Brief summaries of JB's thoughts

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB said tonight that another period to watch the Gulf for possible development is July 10th-20th. I will be out of town until the 12th, so let's hope that nothing (if anything at all), happens until after then.

[Ivanhater]

Come on extreme, give the updates!

[KatDaddy]

Extreme is out of town until the 12th hence no updates. See his post just above yours. I am sure we will get updates this later in the upcoming week.

[Ivanhater]

Extreme is out of town until the 12th hence no updates. See his post just above yours. I am sure we will get updates this later in the upcoming week.

Oh, I just saw he was in the forum today and thought he was back in town.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Extreme is out of town until the 12th hence no updates. See his post just above yours. I am sure we will get updates this later in the upcoming week.

Oh, I just saw he was in the forum today and thought he was back in town.

yes, I have been on a few times due to periods of brief computer access. These brief periods have not been long enough to write a summary of his predictions though. I will try to return to my regular posting of his thoughts by the middle part of this week. However, if the weather ramps up before the 12th, then I may be able to post quick summaries from time to time. As for today, he has not said much other than the fact that heat will spread over much of the nation this week, and that a large trough will be near 90W after July 25th. He also said that the Gulf may need to be watched for tropical activity later this week. Really though, not much to worry about at the moment.

UPDATE: Just found out that I will actually be returning tomorrow instead of the 12th.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Tonight Bastardi is saying that the wave in the central Atlantic will likely reach the NW Caribbean by the weekend. After this it could either move up into the Gulf or over into Mexico and will need to be watched.

[GeneratorPower]

what does he have to say about 96L?

[Extremeweatherguy]

what does he have to say about 96L?

sorry, I was so fast earlier that my post above yours was completely wrong. It was suppose to say central Atlantic and NW Caribbean (Instead of central Caribbean and NW Gulf). See my newly edited post to see what he had to say about 96L.

[stpeteweathergal]

Extremeweatherguy, saw on another thread that JB may have concerns about Florida soon. I eagerly await his update, thus your update. Trying to plan my July weekends and want to know when I'll have some indoor time. I'm not looking for any hurricanes...but I enjoy nice tropical showers that slowly soak the ground all day.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Extremeweatherguy, saw on another thread that JB may have concerns about Florida soon. I eagerly await his update, thus your update. Trying to plan my July weekends and want to know when I'll have some indoor time. I'm not looking for any hurricanes...but I enjoy nice tropical showers that slowly soak the ground all day.

Yes, JB seems excited about the system in the SE Bahamas this morning. He says it has a low level center and that convection is trying to fire around it. It should move toward FL and then may be even end up in the Gulf over the next few days. He will have a full update later with many more details.

[Starburst]

JB midday post :
He is still studying the low level system in the south eastern Bahamas due to it has moved out from underneath the thunderstorms. He is concerned with the spliting of the upper features and that it just might get pulled back into the convection in front of it as it makes its way towards Florida and then the Gulf. He will have a complete tropical post this evening.

[sunnyday]

Did he say what part of Fl?

[Starburst]

No he does not specify which part of Florida. He is not real excited about it but just concerned. One of us can update this thread tonight when he posts the complete tropical post tonight.

[Cookiely]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 111700
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
100 PM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES WITH A RIDGE AXIS
OVER N FL/S GA. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING UNDER THIS RIDGE IS SPARKING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT IS SEEN BY MULTIPLE OBS PLATFORMS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...BUT LIKE YESTERDAY EXPECT NORTH TO STILL SEE SOME SCT
SHOWERS BY LATE AFTN. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO QUIET DOWN AFTER
SUNSET...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE SOME LOW END SCT SHOWERS TILL
MIDNIGHT.

ONCE THIS TROPICAL WAVE PASSES...ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO COME IN ON WEDNESDAY. NAM CONTINUES
TO STRONGLY DIVERGE FROM OTHER MODELS BRINGING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TPC HAS NO MENTION OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE EVEN HAVING A CHANCE FOR DEVELOPING...AND AGREE WITH
THAT ASSESSMENT ON THIS SIDE. STILL...AREA CAN EXPECT A CONTINUED
HIGH CHANCE FOR RAINS FOR WED...AND EVEN SOME ON THU AS AREA WILL
STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR AFTN TSTMS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...AND THEN
WILL SEE VALUES RECOVER BACK TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM (THU NGT - TUES)...NAM SUITE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IMPACTING THE PENINSULA AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM...WITH THE LATEST 12Z RUN TAKING THESE
FEATURES FURTHER TO THE WEST OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THURSDAY...THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION
CONTINUES TO LOOK OVERDONE AND WILL CONTINUE TO IGNORE FOR NOW AND
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE GFS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS IN BUILDING
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING (THE BERMUDA HIGH) FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WEST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY...THEN MERGING
IT WITH ANOTHER STRONG BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE ATTENDANT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERS
ABOUT THE NORTHERN PENINSULA. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH EXPECT TO SEE A CONTINUATION OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT DEPICT SOME DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING FRIDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS DRIER SUBSIDENT AIR MASS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN LOWER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATEST GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR
LOWERING POPS TO ~20% DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT SEEING THAT
IT IS SUMMER YOU REALLY HAVE TO HAVE A GOOD REASON FOR IT NOT TO
RAIN OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
SCATTERED RANGE (~30%) POPS IN THE GRIDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

DURING SUNDAY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LESS SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
RESULT IN BETTER PROSPECTS FOR SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE 40% POPS WILL BE DEPICTED...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
30% POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL HANG ON
A BIT LONGER. ON MONDAY NEAR CLIMO-LEVEL POPS ARE EXPECTED ALL ZONES
AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOISTEN. BY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
THE GFS/DGEXS SHOWS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AN SOUTHEASTERN UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRADING SOME WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. IN RESPONSE TO VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SERN STATES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION
IS LOW RIGHT NOW...SO WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GRIDS
WITH NEAR CLIMO-LEVEL POPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S FAR
NORTH...AND MID/UPPER 70S CENTRAL/SOUTH.

&&

[Extremeweatherguy]

Basically, this is what JB said tonight (very summarized due to lack of time):

-The system near the Bahamas should have all elements come together for development as it crosses FL and ends up in the Gulf.

-models have showed a westward trend in where this will go once in the Gulf. Latest models have showed a trend from a Jacksonville hit to a MS hit (this implies to me that it looks like an eventual central or west Gulf issue).

-There is no telling whether or not this will actually develop into something tropical, but all the players will be there for it to do so.

He also mentioned the wave in the Atlantic and said the only way it will develop is if it can maintain itself as it moves west.

**He will have more details tomorrow.**

Bolded area = My opinion based on his post.

[KatDaddy]

Thanks Extreme and the bolding of text is perfect. You should have no complaints/concerns on the bolding format. We just want Joe B to have a fair assessment. Thanks again

[Rainband]

Your opinion?? Can you back this up with science?? It's not even a system and you have it hitting the central or west gom??

[Extremeweatherguy]

Your opinion?? Can you back this up with science?? It's not even a system and you have it hitting the central or west gom??

Well if you would have read the other points in my post, you would see that JB mentioned that models have been trending further west. Basically, that implied to me that he may think this could be a central or west Gulf problem. You can decide to interpret it anyway you'd like, this is just MY opinion on what that could mean (thus the bolding).

[Dean4Storms]

Simple science really, the GFS has the Atlantic ridge building back so if a system got into the GOM there is a possibility it could go further west, alot depends on timing if anything was too develop at all.

[Rainband]

I read the entire post I am still waiting for that western system we were supposed to see a few weeks ago. Thats why I asked for the science