interior room in a strong structure and wait for the storm to pass. Look at the deaths from Surge vs. Wind and you'll feel better. Not to take away from wind damage, but it is far less of a dire concern than surge flooding.

p.s. I have a house for sale at el. 16' in Port Charlotte all damage repaired if anyone is interested.

[Derek Ortt]

and there is a reason why Charley was Orlando's worst hurricane ever

Majors that far inland are nearly impossible. To even get 75KT sustained in Orlando with gusts approaching 100KT is a very rare event, which I do not believe has ever happened before

[hurricanefloyd5]

and there is a reason why Charley was Orlando's worst hurricane ever

Majors that far inland are nearly impossible. To even get 75KT sustained in Orlando with gusts approaching 100KT is a very rare event, which I do not believe has ever happened before

not true look at donna hit orlando as a cat.3 and i know in 2004 orlando didn't get the worse case sernereo from charily and orlando could and will be slammed by another major cane and thats for mother nature to decide on when this could and will happen!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[HurricaneHunter914]

HurricaneFloyd5, you have another storm to add to the EPAC.

[skysummit]

What's a sernereo? and who's charily?

[hurricanefloyd5]

i can't spell today!!!!!!!!!LOL

[jasons2k]

not true look at donna hit orlando as a cat.3

Sorry, don't think so:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... 1106_z.gif

[hurricanefloyd5]

WELL IF THATS TRUE THEN ORLANDO IS STILL WAY OVERDUE FOR A MAJOR CANE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! PS i still this donna hit orlando as a three but thats just me!!!!!!!!!

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at196005.asp

borderline three m aybe abit higher here in orlando!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! sustain winds!!!!!!!! 115mph at the weakest and maybe 120 at the strongest!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!