Vigorous Central Atlantic Wave

HurricaneHunter914 · #41 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 6:15 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

Is it just me or does this have a spin to it?

ts_kakolina · #42 Postby **ts_kakolina** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 6:40 pm

Looks good to me

#43 Postby **TampaFl** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 6:42 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

Is it just me or does this have a spin to it?

No, it's just a wooble :lol:

J/K,, It does look rather impressive :eek:

Robert

marcane_1973 · #44 Postby **marcane_1973** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 6:46 pm

The question is now can it gain any latitude and hold together???

#45 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 6:47 pm

GFS has this wave near Puerto Rico in 4 days as a very strong wave.

#46 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 6:58 pm

WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 15N MOVING W
15-20 KT. CONVECTION CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE AND
IS SPREADING S OF THE ITCZ. WEAK TURNING IS ALSO NOTED ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 8N36W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
8N-10N BETWEEN 35W-38W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS AND WITHIN 60/90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM
38W-42W. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST THE WAVE TO AFFECT THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATE WEDNESDAY.

The above from the 8 PM discussion about this wave.

#47 Postby **TampaFl** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 7:07 pm

Intersting to note that the NHC did not mention it in the 5:30PM TWO. May be on the 10:30 TWO??

000
ABNT20 KNHC 082112
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS
NOT EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...BUT IT MAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...
PUERTO RICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA

#48 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 7:11 pm

Well, this wave is the best looking one at this point and I don't see anything other than the dry air to impede it from slowly organizing. It has been fighting the dry air to its north all along so I don't see that as much of a factor to this point.

Another thing, it should be reaching the Carib at about the same time as the MJO is expected into the Atlantic basin from the last time I looked into it.

ronjon · #49 Postby **ronjon** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 7:17 pm

It will be moving into higher sea surface temps in the next few days and there is some tropical cyclone potential indicated by CIRA.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 8atsst.png

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrfpr.gif

canegrl04 · #50 Postby **canegrl04** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 7:19 pm

WOW.Thats one mother of a wave :eek:

If this thing developes,look out

#51 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 7:25 pm

LSU Image

Full Disk Image

:uarrow:

Above are two diferent views of this wave and the MDR area including inside Africa.

#52 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 7:45 pm

I'm somewhat surprised that the 5:30 TWO from NHC didn't at least mention it. It is alot better looking than that ULL and has alot more potential. :eek:

#53 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 7:47 pm

yes, this wave looks rather impressive - best we have had yet....but it is still only early July - more than likely will go poof within the next 1-2 days.

Thunder44 · #54 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 8:10 pm

This wave is embedded in the ITCZ which is very far south for this time of year. It won't develop into anything until it moves further north.

#55 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 8:13 pm

Thunder44 wrote:This wave is embedded in the ITCZ which is very far south for this time of year. It won't develop into anything until it moves further north.

And further north in latitud it will have to deal with dry air.

Water Vapor

:uarrow:

#56 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 8:14 pm

Thunder44 wrote:This wave is embedded in the ITCZ which is very far south for this time of year. It won't develop into anything until it moves further north.

That just it, the GFS brings it more WNW and begins to develop it.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #57 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 8:16 pm

It appears to have a large area of moist air...In appears to have a MLC at 9.0/39.5 just southeast of the blow up of convection. Nice inflow pattern with it. The dry air appears to be far enough away from it for some slow development. Overall shear doe's not look to be a big problem...This kind of reminds me of Iris last year starting out. If it can keep the moisture around it as it tightes(Devleops a cirulaiton)instead of drawing it in like Iris. We may have something very interesting to watch.

Looking at the new frames it appears to be flaring up some nice convection near the center. I think this is looking very good.

canegrl04 · #58 Postby **canegrl04** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 8:24 pm

We may finally have something to keep the board pretty active if it can progress to a td 8-)

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #59 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 8:27 pm

I like what I see...Nice Anticyclone forming over it. If it can keep that dry air out we very likely will have something. As the convection fires it will release heat into the Atmosphere=tighten up. So we will see.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #60 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 08, 2006 8:32 pm

The 18z gfs shows it closing off but then opens it up again. It shows a northwest track fellowed by a west-northwest track.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 90_m.shtml

Vigorous Central Atlantic Wave

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