THat I know for sure!
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Dean4Storms
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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bigmoney755 wrote:TWO says no development is expected.
Whoops- saw that after I posted...
For now no development is expected according to the NHC (I am
giving credit to them here)
But I will continue to watch it nevertheless...though development is
not imminent, IMO it's possible...it's a wait and see situation.
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Thu Jul 06, 2006 9:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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HurricaneHunter914
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The NHC said that this will be another active year, but all they are doing is just saying,"Development is not expected". It may be true for some waves but looking at this wave, saying "development is not expected" just because pressures are high is kinda irresponisible. I mean look at this wave. At least give it credit for being persistent.
Last edited by HurricaneHunter914 on Thu Jul 06, 2006 9:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Stratosphere747
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Rainband
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HurricaneHunter914
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Okay maybe irresponsible is a little too strong, but when you see how favorable the conditions are in this waves path and how persistent its weird how the NHC turns the wave down like its nothing.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Rainband
I think they have the expertise to determine what is a threat and what isn't at this time.HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Okay maybe irresponsible is a little too strong, but when you see how favorable the conditions are in this waves path and how persistent its weird how the NHC turns the wave down like its nothing.
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beachbum_al
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If the NHC says development not expected, then development is not expected
for some reason. Is it shear? I'm just curious. At least for the near term
development is not expected. As for the future term...I do not know...
it will depend on shear and a number of other factors...such as those
mentioned earlier in this thread about the Bermuda High...
We'll see what happens...
In any case...the area of convection in the NW Caribbean looks intense...
though not characterized by imminent development.
for some reason. Is it shear? I'm just curious. At least for the near term
development is not expected. As for the future term...I do not know...
it will depend on shear and a number of other factors...such as those
mentioned earlier in this thread about the Bermuda High...
We'll see what happens...
In any case...the area of convection in the NW Caribbean looks intense...
though not characterized by imminent development.
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HurricaneHunter914
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I know they do, but is it wrong for me to express my own personal feelings or should I just tell a lie and say,"Oh the NHC is doing a wonderful job."
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HurricaneHunter914
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skysummit wrote:Hunter...I don't think saying that would be a lie. The NHC is doing a wonderful job this year. They nailed Alberto, and and they were correct about every other Invest.
What I meant is should I either express my real feelings or should I express fake feelings?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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SouthFloridawx
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 070220
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND FLORIDA ARE
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURES
REMAIN HIGH IN THE AREA AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Basically ... it means that current conditions show that tropical storm formation is not expected through saturday. I would agree with them. I think if something were to happen with would be saturday/sunday as the other wave approaches the the gulf. It will be interesting to see if my prediction of a surface trough developing.
ABNT20 KNHC 070220
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND FLORIDA ARE
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURES
REMAIN HIGH IN THE AREA AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Basically ... it means that current conditions show that tropical storm formation is not expected through saturday. I would agree with them. I think if something were to happen with would be saturday/sunday as the other wave approaches the the gulf. It will be interesting to see if my prediction of a surface trough developing.
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skysummit
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Well, maybe b/c of its close proximity to land and the direction it's moving, it will be over land so development is not expected. However....if a LLC does happen to form under the persistant convection, and that convection still persists tomorrow, maybe we'll hear a little something different from them....but for now, I'd have to agree....development is not likely in the short term.
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GeneratorPower
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S747 is right. I wouldn't call it irresponsible. Besides, it seems like they've been right up till now.
If there was ever a group of people with no hidden agenda and downright goodwill towards their "customers", it's the NHC. These guys are the absolute best in the nation and the world. Their expertise has been hard earned through years of study, years of experience, and working together to get results.
I've never seen anyone in government who cares more about people than Max Mayfield. These forecasters are the very definition of responsible. To call them irresponsible is, well, irresponsible in itself.
The TWO's are fulfilling their definition and purpose, i.e., a brief roundup of the tropical situation.
In reality I think we have not a few individuals around here who are FRUSTRATED at the lack of tropical development in June/July and are taking it out on the NHC and other forecasters. That's is just plain silly.
The tropics are not a bowling game where we try to spin up as much destruction as possible and then throw pins at the management when we don't get a strike. For those of us who are weather enthusiasts, yes, June and July have been a gutter ball, so-to-speak, if you must use that analogy.
But the management doesn't control the ball and pins. They just make sure everything works properly.
The NHC is doing a FINE job.
If there was ever a group of people with no hidden agenda and downright goodwill towards their "customers", it's the NHC. These guys are the absolute best in the nation and the world. Their expertise has been hard earned through years of study, years of experience, and working together to get results.
I've never seen anyone in government who cares more about people than Max Mayfield. These forecasters are the very definition of responsible. To call them irresponsible is, well, irresponsible in itself.
The TWO's are fulfilling their definition and purpose, i.e., a brief roundup of the tropical situation.
In reality I think we have not a few individuals around here who are FRUSTRATED at the lack of tropical development in June/July and are taking it out on the NHC and other forecasters. That's is just plain silly.
The tropics are not a bowling game where we try to spin up as much destruction as possible and then throw pins at the management when we don't get a strike. For those of us who are weather enthusiasts, yes, June and July have been a gutter ball, so-to-speak, if you must use that analogy.
But the management doesn't control the ball and pins. They just make sure everything works properly.
The NHC is doing a FINE job.
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whereverwx
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Rainband
BravoGeneratorPower wrote:S747 is right. I wouldn't call it irresponsible. Besides, it seems like they've been right up till now.
If there was ever a group of people with no hidden agenda and downright goodwill towards their "customers", it's the NHC. These guys are the absolute best in the nation and the world. Their expertise has been hard earned through years of study, years of experience, and working together to get results.
I've never seen anyone in government who cares more about people than Max Mayfield. These forecasters are the very definition of responsible. To call them irresponsible is, well, irresponsible in itself.
The TWO's are fulfilling their definition and purpose, i.e., a brief roundup of the tropical situation.
In reality I think we have not a few individuals around here who are FRUSTRATED at the lack of tropical development in June/July and are taking it out on the NHC and other forecasters. That's is just plain silly.
The tropics are not a bowling game where we try to spin up as much destruction as possible and then throw pins at the management when we don't get a strike. For those of us who are weather enthusiasts, yes, June and July have been a gutter ball, so-to-speak, if you must use that analogy.
But the management doesn't control the ball and pins. They just make sure everything works properly.
The NHC is doing a FINE job.
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HurricaneHunter914
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GeneratorPower wrote:S747 is right. I wouldn't call it irresponsible. Besides, it seems like they've been right up till now.
If there was ever a group of people with no hidden agenda and downright goodwill towards their "customers", it's the NHC. These guys are the absolute best in the nation and the world. Their expertise has been hard earned through years of study, years of experience, and working together to get results.
I've never seen anyone in government who cares more about people than Max Mayfield. These forecasters are the very definition of responsible. To call them irresponsible is, well, irresponsible in itself.
The TWO's are fulfilling their definition and purpose, i.e., a brief roundup of the tropical situation.
In reality I think we have not a few individuals around here who are FRUSTRATED at the lack of tropical development in June/July and are taking it out on the NHC and other forecasters. That's is just plain silly.
The tropics are not a bowling game where we try to spin up as much destruction as possible and then throw pins at the management when we don't get a strike. For those of us who are weather enthusiasts, yes, June and July have been a gutter ball, so-to-speak, if you must use that analogy.
But the management doesn't control the ball and pins. They just make sure everything works properly.
The NHC is doing a FINE job.
Okay I'm not fustrated with the lack of development I'm just suprised that the NHC said that development is not expected. What I was hoping for them to say is,"Develpment is not expected at this time". Because right now even though it is over land, conditions are favroable down the road.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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cycloneye
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I go much farther in the wording to say that NHC is doing and has done a (terrific) job especially with the track forecasts in the past few years.I know that in terms of the intensity forecast they can do better but in general I will take the NHC information as the #1 one to follow.
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HurricaneHunter914
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I'm sorry guys for causing an uproar. I'm just fuustrated with my older sister right now and I kinda took out my anger on the NHC.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.