What is all this blob of stuff covering the state of florida
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What is all this blob of stuff covering the state of florida
Will this effect flights coming in to tampa tomorrow night around 7:30 pm? Worry wort here, hubby is flying in from ny.
0 likes
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jabber
- Category 2
- Posts: 688
- Joined: Mon Mar 24, 2003 5:36 pm
- Location: Raleigh, NC (former Boynton Beach, Fl)
From the Miami NWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
347 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2006
...ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY WITH STRONG STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...
.DISCUSSION...A REALLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS LEAD TO VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER LOCALLY YESTERDAY AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE AFFECTED ALL OF SOUTH FL THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY IS NOW AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...BUT SHOWERS CONTINUE EVEN ACROSS INTERIOR AND GULF
COASTAL SECTIONS. SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...FROM ABOUT A TAMPA TO CAPE LINE. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...WITH THE HELP OF CONTINUED UPPER SUPPORT...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY GOING ALONG/AHEAD OF
FRONT. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GULF COAST AND THE LAKE REGION EAST
TO PALM BEACH COUNTY. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ISOLATED
ACROSS THE SE COAST.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTUALLY SAGS TOWARDS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA
TOMORROW...WHILE SOUTH FL WILL CONTINUE IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
ALSO...UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO HAVE MORE INFLUENCE ON SOUTH FL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS IT AMPLIFIES FURTHER SOUTH (MORE SO THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED). GFS SHOWS GOOD PVA ACROSS SOUTH FL TOMORROW.
SO THE SET UP IS FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY SATURDAY. THE
ONLY THING I SEE WORKING AGAINST EXPLOSIVE ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY TO
SEVERE LEVELS...IS THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT GOOD SEA BREEZE
FORMATION AND LESS CONVERGENCE. STILL...AM EXPECTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG STORMS EAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
IF MORE HEATING TAKES PLACE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...WOULD HAVE
TO WATCH OUT FOR A SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL ADD STRONG STORM WORDING
AND INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO ZONES FOR TOMORROW.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
347 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2006
...ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY WITH STRONG STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...
.DISCUSSION...A REALLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS LEAD TO VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER LOCALLY YESTERDAY AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE AFFECTED ALL OF SOUTH FL THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY IS NOW AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...BUT SHOWERS CONTINUE EVEN ACROSS INTERIOR AND GULF
COASTAL SECTIONS. SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...FROM ABOUT A TAMPA TO CAPE LINE. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...WITH THE HELP OF CONTINUED UPPER SUPPORT...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY GOING ALONG/AHEAD OF
FRONT. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GULF COAST AND THE LAKE REGION EAST
TO PALM BEACH COUNTY. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ISOLATED
ACROSS THE SE COAST.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTUALLY SAGS TOWARDS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA
TOMORROW...WHILE SOUTH FL WILL CONTINUE IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
ALSO...UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO HAVE MORE INFLUENCE ON SOUTH FL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS IT AMPLIFIES FURTHER SOUTH (MORE SO THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED). GFS SHOWS GOOD PVA ACROSS SOUTH FL TOMORROW.
SO THE SET UP IS FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY SATURDAY. THE
ONLY THING I SEE WORKING AGAINST EXPLOSIVE ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY TO
SEVERE LEVELS...IS THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT GOOD SEA BREEZE
FORMATION AND LESS CONVERGENCE. STILL...AM EXPECTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG STORMS EAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
IF MORE HEATING TAKES PLACE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...WOULD HAVE
TO WATCH OUT FOR A SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL ADD STRONG STORM WORDING
AND INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO ZONES FOR TOMORROW.
0 likes
-
jabber
- Category 2
- Posts: 688
- Joined: Mon Mar 24, 2003 5:36 pm
- Location: Raleigh, NC (former Boynton Beach, Fl)
From the Miami NWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
347 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2006
...ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY WITH STRONG STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...
.DISCUSSION...A REALLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS LEAD TO VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER LOCALLY YESTERDAY AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE AFFECTED ALL OF SOUTH FL THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY IS NOW AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...BUT SHOWERS CONTINUE EVEN ACROSS INTERIOR AND GULF
COASTAL SECTIONS. SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...FROM ABOUT A TAMPA TO CAPE LINE. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...WITH THE HELP OF CONTINUED UPPER SUPPORT...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY GOING ALONG/AHEAD OF
FRONT. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GULF COAST AND THE LAKE REGION EAST
TO PALM BEACH COUNTY. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ISOLATED
ACROSS THE SE COAST.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTUALLY SAGS TOWARDS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA
TOMORROW...WHILE SOUTH FL WILL CONTINUE IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
ALSO...UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO HAVE MORE INFLUENCE ON SOUTH FL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS IT AMPLIFIES FURTHER SOUTH (MORE SO THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED). GFS SHOWS GOOD PVA ACROSS SOUTH FL TOMORROW.
SO THE SET UP IS FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY SATURDAY. THE
ONLY THING I SEE WORKING AGAINST EXPLOSIVE ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY TO
SEVERE LEVELS...IS THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT GOOD SEA BREEZE
FORMATION AND LESS CONVERGENCE. STILL...AM EXPECTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG STORMS EAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
IF MORE HEATING TAKES PLACE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...WOULD HAVE
TO WATCH OUT FOR A SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL ADD STRONG STORM WORDING
AND INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO ZONES FOR TOMORROW.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
347 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2006
...ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY WITH STRONG STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...
.DISCUSSION...A REALLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS LEAD TO VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER LOCALLY YESTERDAY AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE AFFECTED ALL OF SOUTH FL THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY IS NOW AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...BUT SHOWERS CONTINUE EVEN ACROSS INTERIOR AND GULF
COASTAL SECTIONS. SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...FROM ABOUT A TAMPA TO CAPE LINE. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...WITH THE HELP OF CONTINUED UPPER SUPPORT...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY GOING ALONG/AHEAD OF
FRONT. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GULF COAST AND THE LAKE REGION EAST
TO PALM BEACH COUNTY. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ISOLATED
ACROSS THE SE COAST.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTUALLY SAGS TOWARDS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA
TOMORROW...WHILE SOUTH FL WILL CONTINUE IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
ALSO...UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO HAVE MORE INFLUENCE ON SOUTH FL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS IT AMPLIFIES FURTHER SOUTH (MORE SO THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED). GFS SHOWS GOOD PVA ACROSS SOUTH FL TOMORROW.
SO THE SET UP IS FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY SATURDAY. THE
ONLY THING I SEE WORKING AGAINST EXPLOSIVE ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY TO
SEVERE LEVELS...IS THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT GOOD SEA BREEZE
FORMATION AND LESS CONVERGENCE. STILL...AM EXPECTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG STORMS EAST COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
IF MORE HEATING TAKES PLACE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...WOULD HAVE
TO WATCH OUT FOR A SEVERE POTENTIAL. WILL ADD STRONG STORM WORDING
AND INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO ZONES FOR TOMORROW.
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FXUS62 KTBW 071748
AFDTBW
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
148 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2006
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUN)...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GULF
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT ACROSS FL OVERNIGHT TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS
SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFT UP TO THE NORTH SOME DURING SUN. AS THE
AXIS MOVES OVER THE CWFA...DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
WILL EXIT TO THE E AND NE AS SOME DRYER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW.
AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN FL SAGS SOUTH INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL FL TONIGHT AND CENTRAL FL DURING SAT BEFORE REACHING
THE SOUTH CWFA LATE SAT. THE BOUNDARY WILL WILL CONTINUE INTO SUN
BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER
THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE BY LATE DAY SUN. GIVEN THE ENERGY ALOFT
AND DEEP MOISTURE BOTH ALONG THE FRONT AND APPROACHING FROM THE S
AND SW WILL KEEP LIKELY/NUMEROUS POPS IN OVER NIGHT AND THEN ALLOW
THEN TO TREND DOWN/ FROM NORTH TO SOUTH/ SAT INTO SUN AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH..LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK
FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS BERMUDA HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDS WEST AND
NORTH BEGINNING MONDAY...THE FAIRLY TYPICAL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL RESUME. COVERAGE COULD REMAIN A
BIT LOW (30/40 PERCENT) NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WHERE REMAINING DRY AIR
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING 500 MB TROUGH COULD HANG TOUGH...BUT
BEING DAY 3 PREFER TO LEAVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL TYPE VALUES (~50
PERCENT) AS IS. TUESDAY PROVIDES DEEPER MOISTURE BUT ALSO A BIT
MORE EASTERLY FLOW...SUGGESTING SCATTERED EARLY ACTIVITY INLAND
JUMPING TO OR NEAR THE COAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY LENDS CREEDENCE TO A CONTINUED 50/50
CHANCE/COVERAGE FORECAST.
THE EASTERLY WAVE CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST IN THE LATE TERM (DAYS
5-7) AND IS NOW JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BOOST PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE FOR A 12-18 HOUR PERIOD...BUT EXACTLY WHEN REMAINS FUZZY SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN SKY COVER AND LOWERING OF
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. FOUR OF THE PAST FIVE GFS RUNS MOVE
THE WAVE SOLIDLY INTO THE GULF UNDERNEATH THE STRONG 500 MB
RIDGE...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO RETURN ON THE BACKSIDE. THAT
SAID...EASTERLY FLOW WEAKENS A BIT BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH MAY
ALLOW BETTER COLLISIONS TOWARD THE COAST...SO HAVE ONLY DROPPED
COVERAGE BACK A SMIDGE. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD BE
RIGHT IN LINE WITH MID JULY.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS SHIFT AROUND AT 10 KTS OR LESS AS BOUNDARY MOVES
DOWN THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TSTMS PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS, HIGHER SEAS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY
AT 10KT OR 10-15KT FRO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION...WHILE CONVECTION IS WIDESPREAD ITS ORGANIZATION IS
NOT. MOST SITES HAVE MISSED THE MORE PERSISTENT ACTIVITY...BUT
JUST ABOUT ALL HAVE SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF THE FORECAST IFR
CONDITIONS (AS DEFINED BY THE TEMPO GROUP). THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
PROVIDE MORE OF THE SAME AS THE DEEPER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
REDEVELOP IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE THICKER MID
LEVEL CANOPY OVER THE NATURE COAST.
AS MENTIONED THIS MORNING...THINGS GET A BIT TRICKIER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AM GAINING CONFIDENCE IN BETTER ORGANIZED
BANDED PRECIPITATION...LOCALLY HEAVY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS (KSRQ-KTPA) AS UPPER JET DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER. THE
THINKING HERE IS SOMETIME BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z BUT PERHAPS EASING
SOUTH THEREAFTER. WILL DROP TO MVFR PREVAILING AND IFR TEMPO
CONDITIONS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW CONSECUTIVE HOURS
OF IFR WHERE THE BAND EVENTUALLY SETS UP. LEANING ON THE GFS
SOLUTION ARGUES FOR ADDITIONAL MORNING ACTIVITY FROM KSRQ SOUTH AND
PERHAPS MORE BARK (CLOUDS/LIGHTER RAINS) THAN BITE (HEAVY STORMS)
FARTHER NORTH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH...SOME DRIER AIR/ BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/ WILL PUSH AFTERNOON RH VALUES DOWN TO NEAR
40 % BOTH SAT & SUN ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 74 87 73 87 / 60 50 30 40
FMY 74 90 74 88 / 60 50 30 40
GIF 73 87 71 88 / 60 50 30 40
SRQ 74 87 73 87 / 60 50 30 40
BKV 69 87 67 89 / 60 30 20 20
SPG 76 86 75 87 / 60 50 30 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
AFDTBW
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
148 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2006
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUN)...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GULF
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT ACROSS FL OVERNIGHT TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS
SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFT UP TO THE NORTH SOME DURING SUN. AS THE
AXIS MOVES OVER THE CWFA...DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
WILL EXIT TO THE E AND NE AS SOME DRYER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW.
AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN FL SAGS SOUTH INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL FL TONIGHT AND CENTRAL FL DURING SAT BEFORE REACHING
THE SOUTH CWFA LATE SAT. THE BOUNDARY WILL WILL CONTINUE INTO SUN
BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER
THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE BY LATE DAY SUN. GIVEN THE ENERGY ALOFT
AND DEEP MOISTURE BOTH ALONG THE FRONT AND APPROACHING FROM THE S
AND SW WILL KEEP LIKELY/NUMEROUS POPS IN OVER NIGHT AND THEN ALLOW
THEN TO TREND DOWN/ FROM NORTH TO SOUTH/ SAT INTO SUN AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH..LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK
FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS BERMUDA HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDS WEST AND
NORTH BEGINNING MONDAY...THE FAIRLY TYPICAL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL RESUME. COVERAGE COULD REMAIN A
BIT LOW (30/40 PERCENT) NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WHERE REMAINING DRY AIR
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING 500 MB TROUGH COULD HANG TOUGH...BUT
BEING DAY 3 PREFER TO LEAVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL TYPE VALUES (~50
PERCENT) AS IS. TUESDAY PROVIDES DEEPER MOISTURE BUT ALSO A BIT
MORE EASTERLY FLOW...SUGGESTING SCATTERED EARLY ACTIVITY INLAND
JUMPING TO OR NEAR THE COAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY LENDS CREEDENCE TO A CONTINUED 50/50
CHANCE/COVERAGE FORECAST.
THE EASTERLY WAVE CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST IN THE LATE TERM (DAYS
5-7) AND IS NOW JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BOOST PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE FOR A 12-18 HOUR PERIOD...BUT EXACTLY WHEN REMAINS FUZZY SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN SKY COVER AND LOWERING OF
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. FOUR OF THE PAST FIVE GFS RUNS MOVE
THE WAVE SOLIDLY INTO THE GULF UNDERNEATH THE STRONG 500 MB
RIDGE...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO RETURN ON THE BACKSIDE. THAT
SAID...EASTERLY FLOW WEAKENS A BIT BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH MAY
ALLOW BETTER COLLISIONS TOWARD THE COAST...SO HAVE ONLY DROPPED
COVERAGE BACK A SMIDGE. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WAVE SHOULD BE
RIGHT IN LINE WITH MID JULY.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS SHIFT AROUND AT 10 KTS OR LESS AS BOUNDARY MOVES
DOWN THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TSTMS PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS, HIGHER SEAS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY
AT 10KT OR 10-15KT FRO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION...WHILE CONVECTION IS WIDESPREAD ITS ORGANIZATION IS
NOT. MOST SITES HAVE MISSED THE MORE PERSISTENT ACTIVITY...BUT
JUST ABOUT ALL HAVE SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF THE FORECAST IFR
CONDITIONS (AS DEFINED BY THE TEMPO GROUP). THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
PROVIDE MORE OF THE SAME AS THE DEEPER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
REDEVELOP IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE THICKER MID
LEVEL CANOPY OVER THE NATURE COAST.
AS MENTIONED THIS MORNING...THINGS GET A BIT TRICKIER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AM GAINING CONFIDENCE IN BETTER ORGANIZED
BANDED PRECIPITATION...LOCALLY HEAVY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS (KSRQ-KTPA) AS UPPER JET DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER. THE
THINKING HERE IS SOMETIME BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z BUT PERHAPS EASING
SOUTH THEREAFTER. WILL DROP TO MVFR PREVAILING AND IFR TEMPO
CONDITIONS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW CONSECUTIVE HOURS
OF IFR WHERE THE BAND EVENTUALLY SETS UP. LEANING ON THE GFS
SOLUTION ARGUES FOR ADDITIONAL MORNING ACTIVITY FROM KSRQ SOUTH AND
PERHAPS MORE BARK (CLOUDS/LIGHTER RAINS) THAN BITE (HEAVY STORMS)
FARTHER NORTH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH...SOME DRIER AIR/ BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/ WILL PUSH AFTERNOON RH VALUES DOWN TO NEAR
40 % BOTH SAT & SUN ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 74 87 73 87 / 60 50 30 40
FMY 74 90 74 88 / 60 50 30 40
GIF 73 87 71 88 / 60 50 30 40
SRQ 74 87 73 87 / 60 50 30 40
BKV 69 87 67 89 / 60 30 20 20
SPG 76 86 75 87 / 60 50 30 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
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Where's the cold front? Dewpoints in the 70s and south wind in the western panhandle. I can't find a north or northwest wind anywhere over the north half of the peninsula - ok the offshore buoy at 31.4-80.9. I don't think its gonna make it into central FL.
FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 07 2006
PANHANDLE FLORIDA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
PENSACOLA PTCLDY 82 70 66 S7 30.07R
PENSACOLA NAS MOCLDY 83 70 64 SW6 30.05F
MILTON NAS MOCLDY 83 72 69 S5 30.08R
CRESTVIEW TSTM 72 65 78 SW9G21 30.11R
VALPARAISO PTCLDY 82 72 69 S5 30.08R THUNDER
MARY ESTHER PTCLDY 82 72 70 S5 30.08R
DESTIN PTCLDY 84 71 65 VRB3 30.08R
PANAMA CITY CLOUDY 84 72 67 NW5 30.08R
TYNDALL AFB MOCLDY 81 73 78 S6 30.08R THUNDER
APALACHICOLA PTCLDY 82 69 64 SE6 30.08R
STATION/POSITION TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER
(F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)
28.8N 85.6W 82 85 160/ 4/ 4 1018.2S 2/ 8 2/ 8
28.5N 84.5W 82 85 100/ 8/ 10 1018.3R 2/ 5 2/ 5
NORTH FLORIDA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
MARIANNA PTCLDY 85 67 54 NE8 30.08R
TALLAHASSEE MOCLDY 80 70 71 SE7 30.10R
PERRY N/A 77 73 87 E5 30.08S
CROSS CITY N/A 77 70 79 CALM 30.10R
GAINESVILLE CLOUDY 74 69 85 E8 30.11R
MAYPORT NAS CLOUDY 74 71 91 NE9 30.11R
JACKSONVILLE CLOUDY 76 71 85 E5 30.11R
JAX NAS MOCLDY 76 69 79 CALM 30.12R
JAX CRAIG CLOUDY 75 70 84 CALM 30.11S
ST AUGUSTINE MOCLDY 73 72 94 CALM 30.12R FOG
STATION/POSITION TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER
(F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)
KEATON BEACH 76 80/ 7/ 8 1019.4R
31.4N 80.9W 79 83 40/ 19/ 21 1019.2R 5/ 6 2/ 8
30.0N 80.5W 77 82 20/ 6/ 8 1019.9F 3/ 8 2/ 8
ST AUGUSTINE 75 83 340/ 8/ 9 1020.2R
CENTRAL FLORIDA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
OCALA CLOUDY 75 72 88 E3 30.11R
THE VILLAGES N/A 75 75 100 E6 30.11R
LEESBURG LGT RAIN 76 71 85 E6 30.12S
SANFORD LGT RAIN 74 70 87 CALM 30.12R
ORLANDO EXEC CLOUDY 75 71 87 N6 30.13R
ORLANDO INTL CLOUDY 75 73 93 NE8 30.12R
WINTER HAVEN LGT RAIN 75 72 90 S5 30.13S
LAKELAND CLOUDY 77 72 83 CALM 30.12R
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
DAYTONA BEACH LGT RAIN 76 71 85 CALM 30.13R
JFK SPACE CTR LGT RAIN 75 75 100 SE2 30.11S
TITUSVILLE MOCLDY 75 N/A N/A CALM 30.11S FOG
PATRICK AFB LGT RAIN 77 73 88 CALM 30.11F
MELBOURNE CLOUDY 76 74 93 CALM 30.11S
VERO BEACH LGT RAIN 74 72 93 CALM 30.11F FOG
FT PIERCE LGT RAIN 75 72 90 SW6 30.12S
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BROOKSVILLE CLOUDY 76 70 82 SE5 30.12S
CLEARWATER LGT RAIN 79 73 83 SE10 30.11S
TAMPA MOCLDY 78 73 84 SE6 30.11S
VANDENBERG LGT RAIN 79 75 89 S3 30.12S
MACDILL AFB LGT RAIN 77 73 88 SE9 30.11S
ST PETERSBURG CLOUDY 77 72 84 S12 30.10S
SARASOTA LGT RAIN 75 70 83 SE7 30.11S
FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 07 2006
PANHANDLE FLORIDA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
PENSACOLA PTCLDY 82 70 66 S7 30.07R
PENSACOLA NAS MOCLDY 83 70 64 SW6 30.05F
MILTON NAS MOCLDY 83 72 69 S5 30.08R
CRESTVIEW TSTM 72 65 78 SW9G21 30.11R
VALPARAISO PTCLDY 82 72 69 S5 30.08R THUNDER
MARY ESTHER PTCLDY 82 72 70 S5 30.08R
DESTIN PTCLDY 84 71 65 VRB3 30.08R
PANAMA CITY CLOUDY 84 72 67 NW5 30.08R
TYNDALL AFB MOCLDY 81 73 78 S6 30.08R THUNDER
APALACHICOLA PTCLDY 82 69 64 SE6 30.08R
STATION/POSITION TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER
(F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)
28.8N 85.6W 82 85 160/ 4/ 4 1018.2S 2/ 8 2/ 8
28.5N 84.5W 82 85 100/ 8/ 10 1018.3R 2/ 5 2/ 5
NORTH FLORIDA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
MARIANNA PTCLDY 85 67 54 NE8 30.08R
TALLAHASSEE MOCLDY 80 70 71 SE7 30.10R
PERRY N/A 77 73 87 E5 30.08S
CROSS CITY N/A 77 70 79 CALM 30.10R
GAINESVILLE CLOUDY 74 69 85 E8 30.11R
MAYPORT NAS CLOUDY 74 71 91 NE9 30.11R
JACKSONVILLE CLOUDY 76 71 85 E5 30.11R
JAX NAS MOCLDY 76 69 79 CALM 30.12R
JAX CRAIG CLOUDY 75 70 84 CALM 30.11S
ST AUGUSTINE MOCLDY 73 72 94 CALM 30.12R FOG
STATION/POSITION TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER
(F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)
KEATON BEACH 76 80/ 7/ 8 1019.4R
31.4N 80.9W 79 83 40/ 19/ 21 1019.2R 5/ 6 2/ 8
30.0N 80.5W 77 82 20/ 6/ 8 1019.9F 3/ 8 2/ 8
ST AUGUSTINE 75 83 340/ 8/ 9 1020.2R
CENTRAL FLORIDA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
OCALA CLOUDY 75 72 88 E3 30.11R
THE VILLAGES N/A 75 75 100 E6 30.11R
LEESBURG LGT RAIN 76 71 85 E6 30.12S
SANFORD LGT RAIN 74 70 87 CALM 30.12R
ORLANDO EXEC CLOUDY 75 71 87 N6 30.13R
ORLANDO INTL CLOUDY 75 73 93 NE8 30.12R
WINTER HAVEN LGT RAIN 75 72 90 S5 30.13S
LAKELAND CLOUDY 77 72 83 CALM 30.12R
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
DAYTONA BEACH LGT RAIN 76 71 85 CALM 30.13R
JFK SPACE CTR LGT RAIN 75 75 100 SE2 30.11S
TITUSVILLE MOCLDY 75 N/A N/A CALM 30.11S FOG
PATRICK AFB LGT RAIN 77 73 88 CALM 30.11F
MELBOURNE CLOUDY 76 74 93 CALM 30.11S
VERO BEACH LGT RAIN 74 72 93 CALM 30.11F FOG
FT PIERCE LGT RAIN 75 72 90 SW6 30.12S
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BROOKSVILLE CLOUDY 76 70 82 SE5 30.12S
CLEARWATER LGT RAIN 79 73 83 SE10 30.11S
TAMPA MOCLDY 78 73 84 SE6 30.11S
VANDENBERG LGT RAIN 79 75 89 S3 30.12S
MACDILL AFB LGT RAIN 77 73 88 SE9 30.11S
ST PETERSBURG CLOUDY 77 72 84 S12 30.10S
SARASOTA LGT RAIN 75 70 83 SE7 30.11S
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Rainband
Your WelcomeNoah wrote:Rainband wrote:Most of the action is/will be south of TIA
Thanks rainband!!!!
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0
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Rainband
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