Cat 4 hurricanes very unlikely north of Florida on E Coast

[mtm4319]

As far as Mr. Ortt's credibility or reputation is concerned, I know of no one attempting to convey a slur on either of those simply by disagreeing. Why is it that when one voices a disagreement, that to some this is miraculously morphed into an attack on their reputation or credibility.

A2K

I was referring to this post in particular, two posts above the one you quoted:

I have never come across a reputable meteorologist who believes that Hugo was a Cat 5 at landfall. Any evidence provided in this thread so far is marginal at best.

I didn't mean to imply that you were doing this, although it may have seemed so since I didn't quote this directly before. I apologize if you thought I was accusing you of such.

[Ixolib]

If nothing else Katrina has elevated the seriousness of hurricanes to a new level.... and that just might save a bunch of lives next go around... this one for sure...

And this one too, Frank.

Unfortunately, I don't believe the "awareness" has truly spread much beyond ground zero - at least not to any huge degree. Case in point are the fine folks I've encountered here in west central FL. Sooooo many that I talk to simply do not have the first-hand experience to guide them appropriately. Here are just a few indicators:
**Most STILL measure a cane's intensity with absolute reliance on the SS scale.
**Most STILL think if they're "not in a flood zone" they have no worries.
**Most STILL use Charley as their primary measuring stick of what a major can do in this area.
and
**Most STILL feel this part of the GOM coastline is, based on history, well protected from a major landfall.

For those of us who have a personal history of "before & after Katrina", we have an absolute awareness that, unfortunately, simply does not exist in many other areas. The sad part being "they" don't even realize the awareness they don't have...

[Frank P]

Ixolib.... great post, and if what you say is indeed the rule and not the exception in your new florida home area then unfortunately its just a matter of time before a bunch more people are killed needlessly from that next monster hurricane... but not this Biloxi boy.....

[shaggy]

well after continueing to read this thread about cat 4's hitting north of florida i have only seen the last 2 pages of yet another katrina arguement in the long list of katrina arguements!

Back on topic now there have not been many cases of cat 4's hitting north of florida with the exception of a few.My thinking is that there are 2 types of hurricanes approaching the mid atlantic and why most of them are not cat 4's.Most of the time they make the NW turn towards the SE coast they are interacting with a trough which always tends to weaken them.This was the case with Floyd and Isabel.However on a few rare occasions storms are turned north with good conditions such as Bertha and Fran and both were either held their intensity or actually got stronger.

If Floyd had held his cat 4 155mph winds for just 12-18 more hours before accelerating northward he would have hit as a very strong cat 3 or border line cat 4.So it is entirely possible to get storms of that strength up here but lets hope we dont see it happen anytime soon!

[timNms]

From the NHC on August 29, 2005

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...ABOUT 35 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 45 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK
THE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TODAY AND INTO
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.

AT NOON CDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HATTIESBURG MISSISSIPPI.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK
THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TODAY AND
INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

AT 2 PM CDT...1900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HATTIESBURG MISSISSIPPI.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK
THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TODAY AND
INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 95 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES
NORTHWEST OF LAUREL MISSISSIPPI.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER
WILL BE MOVING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT AND
INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

Between 2pm and 4pm all hell broke lose at my house. Being in the eyewall was an experience I don't want to have again. That's when one heard trees snapping and crashing to the ground, the constant roar of the winds, debris flying everywhere, and my house popping, groaning, creaking, and vibrating so bad that I thought it was going to come off of it's foundation. That's also the time at which my bed became a waterbed

I looked at the map you guys were discussing ( http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/KatrinaWinds2.gif ) If I am reading the map correctly, I find it hard to believe that cat 3 winds would stop on the shorelines south of the Buras area and not continue across, then pick back up just offshore to the north and east of the land mass.

Also, according to the map, cat 3 winds stop just before moving inland on the Mississippi coast. According to the NHC advisories, Katrina was a 125 mph cat 3 at the mouth of the Pearl River. (For those unfamiliar with the area, the Pearl River is the border between LA and MS through Washington Parish, LA/Pearl River Co. MS and St. Tammany Parish LA/Hancock Co., MS.) According to the map being discussed, we're supposed to believe that she switched her winds off just before moving ashore? I find that to be quite questionable, especially considering that the NHC says she was at least 125 mph at MS landfall and even cat 2 40 miles south of Hattiesburg. ( here's a map of MS http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/united_s ... ppi_90.jpg I'm in Covington Co. and I can assure you, it was quite windy here)

To touch on the saffir simpson scale for a moment, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml I found it interesting to read that not until cat 3 did the scale mention trees being stripped of foilage. Well, folks, you should have seen the trees here...errrr the ones left standing. They were bare of foilage. Does that mean I think Katrina was still a 3 in my area? Nah, but she sure packed a whollop. I can't recall seeing that many trees down and the ones left standing bare. It looked like the middle of winter with the bare trees. Weird thing was, the evergreens were even bare. There were also numerous trees stripped of their bark!

While it's easy to argue and say she was this or she was that, the bottom line is that she was nothing short of the worst natural disaster this area has ever seen...be it that she was a 5 or a tropical depression. It will take YEARS for the area along the coast and WELL inland to fully recover from the destruction. Arguing at what cat she came in will do nothing to help those who lost everything. And like someone else mentioned. unless you've been through it yourself, lived it daily, you have no clue what it's like.

[Derek Ortt]

best track dropped Katrina's MS landfall slightly to 120 m.p.h.

One should not use advisory information to determine an actual landfall intensity, as that is an operational estimate, not subject to extensive data analysis

[storms in NC]

I was flooded by floyd and I have been thought 7 hurricans

Please forgive this real quick lapse off topic but I couldn't help but notice the "Wallace" La., ID... isn't that where one of the plantations used in "The Skeleton Key" is located? Is it Felicite, or Evergreen?... anyway, more to the tune of tropics.... how did it fare after Katrina?--because we don't have many of those classic antebellums left and it's tragic how many Mississippi has lost.

A2K

It says Wallace,NC and I have family in LA 16 miles east of Amite La. and they didn't do do well thank you. They are in thier 70;s and no one to help them. No one could fine them after the huriccane We did fine them and sent him on to the hospital. The wife lost it and she thought he died and we have to put her in as well. It was not fun. so I had to put them in a nursing home after he almost died and was in the hospital for a month. All from Katrina thank you very much. He calls every day wantting me to go back down to take him back to the farm. that is so sad. But I will be going back soon.

[Betrock]

Derek-
Could we hear more about the article? Since I'm not a member, I could only read the abstract. The study sounds fascinating, and I would very much like to hear more about their conclusions.

Best to all,
Betrock

[Derek Ortt]

the abstract states many of their conclusions

the article is fairly dry at times, and gets into computations for maximum potential landfall intensity

[wxman57]

I looked at the map you guys were discussing ( http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/KatrinaWinds2.gif ) If I am reading the map correctly, I find it hard to believe that cat 3 winds would stop on the shorelines south of the Buras area and not continue across, then pick back up just offshore to the north and east of the land mass.

Also, according to the map, cat 3 winds stop just before moving inland on the Mississippi coast. According to the NHC advisories, Katrina was a 125 mph cat 3 at the mouth of the Pearl River. (For those unfamiliar with the area, the Pearl River is the border between LA and MS through Washington Parish, LA/Pearl River Co. MS and St. Tammany Parish LA/Hancock Co., MS.) According to the map being discussed, we're supposed to believe that she switched her winds off just before moving ashore? I find that to be quite questionable, especially considering that the NHC says she was at least 125 mph at MS landfall and even cat 2 40 miles south of Hattiesburg. ( here's a map of MS http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/united_s ... ppi_90.jpg I'm in Covington Co. and I can assure you, it was quite windy here)

To touch on the saffir simpson scale for a moment, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml I found it interesting to read that not until cat 3 did the scale mention trees being stripped of foilage. Well, folks, you should have seen the trees here...errrr the ones left standing. They were bare of foilage. Does that mean I think Katrina was still a 3 in my area? Nah, but she sure packed a whollop. I can't recall seeing that many trees down and the ones left standing bare. It looked like the middle of winter with the bare trees. Weird thing was, the evergreens were even bare. There were also numerous trees stripped of their bark!

While it's easy to argue and say she was this or she was that, the bottom line is that she was nothing short of the worst natural disaster this area has ever seen...be it that she was a 5 or a tropical depression. It will take YEARS for the area along the coast and WELL inland to fully recover from the destruction. Arguing at what cat she came in will do nothing to help those who lost everything. And like someone else mentioned. unless you've been through it yourself, lived it daily, you have no clue what it's like.

timNms,

First of all, it is quite possible that your area DID receive Category 3 winds, but not for the full 60 seconds required to be counted as a "sustained" Category 3 wind. Again, when we discuss a hurricane's winds, we are talking about the sustained winds that last for a minute or more. As I've stated before, wind gusts can sometimes be twice the sustained wind (for rapidly-weakening hurricanes at landfall).

As for the Cat 3 winds just "stopping" at the MS Coast, that is generally what happens as a hurricane moves ashore. The winds don't stop blowing at that intensity, they encounter immediate surface friction (buildings, trees, other terrain features). This frictional force almost immediately reduces a hurricane's surface winds (not aloft) at last 1 category and often more than that. So a hurricane's peak winds rarely travel inland more than a few miles before being reduced by surface friction. However, since it's only the surface winds which are immediately reduced, the stronger winds aloft often drop down to the ground for brief periods as gusts.

As for the HRD post-storm wind analysis map, that's the most expansive area of inland Cat 1 winds I've ever seen with a hurricane landfall. Looks like your area experienced sustained Cat 1 winds with gusts to Cat 3. It IS quite unbelievable what true sustained 74-95 mph winds with gusts to 110-130 mph can do to trees and homes. I know it must have been quite a frightening event to go through. It certainly was for my mother, who lives on the MS coast just east of Biloxi. Believe me, I know what the people on the coast were going through after Katrina. I couldn't find my mother for 5 days after Katrina. After that, she called me crying every day for 2 months asking when I could come to help. It wasn't until October 19th that I could finally leave the office (during Wilma, in fact) to help her start rebuilding.

Let's just hope the area can remain free of hurricanes for this year and for many years to come.

[MGC]

The HRD wind analysis depicts a finger of Cat-2 winds in eastern Harrison and western Jackson Counties. Other areas, Hancock and western Harrison Counties depict having Cat-1 winds. The area with the higher sustained winds should also have higher gusts. Well, will one of the experts here please explain to me why the severe wind damage in in western Harrison County and eastern Hancock County where the eastern eyewall of Katrina crossed the Mississippi Coast? It is quite obvious that wind damage in the alleged strongest sustained areas per HRD is quite and I repeat quite less than in the areas that depict less wind. This don't make any sense to me. Stronger wind yields greater wind damage. In Diamondhead, which experienced the eyewall of Katrina, easily 75% of large trees were destroyed. I noticed many recently constructed homes had major portions of there roofs blown off. Over in Biloxi or Ocean Springs, the extent of tree damage was much less and I didn't see one home with the roof ripped off. I just want an answer because looking at the HRD data just don't jive with the destruction on the ground, hence my skeptical opinion of the HRD data.......MGC














5

[storms in NC]

just want an answer because looking at the HRD data just don't jive with the destruction on the ground, hence my skeptical opinion of the HRD data.......MGC


AMAN

I have pic of over 100 year old oak tree Down everywhere

[KWT]

storms in NC, we have strong depressions in the UK that down Oak Trees hundreds of years old that have been downed, one storm in 1987 (p.K could confirm) downed thousands of Oak's as well as other trees with wind gusts that compare with a strong cat-1. you'd be suprised at the power of winds at say cat-1, even if we don't get hurricane shere there is usually at least one storm thats gusts into the cat-1 range!

Here is one picture with a max wind gust of about 90mph:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/hampshire/content/ ... 70x300.jpg

[Pearl River]

Yes, everyone suffered a great tragedy with Katrina, mine and my wifes family included. Yes Katrina was a cat3. We are not arguing those facts. There are some of us, myself included, that believe some of the information is skewed. IIf those arguments or disagreements are upsetting a few people, then I apologize. I, like everyone on this board has their own opinion, which by the grace of God is one of the things that makes us individuals, and we are entitled to express them.

The Katrina argument is old. No one will ever agree until the final analysis is done, however long it takes, and yes we need to stick to the topic of this thread.

[Audrey2Katrina]

It says Wallace,NC and I have family in LA 16 miles east of Amite La. and they didn't do do well thank you.

Good, gravy, I'm so sorry to hear that storms. I did see the NC on top; but, for some reason was thinking "relocation," since I'd just finished watching the aforementioned movie, and immediately stopped after seeing Wallace--seeing only that antebellum home. I truly hope and pray that all works out well for your parents and their farm.

A2K

[storms in NC]

storms in NC, we have strong depressions in the UK that down Oak Trees hundreds of years old that have been downed, one storm in 1987 (p.K could confirm) downed thousands of Oak's with wind gusts that compare with a strong cat-1.

I understand what you are saying. But it wasn't just a few here and there like it was here when we had bertha, fran bonnie, dinnis, floyd ect.. I lost 14 oaks just here on the farm from all above. But When I went down thought Miss. and La. I swear it looked like a bomb had been set off. Sorry But the destruction Was very very bad.

[Pearl River]

KWT wrote

storms in NC, we have strong depressions in the UK that down Oak Trees hundreds of years old that have been downed, one storm in 1987 (p.K could confirm) downed thousands of Oak's as well as other trees with wind gusts that compare with a strong cat-1. you'd be suprised at the power of winds at say cat-1, even if we don't get hurricane shere there is usually at least one storm thats gusts into the cat-1 range!

KWT you are correct, but there are also factors involved in that too, such as ground condtions, recent rain, depth of the root system.

[Pearl River]

Storms, I hope everything is well with them now. They have my prayers. We just got my 83yo dad back in his house in south Slidell. I know the feeling.

PR

[Extremeweatherguy]

storms in NC, we have strong depressions in the UK that down Oak Trees hundreds of years old that have been downed, one storm in 1987 (p.K could confirm) downed thousands of Oak's with wind gusts that compare with a strong cat-1.

I understand what you are saying. But it wasn't just a few here and there like it was here when we had bertha, fran bonnie, dinnis, floyd ect.. I lost 14 oaks just here on the farm from all above. But When I went down thought Miss. and La. I swear it looked like a bomb had been set off. Sorry But the destruction Was very very bad.

hundreds of oaks were downed in Winter Park, FL from 100-110mph wind gusts from Charley. It does not take a major hurricane force wind to do that kind of damage.

[KWT]

Pearl River, yes thats true the ground was a little soggy at the time, though I'd have thought the pre-hurricane squalls gave equally as much rain if not more so then the previous depressions in that storm, mind you how much of that tropical rainfall gets into the soil I don't know!
Mind you the gusts of 90-100mph were strong enough to rip of the roofs of some houses and flip caravans and so to cause destructive damage isn't really as hard as some would think. It was an impressive storm for the south though, we don't get gusts into the 80-90kt range often here. jus tout of intrest here s a satelite image of the system, wrapped up almost like a hurricane had it not been for the fronts it would have fooled me:

http://www.stvincent.ac.uk/Resources/We ... /16oct.jpg