Could Tampa Bay Be the Next New Orleans?

[gatorcane]

Good article by the Palm Beach Post (W. Palm Beach Florida paper):

The storm surge vulnerability of Tampa Bay is one of the highest in this country:

snippet:

"If a storm similar in strength hit the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro area, Florida's most populous, the devastation could be even greater."



Article:
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/cont ... _0709.html

Storm surge animation:
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/cont ... a_bay.html

[HollynLA]

Hopefully, if this is the case, the Tampa area will have learned from the mistakes in NOLA, and all will leave with a threatening storm.

I'd never heard that Tampa was the most vulnerable area for storm surge though, but I did know that it was a high risk surge area. Can someone else chime in on this? Is that a proven fact?

But yes, the damage would be 10X greater than in NOLA, afterall, it IS Florida!!

[hial2]

[quote="gatorcane"]Good article by the Palm Beach Post (W. Palm Beach Florida paper):

The storm surge vulnerability of Tampa Bay is one of the highest in this country:

snippet:

"If a storm similar in strength hit the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro area, Florida's most populous, the devastation could be even greater."

I thought that most of the damage in NOLA was due to the levees failure to control the water..As far as I know there are no levees in Tampa and also is not as far below sea level as NOLA

[JonathanBelles]

i think it would be worse than NO because there are 3 major cities in a small area, one on a peninsula and an airforce base in the middle of the bay.

[stormchazer]

Tampa's vulnerability hinges on a storm with the eye hitting just left of the mouth of Tampa Bay. This would cause the storm surge to be funneled up into the bay and over the top of coastel Tampa. One advantage Tampa has over NO is that rarely does a storm of the intensity of a "Katrina" approach from the Southwest which is what would be required for a worse case scenario. Any storm that does is usually steered by an approaching trough, and therefore is ussually in a shearing environment. That was the fear when Charley was threatening. NO is in much more vulnerable position and prone to storms approaching from the south around the periphery of a strong westward reaching Bermuda High.

Thats not to say it cannot happen. Law of averages says it will someday. After all, it is the Tropics and it seems anything can, and often does happen.

[CrazyC83]

What would the storm surge there be like if a Category 5 storm made landfall at, say, Port St. Lucie, and raced across the peninsula while still a major hurricane when it passes just south of the Tampa Bay area?

[Stormavoider]

What would the storm surge there be like if a Category 5 storm made landfall at, say, Port St. Lucie, and raced across the peninsula while still a major hurricane when it passes just south of the Tampa Bay area?

I think that would tend to blow water OUT of the bay.

[stormchazer]

What would the storm surge there be like if a Category 5 storm made landfall at, say, Port St. Lucie, and raced across the peninsula while still a major hurricane when it passes just south of the Tampa Bay area?

I think that would tend to blow water OUT of the bay.

Not when approaching from the west. Storm hitting around St. Pete Beach, or slightlty north would bring the worst front corner (SE) right up Tampa.

Correct me if I am wrong, of course.

[CrazyC83]

What would the storm surge there be like if a Category 5 storm made landfall at, say, Port St. Lucie, and raced across the peninsula while still a major hurricane when it passes just south of the Tampa Bay area?

I think that would tend to blow water OUT of the bay.

Not when approaching from the west. Storm hitting around St. Pete Beach, or slightlty north would bring the worst front corner (SE) right up Tampa.

Correct me if I am wrong, of course.

I'm talking about the wraparound on the backdoor impact.

I guess it would have to be reversed for such - pass north of the area, so a landfall near Melbourne?

[HollynLA]

I thought that most of the damage in NOLA was due to the levees failure to control the water..As far as I know there are no levees in Tampa and also is not as far below sea level as NOLA

Yes and No. The levees failed due to the surge amounts, therefore it was still the surge that caused the flooding. The surge topped the levees in some areas like St. Bernard parish and topped and broke the levees in other parts of NOLA. bottom line, it was the surge that caused the damage, levees or no levees.

Also, what makes the surge so devestating in New Orleans is the fact that once it comes in, it cannot wash back out. It sat there for weeks. Some houses that may have been able to repair if it had just washed back out, became inhabitable due to the length of time the water sat there.

[Stormavoider]

What would the storm surge there be like if a Category 5 storm made landfall at, say, Port St. Lucie, and raced across the peninsula while still a major hurricane when it passes just south of the Tampa Bay area?

I think that would tend to blow water OUT of the bay.

Not when approaching from the west. Storm hitting around St. Pete Beach, or slightlty north would bring the worst front corner (SE) right up Tampa.

Correct me if I am wrong, of course.

CrazyC83's scenario brought it across the state from the east passing south of Tampa.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I've heard many times since Katrina that the two other cities most vulnerable to what we went through in New Orleans are Tampa and New York City.

[hial2]

Also, what makes the surge so devestating in New Orleans is the fact that once it comes in, it cannot wash back out (QUOTE)

Yes, the pumps either failed or were not manned, if I remember correctly...NOLA is on a basin between the Miss and Lake Ponchatrain..

And since you mentioned that the flood would have occurred regardless of the levees, another Katrina-like disaster is unavoidable..sooner or later.

New Orleans should have been rebuilt on another safer place..there was talk about that..

[Sean in New Orleans]

"New Orleans should have been rebuilt on another safer place..there was talk about that.."

It was briefly mentioned in a meeting the week after Katrina during times of brainstorming, but, when the total figure for that was discovered to be somewhere in the neighborhood of $6 Trillion, it was quickly decided to spend $20 or so billion and repair the levees.

[HollynLA]

Yes, the pumps either failed or were not manned, if I remember correctly...NOLA is on a basin between the Miss and Lake Ponchatrain..

The pumps in NOLA cannot work if they go underwater completely. Therefore, the pumps that are not under have to pump enough out to expose the other pumps to get them back online. Only then can they work. NOLA is between Lake Ponchatrain and the Miss. River and the ground floor of NOLA sits 15' (I think?) below the water levels of the two.

[Pearl River]

NOLA is about 8-10 ft below sea level. The water in Lake Pontchartrain also needed to go down for the pumps to work too. The city does have some gravity drainage to a point, then the pumps take over. New Orleans will never be moved because of it's closeness to the Gulf. When politicians brainstorm I get scared, but that's another story.

All the stories originally about the levee's breaching, said they occured after Katrina moved on, but we know that is not true. I hope Tampa nor anyone else has to go thru this.

[f5]

i don't think a trough would allow a hurricane to move NE with 175 mph sustained winds without some form of wind shear

[stormchazer]

What would the storm surge there be like if a Category 5 storm made landfall at, say, Port St. Lucie, and raced across the peninsula while still a major hurricane when it passes just south of the Tampa Bay area?

I think that would tend to blow water OUT of the bay.

Not when approaching from the west. Storm hitting around St. Pete Beach, or slightlty north would bring the worst front corner (SE) right up Tampa.

Correct me if I am wrong, of course.

I'm talking about the wraparound on the backdoor impact.

I guess it would have to be reversed for such - pass north of the area, so a landfall near Melbourne?

My apologies C83. I agree with you on Port St Lucie! I thought you were talking about Tampa. I lept before I read.

[NFLnut]

Tampa would probably never see devastation as did NOLA. Discounting the "Perfect Storm" hitting from the southwest and driving water up the bay, Tampa does not sit in a bowl, surrounded by a major river and low marshes as does NO.

[TSmith274]

The levees failed due to the surge amounts, therefore it was still the surge that caused the flooding.

Holly, I'd be careful making that assumption. The levee walls that failed on the 17th St. canal, for example, failed with the water level 3 feet or more below the design standards. What happened to the vast majority of New Orleans was failed levee design. Let's not forget that.