Vigorous Central Atlantic Wave

[gatorcane]

looks like it is taking a more WNW path as of late - which is right on with what people have been saying....

[gatorcane]

Also, looks like it is the NHC vs the board - NHC says slow development if any (basically none right now), and the board in general says "yes."

But if you look at this season so far, the NHC has beaten the board 100% of the time....

so I will go with the NHC and say no TD for several days (if anything)....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Personally forecasting development at this stage is very hard. It could go any where. 1# The eastly shear could kill it(Its moving 15 to 20 mph)2# The dry air to its north could get into the system...

I say slow development for the next 24 to 36 hours. With then if it can develop more of a central core develop possibly into Beryl around 48 to 60 hours. Then the high should build to its north turning it westward around 60 to 72 hours.

I'm not saying that this is in stone.

[gatorcane]

Looks like dry air is starting to invade the system over the past couple of hours based on infrared sat pics of our system - convection has diminished in coverage some:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

water vapor:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Gatorcane thats how 2006 works...

[gatorcane]

Gatorcane thats how 2006 works...

what do you mean?

Dry air and shear have killed everything out there?

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like dry air is starting to invade the system over the past couple of hours based on infrared sat pics of our system - convection has diminished in coverage some:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

water vapor:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

true...there inst quite as much convection coverage as before but it is refiring closer to the center in the latest frames of the avn, along with i still dont see any blck or red anywhere inside of the storm...also, cyclonic turning is more evident now...IMO it looks actually a bit better organized

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Gatorcane thats how 2006 works...

what do you mean?

Dry air and shear have killed everything out there?

I agree the Atlatnic is very unfaverbale. But the models are trying to make it become more faverbale around 72 to 120 hours. Lets start rooting for Bryl!!!

[cheezyWXguy]

there maybe less convection now, but it looks as tho the convection is more intense...this storm definately has the chance to organize and become better organized, altho conditions are a little on the unfavorable side now, shear is decreasing as much as 10kts near the leewards...I say if it remains intact thru tomorrow, we may have invest 96L, and TDin the next 2-3 days or maybe even a little stronger, atleast IMO

[Ivanhater]

[The Hurricaner]

Better come before thursday. Im going on vacation to San Francisco for 2 weeks. I want to experience it too if anything...

And gatorcade its night time and that what happens it might not be conditions.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

MLC at 40 west...But convection is nearly gone

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The 00z gfs has backed off development. The cmc,Nogaps,Ukmet all don't do anything. The gfs/nam doe's make a powerful system for the eastern pacific.

[HenkL]

96L.INVEST now on this site: http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't think so theres no way it could be 993 millibars.

[Thunder44]

990
ABNT20 KNHC 090910
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN JUL 9 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM NEAR HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INCREASE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD.

A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Thunder44]

This is apparently 96L now. They are running models on it as of 6z. They have a pressure at 1010mb.

190
WHXX01 KWBC 090821
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060709 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060709 0600 060709 1800 060710 0600 060710 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 7.5N 39.9W 8.1N 42.8W 8.9N 45.6W 9.6N 48.2W
BAMM 7.5N 39.9W 8.4N 43.1W 9.6N 46.1W 10.7N 49.0W
A98E 7.5N 39.9W 7.8N 42.1W 8.3N 44.5W 8.9N 47.1W
LBAR 7.5N 39.9W 8.0N 42.6W 9.3N 45.3W 10.6N 48.2W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060711 0600 060712 0600 060713 0600 060714 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.1N 50.8W 10.8N 55.8W 11.1N 60.2W 11.5N 64.2W
BAMM 11.6N 51.8W 13.1N 57.0W 14.1N 62.0W 15.3N 67.4W
A98E 9.5N 49.8W 11.0N 54.9W 12.3N 59.6W 13.5N 63.8W
LBAR 11.7N 51.0W 13.7N 56.0W 14.9N 60.5W 15.6N 64.4W
SHIP 33KTS 38KTS 36KTS 35KTS
DSHP 33KTS 38KTS 36KTS 35KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 7.5N LONCUR = 39.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 7.3N LONM12 = 37.9W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 7.1N LONM24 = 35.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

93L when it was at 40 to 45 west was light years more organized this. Some pro's will disagree but it did have a LLC.

[cycloneye]

Ivan,now is a invest so this thread is locked.